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jeasiq-567
التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the genetic algorithm to estimate the parameters function of the hypoexponential distribution by simulation
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In this research, the focus was placed on estimating the parameters of the Hypoexponential distribution function using the maximum likelihood method and genetic algorithm. More than one standard, including MSE, has been adopted for comparison by Using the simulation method

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 20 2020
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimating of Survival Function under Type One Censoring Sample for Mixture Distribution
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In this article, it is interesting to estimate and derive the three parameters which contain two scales parameters and one shape parameter of a new mixture distribution for the singly type one censored data which is the branch of right censored sample. Then to define some special mathematical and statistical properties for this new mixture distribution which is considered one of the continuous distributions characterized by its flexibility. Next,  using maximum likelihood estimator method for singly type one censored data based on the Newton-Raphson matrix procedure to find and estimate values of these three parameter by utilizing the real data taken from the National Center for Research and Treatment of Hematology/University of Mus

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION IN DOUBLY GEOMETRIC STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
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A stochastic process {Xk, k = 1, 2, ...} is a doubly geometric stochastic process if there exists the ratio (a > 0) and the positive function (h(k) > 0), so that {α 1 h-k }; k ak X k = 1, 2, ... is a generalization of a geometric stochastic process. This process is stochastically monotone and can be used to model a point process with multiple trends. In this paper, we use nonparametric methods to investigate statistical inference for doubly geometric stochastic processes. A graphical technique for determining whether a process is in agreement with a doubly geometric stochastic process is proposed. Further, we can estimate the parameters a, b, μ and σ2 of the doubly geometric stochastic process by using the least squares estimate for Xk a

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of some methods for estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model using the genetic algorithm with practical application
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Abstract

   Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model

    In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Design Sampling Plan when Life Time Follows Logistic Distribution
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Design sampling plan was and still one of most importance subjects because it give lowest cost  comparing with others, time live statistical distribution should be known to give best estimators for  parameters of sampling plan and get best sampling plan.

Research dell with design sampling plan when live time distribution follow Logistic distribution with () as location and shape parameters, using these information can help us getting (number of groups, sample size) associated with reject or accept the Lot

Experimental results for simulated data shows the least number of groups and sample size needs to reject or accept the Lot with certain probability of

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of survival models to study determinants liver cancer
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Cancer is one of the dangerous diseases that afflict a person through injury to cells and tissues in the body, where a person is vulnerable to infection in any age group, and it is not easy to control and multiply between cells and spread to the body. In spite of the great progress in medical studies interested in this aspect, the options for those with this disease are few and difficult, as they require significant financial costs for health services and for treatment that is difficult to provide.

This study dealt with the determinants of liver cancer by relying on the data of cancerous tumours taken from the Iraqi Center for Oncology in the Ministry of Health 2017. Survival analysis has been used as a m

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of estimations methods of the entropy function to the random coefficients for two models: the general regression and swamy of the panel data
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In this study, we focused on the random coefficient estimation of the general regression and Swamy models of panel data. By using this type of data, the data give a better chance of obtaining a better method and better indicators. Entropy's methods have been used to estimate random coefficients for the general regression and Swamy of the panel data which were presented in two ways: the first represents the maximum dual Entropy and the second is general maximum Entropy in which a comparison between them have been done by using simulation to choose the optimal methods.

The results have been compared by using mean squares error and mean absolute percentage error to different cases in term of correlation valu

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
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 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Center of Urban and Regional Planning for postgraduate Studies - University of Baghdad
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Project deal with the study of the suitability of the planning standards of the select sites for sports facilities for the holy city of Karbala and the extent of convergence and divergence between these standards and points of strength and weakness in each of these standards.

It was found that there was a lack of the   role given to the sports as a kind of luxury does not deserve to spend money and efforts, and was then incorporated with a lot of entertainment services by planners.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of the application of IFRS 15 "Revenue from contracts with customers" on the quality of financial reporting
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Abstract

This study aims at identifying the impact of the application of IFRS 15 "Revenue from contracts with customers on the quality of financial reporting, through application to faculty members in the accounting departments of Iraqi universities and auditors. The problem of the study was the multiplicity of accounting rules and standards Which deals with the issues of revenue recognition , as well as the lack of consistency of most of them with the common framework of financial accounting, which results in low quality of financial reporting in the current financial statements, where the formulation of one hypothesis was the lack of relationship of significant significance The application of IFRS 15 "Recognition of rev

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