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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي

Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
On Estimating Reliability of a Stress – Strength Model in Case of Rayleigh Pareto Distribution

The stress – strength model is one of the models that are used to compute reliability. In this paper, we derived mathematical formulas for the reliability of the stress – strength model that follows Rayleigh Pareto (Rayl. – Par) distribution. Here, the model has a single component, where strength Y is subjected to a stress X, represented by moment, reliability function, restricted behavior, and ordering statistics. Some estimation methods were used, which are the maximum likelihood, ordinary least squares, and two shrinkage methods, in addition to a newly suggested method for weighting the contraction. The performance of these estimates was studied empirically by using simulation experimentation that could give more varieties for d

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Reliability of Stress - Strength and Its Estimation of Exponentiated Q-Exponential Distribution

      In this paper, we study a single stress-strength reliability system   , where Ƹ and ƴ are independently Exponentiated q-Exponential distribution. There are a few traditional estimating approaches that are  derived, namely  maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the Bayes (BE) estimators of R. A wide mainframe simulation is used to compare the performance of the proposed estimators using MATLAB program. A simulation study show that the Bayesian estimator is the best estimator than other estimation method under consideration using two criteria such as the “mean squares error (MSE)” and “mean absolutely error (MAPE)”.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
An Estimation of Survival and Hazard Rate Functions of Exponential Rayleigh Distribution

In this paper, we used the maximum likelihood estimation method to find the estimation values ​​for survival and hazard rate functions of the Exponential Rayleigh distribution based on a sample of the real data for lung cancer and stomach cancer obtained from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, Department of Medical City, Tumor Teaching Hospital, depending on patients' diagnosis records and number of days the patient remains in the hospital until his death.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Estimation for Two Parameters of Weibull Distribution under Generalized Weighted Loss Function

In this paper, Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution have been obtained using the generalized weighted loss function, based on Exponential priors. Lindley’s approximation has been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on theMonte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s).

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Organiational challenges and thier effect of organiational rituals

Administrative leaders conserned to understand the challenges which are faced their organizations and try to assimilate and adapt with the extent that achieves to it efficiency and effective- ess, and standing face to face to faceing any challenge.that threaten it’s existence thro- ugh using modern inputs reached to that level of these  challenges and applied the study on a sample deliberate random from teaching hospitals of the Directorate General for Health Baghdad Karkh, and the Directorate General for Health Baghdad Rusafa and the City of Medicine , The importance of t

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Benchmarking Framework for COVID-19 Classification Machine Learning Method Based on Fuzzy Decision by Opinion Score Method

     Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which is caused by SARS-CoV-2, has been announced as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), which results in the collapsing of the healthcare systems in several countries around the globe. Machine learning (ML) methods are one of the most utilized approaches in artificial intelligence (AI) to classify COVID-19 images. However, there are many machine-learning methods used to classify COVID-19. The question is: which machine learning method is best over multi-criteria evaluation? Therefore, this research presents benchmarking of COVID-19 machine learning methods, which is recognized as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In the recent century, the trend of developing

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi – Linear in Multiple Nonparametric Regression , Detection and Treatment Using Simulation

             It is the regression analysis is the foundation stone of knowledge of statistics , which mostly depends on the ordinary least square method , but as is well known that the way the above mentioned her several conditions to operate accurately and the results can be unreliable , add to that the lack of certain conditions make it impossible to complete the work and analysis method and among those conditions are the multi-co linearity problem , and we are in the process of detected that problem between the independent variables using farrar –glauber test , in addition to the requirement linearity data and the lack of the condition last has been resorting to the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Semi-parametric Methods in Partial Linear Single-Index Model

The research dealt with a comparative study between some semi-parametric estimation methods to the Partial linear Single Index Model using simulation. There are two approaches to model estimation two-stage procedure and MADE to estimate this model. Simulations were used to study the finite sample performance of estimating methods based on different Single Index models, error variances, and different sample sizes , and the mean average squared errors were used as a comparison criterion between the methods were used. The results showed a preference for the two-stage procedure depending on all the cases that were used

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the Nonparametric Regression Function Using Canonical Kernel

    This research aims to review the importance of estimating the nonparametric regression function using so-called Canonical Kernel which depends on re-scale the smoothing parameter, which has a large and important role in Kernel  and give the sound amount of smoothing .

We has been shown the importance of this method through the application of these concepts on real data refer to international exchange rates to the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen for the period from January 2007 to March 2010. The results demonstrated preference the nonparametric estimator with Gaussian on the other nonparametric and parametric regression estima

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION IN DOUBLY GEOMETRIC STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

A stochastic process {Xk, k = 1, 2, ...} is a doubly geometric stochastic process if there exists the ratio (a > 0) and the positive function (h(k) > 0), so that {α 1 h-k }; k ak X k = 1, 2, ... is a generalization of a geometric stochastic process. This process is stochastically monotone and can be used to model a point process with multiple trends. In this paper, we use nonparametric methods to investigate statistical inference for doubly geometric stochastic processes. A graphical technique for determining whether a process is in agreement with a doubly geometric stochastic process is proposed. Further, we can estimate the parameters a, b, μ and σ2 of the doubly geometric stochastic process by using the least squares estimate for Xk a

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