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تصميم نموذج دعم قرار الاستبدال باستعمال المحاكاة

        تظهر الحاجة إلى الاستثمارات الرأسمالية من عدة مصادر كالحاجة إلى توسيع المنشآت الإنتاجية ، أو استجابة لحاجات المجتمع كشراء مكائن ومعدات لتخفيض تلوث الماء والهواء. أما أهم مصادر الحاجة لرؤوس الأموال فإنها تأتي من الموجودات الإنتاجية (باستثناء الأرض) ، حيث تستهلك هذه الموجودات (المكائن والآلات والعُدد) بشكل مستمر جراء الاستخدام ، فالمكائن، مثلا ، تسير دائما في طريقها نحو أكوام الخردة والبعض الآخر منها يصل إلى نهاية عمره الإنتاجي في نهاية كل سنة ، وأحيانا تصل الموجودات الإنتاجية إلى نهاية الطريق بسبب التقادم على الرغم من كونها صالحة للعمل ومن الأمثلة على ذلك الحواسيب الشخصية التي تتقادم بسرعة.

        إن أولى الأسبقيات التي تتطلب الحجم الأكبر من الاستثمارات الرأسمالية هي الحاجة لاستمرار عمل منشات الإنتاج (في قطاعي الصناعة والخدمات) بشكل كفوء ، فالموجودات الإنتاجية يمكن صيانتها أو استبدالها وبقدر تعلق الحاجة إلى رؤوس الأموال فان استبدال الموجودات يتطلب الجزء الأكبر من رؤوس الأموال المتاحة للشركة ، ولا تستهلك الموجودات الإنتاجية بأكملها مرة واحدة لان هذه الحالة لو تحققت فيكون من السهل معرفة تاريخ استبدالها ولكن بالمقابل تتضمن العديد من قرارات إدارة العمليات استثمار رؤوس أموال كبيرة ومن الأمثلة على ذلك توسيع الطاقة وإعادة الترتيب الداخلي والتكامل العمودي والأتمتة وتنصيب نظام خزين محوسب واستبدال تقنيات الإنتاج...... وغيرها.  ويستلزم الاستثمار في عمليات الاستبدال تعاون وظيفي متعدد Cross-Functional Coordination وبالأخص مع وظيفتي المالية والمحاسبة، إذ إن مثل هذه الاستثمارات المالية ينبغي أن تنسجم مع الخطط والقدرات المالية للشركة. فضلا عن ذلك ينبغي إخضاع الاستثمار في استبدال الموجودات الإنتاجية إلى واحد أو أكثر من أدوات التحليل لتثمين أو لتقييم اهميتها نسبة إلى البدائل المتاحة أمام الشركة.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 10 2016
Journal Name
ألمؤتمر الدولي العلمي الخامس للاحصائيين العرب/ القاهرة
Proposition of Modified Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Additive Model by using Simulation

Often phenomena suffer from disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. Thus emerged the need to include an estimation method implicit rating of these experimental units using the method of discrimination or create blocks for each item of these experimental units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more homogeneous. Because of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of sciences it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science genetic algorithm or ant colo

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations

Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model  that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison of Bayes Estimators for the parameter of Rayleigh Distribution with Simulation

   A comparison of double informative and non- informative priors assumed for the parameter of Rayleigh distribution is considered. Three different sets of double priors are included, for a single unknown parameter of Rayleigh distribution. We have assumed three double priors: the square root inverted gamma (SRIG) - the natural conjugate family of priors distribution, the square root inverted gamma – the non-informative distribution, and the natural conjugate family of priors - the non-informative distribution as double priors .The data is generating form three cases from Rayleigh distribution for different samples sizes (small, medium, and large). And Bayes estimators for the parameter is derived under a squared erro

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Tree regression (TR), and Negative binomial regression (NBR) by Using Simulation.

            In this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Poisson Regression and Conway Maxwell Poisson Models Using Simulation

Regression models are one of the most important models used in modern studies, especially research and health studies because of the important results they achieve. Two regression models were used: Poisson Regression Model and Conway-Max Well-  Poisson), where this study aimed to make a comparison between the two models and choose the best one between them using the simulation method and at different sample sizes (n = 25,50,100) and with repetitions (r = 1000). The Matlab program was adopted.) to conduct a simulation experiment, where the results showed the superiority of the Poisson model through the mean square error criterion (MSE) and also through the Akaiki criterion (AIC) for the same distribution.

Paper type:

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation

We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Partial Least Square Regression(PLSR) and Tree Regression by Using Simulation(RT).

This research discussed, the process of comparison between the regression model of partial least squares and tree regression, where these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "parameter statistics" of the partial least squares, which is adopted when the number of variables is greater than the number of observations and also when the number of observations larger than the number of variables, the second type is the "nonparametric statistic" represented by tree regression, which is the division of data in a hierarchical way. The regression models for the two models were estimated, and then the comparison between them, where the comparison between these methods was according to a Mean Square

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Partial Least Squares and Principal Components Methods by Simulation

Abstract                                                                                              

The methods of the Principal Components and Partial Least Squares can be regard very important methods  in the regression analysis, whe

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 20 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Design and Analysis of BIMD Double Clad MMF -MZI Using Optiwave Simulation

This work focused on principle of higher order mode excitation using in- line Double Clad Multi-Mode Mach-Zehnder Interferometer (DC-MM-MZI). The DC-MM-MZI was designed with 50 cm etched MMF. The etching length is 5cm. The tenability of this interferometer was studied using opt grating ver.4.2.2 and optiwave
ver. 7 simulator. After removing (25, 35, 45, 55) μm from MMF and immersing this segment of MMF with water bath contained distilled water and ethanol, in addition to, air. Pulsed laser source  centered at 1546.7nm ,pulse width 10ns and peak power 1.33mW was propagated via this interferometer Maximum modes were obtained in case of air surrounded media which are 9800 and 25 um removed cladding layer, with peak power 49.800 m

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Design a supply chain model for Baghdad Soft Drinks Company

In this paper, a mathematical model was built for the supply chain to reduce production, inventory, and transportation in Baghdad Company for Soft Drink. The linear programming method was used to solve this mathematical model. We reduced the cost of production by reduced the daily work hours, the company do not need the overtime hours to work at the same levels of production, and the costs of storage in the company's warehouses and agents' stores have been reduced by making use of the stock correctly, which guarantees reducing costs and preserving products from damage. The units transferred from the company were equal to the units demanded by the agents. The company's mathematical model also achieved profits by (84,663,769) by re

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