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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Determination of Reservoir Hydraulic Flow Units and Permeability Estimation Using Flow Zone Indicator Method
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   Reservoir characterization plays a crucial role in comprehending the distribution of formation properties and fluids within heterogeneous reservoirs. This knowledge is instrumental in constructing an accurate three-dimensional model of the reservoir, facilitating predictions regarding porosity, permeability, and fluid flow distribution. Among the various methods employed for reservoir characterization, the hydraulic flow unit stands out as a widely adopted approach. By effectively subdividing the reservoir into distinct zones, each characterized by unique petrophysical and geological properties, hydraulic flow units enable comprehensive reservoir analysis. The concept of the flow unit is closely tied to the flow zone indicator, a cr

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heat Production Rate and Radiation Hazard Indices from Radioactive Elements in Different Types of Natural Water in Nineveh Governorate, Iraq.
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The current study sheds light on the measurement and estimation of the radioactivity of radionuclides (238U, 226Ra, 232Th, and 40k) in natural waters of different regions of Nineveh Governorate in Iraq.15 samples were collected from different sources of natural waters, where gamma-ray spectroscopy was used using NaI)TI) sodium iodide detector to determine the concentration of radioactivity in the samples. According to the results, the radioactivity concentration in the tested water sample were ​​ranged from 0.36 ± 0.04-1.57 ± 0.09with an average value of 0.69 ± 0.06 Bq/l for 238U, and 2.9 ± 0.02-0.88 ± 0.03 with an average value of 0.65 ± 0.03 Bq/l for 226Ra Bq/l

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Suggested Reciprocal Relationship between Maximum, Minimum and Optimum Usable Frequency Parameters Over Iraqi Zone
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In this work, the relationship between the ionospheric parameters (Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF), Lowest Usable Frequency (LUF) and Optimum working Frequency (OWF)) has been studied for the ionosphere layer over the Iraqi zone. The capital Baghdad (44.42oE, 33.32oN) has been selected to represent the transmitter station and many other cities that spread over Iraqi region have represented as receiver stations. The REC533 communication model considered as one of the modern radio broadcasting version of ITU has been used to calculate the LUF parameter, while the MUF and OWF ionospheric parameters have been generated using ASAPS international communication model which represents one of the most advanced  and

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimation of the lomax model based on upper record values under weighted LINEX loss function
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In this article, we developed a new loss function, as the simplification of linear exponential loss function (LINEX) by weighting LINEX function. We derive a scale parameter, reliability and the hazard functions in accordance with upper record values of the Lomax distribution (LD). To study a small sample behavior performance of the proposed loss function using a Monte Carlo simulation, we make a comparison among maximum likelihood estimator, Bayesian estimator by means of LINEX loss function and Bayesian estimator using square error loss (SE) function. The consequences have shown that a modified method is the finest for valuing a scale parameter, reliability and hazard functions.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 22 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Inferential Methods for the Dagum Regression Model
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The Dagum Regression Model, introduced to address limitations in traditional econometric models, provides enhanced flexibility for analyzing data characterized by heavy tails and asymmetry, which is common in income and wealth distributions. This paper develops and applies the Dagum model, demonstrating its advantages over other distributions such as the Log-Normal and Gamma distributions. The model's parameters are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MoM). A simulation study evaluates both methods' performance across various sample sizes, showing that MoM tends to offer more robust and precise estimates, particularly in small samples. These findings provide valuable insights into the ana

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research obj

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Recurrent Stroke Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms with Clinical Public Datasets: An Empirical Performance Evaluation
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Recurrent strokes can be devastating, often resulting in severe disability or death. However, nearly 90% of the causes of recurrent stroke are modifiable, which means recurrent strokes can be averted by controlling risk factors, which are mainly behavioral and metabolic in nature. Thus, it shows that from the previous works that recurrent stroke prediction model could help in minimizing the possibility of getting recurrent stroke. Previous works have shown promising results in predicting first-time stroke cases with machine learning approaches. However, there are limited works on recurrent stroke prediction using machine learning methods. Hence, this work is proposed to perform an empirical analysis and to investigate machine learning al

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
Arma
Safe Mud Weight Window Determination: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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ABSTRACT:. The Lower Cretaceous Zubair formation is comprised of sandstones intercalated with shale sequences. The main challenges that were encountered while drilling into this formation included severe wellbore instability-related issues across the weaker formations overlaying the reservoir section (pay zone). These issues have a significant impact on well costs and timeline. In this paper, a comprehensive geomechanical study was carried out to understand the causes of the wellbore failure and to improve drilling design and drilling performance on further development wells in the field. Failure criteria known as Mogi-Coulomb was used to determine an operating mud weight window required for safe drilling. The accuracy of the geomechanical

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The possibility of the application of international accounting standards to strengthen the role of oil companies in the region environment
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Abstract:

 The underlying objective of the international standard No. (6) to assist in accounting applications for the extractive industries, taking into consideration the goals and objectives contained in the sixteenth of the private International Accounting Standards criterion accounting for land, machinery and equipment, as well as Standard No. axes (38) relating to intangible assets, and in order to create a vision of a comprehensive development needs oil in order to exact evaluation of policies related to the particular needs and draw a comprehensive frameworks with respect to treatment of expenditures and revenues in the oil production industry, is also interested in Standard No. (6) within the primary objectiv

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
(Generalized Anxiety Disorder among Students of Baisc Education in Unv of Sulamina)
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The current research aims to measure Generalized Anxiety Disorder among students of the University of Sulaymaniyah / College of Basic Education, and to identify the significance of differences between sex, scientific specialization and age, and for that reason, the research sample of (102) male and female students was chosen in a random manner, and the researcher used the diagnostic criteria for the generalized anxiety disorder contained He mentioned it in the Statistical and Diagnostic Manual of Psychiatry, and the paragraphs of the scale were formulated according to those standards after they verify the conditions of honesty and consistency, and the use of appropriate statistical means. The results of the research indicated that genera

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