There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
In this paper, we investigate the connection between the hierarchical models and the power prior distribution in quantile regression (QReg). Under specific quantile, we develop an expression for the power parameter ( ) to calibrate the power prior distribution for quantile regression to a corresponding hierarchical model. In addition, we estimate the relation between the and the quantile level via hierarchical model. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with real data example.
The aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.
The present study is a linguistic study of comment clauses in the American Series „Friends‟ .Comment clauses refer to those clauses which comment on the content of the main clause or the attitude of the speaker towards the way of speaking .The problem of this study is to answer the following questions ; what types of comment clauses can be used in the face- to –face conversations , for what functions these comment clauses could be used , and how these comment clauses are used by the participants of these conversations . This study is a qualitative one . The study aims to investigate the types of comment clauses used in the American Series “Friends‟. The study also aims to investigate the pragmatic functions of these comment clause
... Show MoreThe theatre costume with the rest of the theatre show elements constitute a system of the meaning relations that produce a visual image that helps the recipient to decipher the theatre scene, let alone the manifestation of time in its levels (past, present, future) through the design construction of the theatre elements among which is the theatre costume. In order to know the way of manifesting time through the formulation of the theatre costumes, the research question has been put as follows: how to manifest time through the design construction for the theatre costumes unit, from which the research objective is derived as follows: Revealing the possibility of the designing unit of the costumes in manifesting the levels of time wit
... Show MoreSurvival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other
... Show MoreA common problem facing many Application models is to extract and combine information from multiple, heterogeneous sources and to derive information of a new quality or abstraction level. New approaches for managing consistency, uncertainty or quality of Arabic data and enabling e-client analysis of distributed, heterogeneous sources are still required. This paper presents a new method by combining two algorithms (the partitioning and Grouping) that will be used to transform information in a real time heterogeneous Arabic database environment
The Caputo definition of fractional derivatives introduces solution to the difficulties appears in the numerical treatment of differential equations due its consistency in differentiating constant functions. In the same time the memory and hereditary behaviors of the time fractional order derivatives (TFODE) still common in all definitions of fractional derivatives. The use of properties of companion matrices appears in reformulating multilevel schemes as generalized two level schemes is employed with the Gerschgorin disc theorems to prove stability condition. Caputo fractional derivatives with finite difference representations is considered. Moreover the effect of using the inverse operator which tr
This paper proposes a self organizing fuzzy controller as an enhancement level of the fuzzy controller. The adjustment mechanism provides explicit adaptation to tune and update the position of the output membership functions of the fuzzy controller. Simulation results show that this controller is capable of controlling a non-linear time varying system so that the performance of the system improves so as to reach the desired state in a less number of samples.