Preferred Language
Articles
/
jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
...Show More Authors

There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Feb 22 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
MRI images series segmentation using the geodesic deformable model
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Photovoltaic system DC series arc fault: a case study
...Show More Authors

<p>Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming increasingly popular; however, arc faults on the direct current (DC) side are becoming more widespread as a result of the effects of aging as well as the trend toward higher DC voltage levels, posing severe risk to human safety and system stability. The parallel arc faults present higher level of current as compared with the series arc faults, making it more difficult to spot the series arc. In this paper and for the aim of condition monitoring, the features of a DC series arc fault are analyzed by analysing the arc features, performing model’s simulation in PSCAD, and carrying out experimental studies. Various arc models are simulated and investigated; for low current arcs, the heur

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Apr 25 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Using Approximation Non-Bayesian Computation with Fuzzy Data to Estimation Inverse Weibull Parameters and Reliability Function
...Show More Authors

        In real situations all observations and measurements are not exact numbers but more or less non-exact, also called fuzzy. So, in this paper, we use approximate non-Bayesian computational methods to estimate inverse Weibull parameters and reliability function with fuzzy data. The maximum likelihood and moment estimations are obtained as non-Bayesian estimation. The maximum likelihood estimators have been derived numerically based on two iterative techniques namely “Newton-Raphson” and the “Expectation-Maximization” techniques. In addition, we provide compared numerically through Monte-Carlo simulation study to obtained estimates of the parameters and reliability function i

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Apr 08 1999
Journal Name
Abhath Al- Yarmouk [basic Sciences And Engineering]
Model for Predicting the Cracking Moment in Structural Concrete Members
...Show More Authors

Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Structural imbalance of Iraqi trade balance for the period (2014_1994)
...Show More Authors

Abstract:

     The use of economic resources enjoyed Iraq by especially oil resources, which constitute the main source of financial revenue, would the economic surplus outside the oil sector increases by mobilizing and rallying the labor power and turn it into an access capitalism, , was the cause of "the inaction of the productive sectors of the economy, made the investment planning process and even investment in human capital was not rationality with the increasing number of unemployed, particularly certificates and specializations high campaign, direction of the government towards market liberalism after 2003 through the, was focused not follow a clear economic policies, and the absence of planning

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Structural systems and expressional function for Airport Terminals' buildings
...Show More Authors

The research deals with the structures of the contemporary travelers' buildings in particular, and which is a functional complex installations where flexibility, technical and stereotypes play an important role as well as the human values These facilities must represent physiological and psychological comfort for travelers. TThose are facilities where architectural form plays a distinguished role in reversing the specialty and identity of the building. Hence the importance of the subject has been in forced, as a result for the need to study these facilities and to determine the impact and affects by the surrounding environment, to the extent of the urban, environmental, urban, social, and psychological levels. The importance of the resea

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Partial Differential Equations In Applied Mathematics
Determination of time-dependent coefficient in time fractional heat equation
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus (11)
Crossref (3)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Gulf Economist
The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
...Show More Authors

Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Robotics And Control (jrc)
Artificial Intelligence Based Deep Bayesian Neural Network (DBNN) Toward Personalized Treatment of Leukemia with Stem Cells
...Show More Authors

The dynamic development of computer and software technology in recent years was accompanied by the expansion and widespread implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) based methods in many aspects of human life. A prominent field where rapid progress was observed are high‐throughput methods in biology that generate big amounts of data that need to be processed and analyzed. Therefore, AI methods are more and more applied in the biomedical field, among others for RNA‐protein binding sites prediction, DNA sequence function prediction, protein‐protein interaction prediction, or biomedical image classification. Stem cells are widely used in biomedical research, e.g., leukemia or other disease studies. Our proposed approach of

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (2)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Mar 14 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Proposal to use the style of the slides in the estimation and forecasting Fertility rates in Iraq for the period 2012-2031
...Show More Authors

It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF