There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The modern steer-by-wire (SBW) systems represent a revolutionary departure from traditional automotive designs, replacing mechanical linkages with electronic control mechanisms. However, the integration of such cutting-edge technologies is not without its challenges, and one critical aspect that demands thorough consideration is the presence of nonlinear dynamics and communication network time delays. Therefore, to handle the tracking error caused by the challenge of time delays and to overcome the parameter uncertainties and external perturbations, a robust fast finite-time composite controller (FFTCC) is proposed for improving the performance and safety of the SBW systems in the present article. By lumping the uncertainties, parameter var
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.
In this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an
... Show MoreThe Mauddud reservoir, Khabaz oil field which is considered one of the main carbonate reservoirs in the north of Iraq. Recognizing carbonate reservoirs represents challenges to engineers because reservoirs almost tend to be tight and overall heterogeneous. The current study concerns with geological modeling of the reservoir is an oil-bearing with the original gas cap. The geological model is establishing for the reservoir by identifying the facies and evaluating the petrophysical properties of this complex reservoir, and calculate the amount of hydrocarbon. When completed the processing of data by IP interactive petrophysics software, and the permeability of a reservoir was calculated using the concept of hydraulic units then, there
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Travel Time estimation and reliability measurement is an important issues for improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks. The aim of this research is the estimation of total travel time and distribution analysis for three selected links in Palestine Arterial Street in Baghdad city. Buffer time index results in worse reliability conditions. Link (2) from Bab Al Mutham intersection to Al-Sakara intersection produced a buffer index of about 36% and 26 % for Link (1) Al-Mawall intersection to Bab Al- Mutham intersection and finally for link (3) which presented a 24% buffer index. These illustrated that the reliability get worst for link
... Show MoreA Tonido cloud server provides a private cloud storage solution and synchronizes customers and employees with the required cloud services over the enterprise. Generally, access to any cloud services by users is via the Internet connection, which can face some problems, and then users may encounter in accessing these services due to a weak Internet connection or heavy load sometimes especially with live video streaming applications overcloud. In this work, flexible and inexpensive proposed accessing methods are submitted and implemented concerning real-time applications that enable users to access cloud services locally and regionally. Practically, to simulate our network connection, we proposed to use the Raspberry-pi3 m
... Show MoreThe research problem revolves around the failure of Maysan Oil Company to have a strategy that enables it to keep up with work in a mysterious and highly dynamic environment. Therefore, the research aims to present a proposed strategy that is comprehensive and realistic to the Maysan Oil Company for the next five years (2020-2024) based on the position and conditions of the company Current and future by adopting the scientific foundations for formulating the strategy, and the importance of research lies in the company's situational analysis to know its internal capabilities from strengths or weaknesses and diagnosing the surrounding elements of opportunities or threats so that this analysis represents a s
... Show MoreIn this paper, Bayesian estimator for the parameter and reliability function of inverse Rayleigh distribution (IRD) were obtained Under three types of loss function, namely, square error loss function (SELF), Modified Square error loss function (MSELF) and Precautionary loss function (PLF),taking into consideration the informative and non- informative prior. The performance of such estimators was assessed on the basis of mean square error (MSE) criterion by performing a Monte Carlo simulation technique.
Cupressus sempervirens L., Cupressaceae, that is known as evergreen cypress, Mediterranean cypress and in Arabic called “al -Sarw. It is an evergreen, medium sized, longevity, and wide distributed over all the world. The plant represents an important member of conifer plants which characterized with aromatic leaves and cones. Cupressus sempervirens have been ethnobotanical uses as an antiseptic, relief of cough, astringent, antispasmodic, wound healing and anti-inflammatory. Aims of this work are phytochemical analysis, isolation and structural identification of Quercitroside (quercitrin) and essential oil in Iraqi C. sempervirens. Isolation of quercitrin was
... Show MoreHigh vehicular mobility causes frequent changes in the density of vehicles, discontinuity in inter-vehicle communication, and constraints for routing protocols in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). The routing must avoid forwarding packets through segments with low network density and high scale of network disconnections that may result in packet loss, delays, and increased communication overhead in route recovery. Therefore, both traffic and segment status must be considered. This paper presents real-time intersection-based segment aware routing (RTISAR), an intersection-based segment aware algorithm for geographic routing in VANETs. This routing algorithm provides an optimal route for forwarding the data packets toward their destination
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