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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Solving the multi-criteria: total completion time, total late work, and maximum earliness problem
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Within this research, The problem of scheduling jobs on a single machine is the subject of study to minimize the multi-criteria and multi-objective functions. The first problem, minimizing the multi-criteria, which include Total Completion Time, Total Late Work, and Maximum Earliness Time (∑𝐶𝑗, ∑𝑉𝑗, 𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥), and the second problem, minimizing the multi-objective functions ∑𝐶𝑗 + ∑𝑉𝑗 +𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥 are the problems at hand in this paper. In this study, a mathematical model is created to address the research problems, and some rules provide efficient (optimal) solutions to these problems. It has also been proven that each optimal solution for ∑𝐶𝑗 + ∑𝑉𝑗 + 𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥 is an effic

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 21 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
On Inference of Finite Mixture of Rayleigh Distribution by Gibbs Sampler and Metropolis-Hastings
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Inferential methods of statistical distributions have reached a high level of interest in recent years. However, in real life, data can follow more than one distribution, and then mixture models must be fitted to such data. One of which is a finite mixture of Rayleigh distribution that is widely used in modelling lifetime data in many fields, such as medicine, agriculture and engineering. In this paper, we proposed a new Bayesian frameworks by assuming conjugate priors for the square of the component parameters. We used this prior distribution in the classical Bayesian, Metropolis-hasting (MH) and Gibbs sampler methods. The performance of these techniques were assessed by conducting data which was generated from two and three-component mixt

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2025
Journal Name
Acta Logistica
A business continuity-based framework for risk management in smart supply chains: a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach
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The aim of this study is to develop a novel framework for managing risks in smart supply chains by enhancing business continuity and resilience against potential disruptions. This research addresses the growing uncertainty in supply chain environments, driven by both natural phenomena-such as pandemics and earthquakes—and human-induced events, including wars, political upheavals, and societal transformations. Recognizing that traditional risk management approaches are insufficient in such dynamic contexts, the study proposes an adaptive framework that integrates proactive and remedial measures for effective risk mitigation. A fuzzy risk matrix is employed to assess and analyze uncertainties, facilitating the identification of disr

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Tharthar-Tigris Canal on the Environmental Properties of the Tigris River Northern Baghdad, Iraq
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The present study is considered the first on this sector of the Tigris River after 2003. It is designed for two aims, the first is to demonstrate the seasonal variations in physicochemical parameters of Tharthar-Tigris Canal and Tigris River; the second is to explain the possible effects of canal on some environmental properties in the Tigris River. Water samples were being collected monthly. Six sampling sites were selected, two on Tharthar Canal and four along the Tigris River, one before the confluence as a control site and the others downstream the confluence with the canal. For a period from January to December 2020, nineteen physicochemical parameters were investigated including air and water temperature, turbidity, electrical cond

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of deficiencies in the standards and tools used for the management of the banking system in the emergence of the financial crisis by focusing on the Basel 1and 2
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The banking industry, as a result of the great challenges it faced, required continuous development of the principles of management, control and mechanisms used. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has played a leading role in legalizing many of these developments and has been able to contribute significantly to establishing a common framework for banking supervision, The central role in the various countries of the world is based on coordination between the various regulatory authorities and thinking about finding mechanisms to confront the risks faced by banks, recognizing the importance of the banking sector in the stability of domestic and international banking systems or the danger of this sector in the emergence of F

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOME AROMATIC AMINO ACIDS BY SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC MATHEMATICAL DERIVATIZATION
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A simple UV spectrophotometric differential derivatization method was performed for the simultaneous quantification of three aromatic amino acids of tryptophan, the polar tyrosine and phenylalanine TRP, TYR and PHE respectively. The avoidance of the time and reagents consuming steps of sample preparation or analyze separation from its bulk of interferences made the approach environmentally benign, sustainable and green. The linear calibration curves of differential second derivative were built at the optimum wavelength for each analyze (218.9, 236.1 and 222.5 nm) for PHE, TRP and TYR respectively. Quantification for each analyze was in the concentration range of (1.0– 45, 0.1–20.0 and 1.0– 50.0 μg/ml) at replicates of (n=3) with a re

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 14 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Proposal to use the style of the slides in the estimation and forecasting Fertility rates in Iraq for the period 2012-2031
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It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Simulation of five methods for parameter estimation and functionExponential distribution reliability
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The estimation process is one of the pillars of the statistical inference process as well as the hypothesis test, and the assessment is based on the collection of information and conclusions about the teacher or the community's teachers on the basis of the result
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دراسة أحصائية حول تقدير المساحة المزروعة لمحصول الشلب في محافظة النجف
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The objective of the research is to find the best method to estimate rice crop through out evaluating the applied methods of stratified random sampling .By using different sorts of sampling estimators, a comparison was held among the variances of the mean for simple random sampling, stratified random sampling(var()) and separate regression estimator. The results indicate that the separate regression estimator give best estimations. The approximate cum.f4/5 method was used to determine the optimum stratum boundaries, new strata was put and then var () was calculated .In comparison with strata used nowadays in central statistical organization, the new strata led to obvious decrease in the variance. The stratified mean wa

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heat Production Rate and Radiation Hazard Indices from Radioactive Elements in Different Types of Natural Water in Nineveh Governorate, Iraq.
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The current study sheds light on the measurement and estimation of the radioactivity of radionuclides (238U, 226Ra, 232Th, and 40k) in natural waters of different regions of Nineveh Governorate in Iraq.15 samples were collected from different sources of natural waters, where gamma-ray spectroscopy was used using NaI)TI) sodium iodide detector to determine the concentration of radioactivity in the samples. According to the results, the radioactivity concentration in the tested water sample were ​​ranged from 0.36 ± 0.04-1.57 ± 0.09with an average value of 0.69 ± 0.06 Bq/l for 238U, and 2.9 ± 0.02-0.88 ± 0.03 with an average value of 0.65 ± 0.03 Bq/l for 226Ra Bq/l

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