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jeasiq-567
التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heat Production Rate and Radiation Hazard Indices from Radioactive Elements in Different Types of Natural Water in Nineveh Governorate, Iraq.
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The current study sheds light on the measurement and estimation of the radioactivity of radionuclides (238U, 226Ra, 232Th, and 40k) in natural waters of different regions of Nineveh Governorate in Iraq.15 samples were collected from different sources of natural waters, where gamma-ray spectroscopy was used using NaI)TI) sodium iodide detector to determine the concentration of radioactivity in the samples. According to the results, the radioactivity concentration in the tested water sample were ​​ranged from 0.36 ± 0.04-1.57 ± 0.09with an average value of 0.69 ± 0.06 Bq/l for 238U, and 2.9 ± 0.02-0.88 ± 0.03 with an average value of 0.65 ± 0.03 Bq/l for 226Ra Bq/l

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Suggested Reciprocal Relationship between Maximum, Minimum and Optimum Usable Frequency Parameters Over Iraqi Zone
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In this work, the relationship between the ionospheric parameters (Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF), Lowest Usable Frequency (LUF) and Optimum working Frequency (OWF)) has been studied for the ionosphere layer over the Iraqi zone. The capital Baghdad (44.42oE, 33.32oN) has been selected to represent the transmitter station and many other cities that spread over Iraqi region have represented as receiver stations. The REC533 communication model considered as one of the modern radio broadcasting version of ITU has been used to calculate the LUF parameter, while the MUF and OWF ionospheric parameters have been generated using ASAPS international communication model which represents one of the most advanced  and

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 30 2025
Journal Name
Samarra Journal Of Engineering Science And Research
Proposed low Xilinx FPGA power consumption for recursive NOMA applied in optical visible light communication
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Today the NOMA has exponential growth in the use of Optical Visible Light Communication (OVLC) due to good features such as high spectral efficiency, low BER, and flexibility. Moreover, it creates a huge demand for electronic devices with high-speed processing and data rates, which leads to more FPGA power consumption. Therefore; it is a big challenge for scientists and researchers today to recover this problem by reducing the FPGA power and size of the devices. The subject matter of this article is producing an algorithm model to reduce the power consumption of (Field Programmable Gate Array) FPGA used in the design of the Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access (NOMA) techniques applied in (OVLC) systems combined with a blue laser. However, The po

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Bayesian Estimation for The Shape Parameter of The Power Function Distribution (PFD-I) to Use Hyper Prior Functions
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The objective of this study is to examine the properties of Bayes estimators of the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution (PFD-I), by using two different prior distributions for the parameter θ and different loss functions that were compared with the maximum likelihood estimators. In many practical applications, we may have two different prior information about the prior distribution for the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution, which influences the parameter estimation. So, we used two different kinds of conjugate priors of shape parameter θ of the <

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Determination of Reservoir Hydraulic Flow Units and Permeability Estimation Using Flow Zone Indicator Method
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   Reservoir characterization plays a crucial role in comprehending the distribution of formation properties and fluids within heterogeneous reservoirs. This knowledge is instrumental in constructing an accurate three-dimensional model of the reservoir, facilitating predictions regarding porosity, permeability, and fluid flow distribution. Among the various methods employed for reservoir characterization, the hydraulic flow unit stands out as a widely adopted approach. By effectively subdividing the reservoir into distinct zones, each characterized by unique petrophysical and geological properties, hydraulic flow units enable comprehensive reservoir analysis. The concept of the flow unit is closely tied to the flow zone indicator, a cr

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
Arma
Safe Mud Weight Window Determination: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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ABSTRACT:. The Lower Cretaceous Zubair formation is comprised of sandstones intercalated with shale sequences. The main challenges that were encountered while drilling into this formation included severe wellbore instability-related issues across the weaker formations overlaying the reservoir section (pay zone). These issues have a significant impact on well costs and timeline. In this paper, a comprehensive geomechanical study was carried out to understand the causes of the wellbore failure and to improve drilling design and drilling performance on further development wells in the field. Failure criteria known as Mogi-Coulomb was used to determine an operating mud weight window required for safe drilling. The accuracy of the geomechanical

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research obj

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Recurrent Stroke Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms with Clinical Public Datasets: An Empirical Performance Evaluation
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Recurrent strokes can be devastating, often resulting in severe disability or death. However, nearly 90% of the causes of recurrent stroke are modifiable, which means recurrent strokes can be averted by controlling risk factors, which are mainly behavioral and metabolic in nature. Thus, it shows that from the previous works that recurrent stroke prediction model could help in minimizing the possibility of getting recurrent stroke. Previous works have shown promising results in predicting first-time stroke cases with machine learning approaches. However, there are limited works on recurrent stroke prediction using machine learning methods. Hence, this work is proposed to perform an empirical analysis and to investigate machine learning al

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Publication Date
Wed May 03 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models
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    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تقدير مصفوفة الحسابات القومية وتحديثها بإستخدام طريقة (C.E) دراسة مقارنة بين الطرق المستخدمة
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ليس جديداً القول بان هناك حاجة مستمرة ومتزايدة لاستخدام البيانات الاقتصادية المتسقة عن القطاعات المختلفة في الاقتصاد القومي لدعم وإسناد عملية التحليل الاقتصادي وتطوير النماذج الاقتصادية الكلية.

وتعرض مصفوفة الحسابات القومية Social Accounting Matrix  (SAM) اطاراً شاملاً من المعلومات الأساسية لهذا النوع من النماذج والتحليل. فهي تتضمن كلا من المستخدم- المنتج
(

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