Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building  chain.

Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol

The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

Research aims to shed light on the concept of corporate failures , display and analysis the most distinctive models used to predicting corporate failure; with suggesting  a model to reveal the probabilities of corporate failures which including internal and external financial and non-financial indicators, A tested is made for the research objectivity and its indicators weight and by a  number of academics professionals experts, in addition to  financial analysts  and have concluded a set of conclusions ,  the most distinctive of them that failure is not considered a sudden phenomena for the company and its stakeholders , it is an Event passes through numerous stages; each have their symptoms that lead eve

One of the wellbore instability problems in vertical wells are breakouts in Zubair oilfield. Breakouts, if exceeds its critical limits will produce problems such as loss circulation which will add to the non-productive time (NPT) thus increasing loss in costs and in total revenues. In this paper, three of the available rock failure criteria (Mohr-Coulomb, Mogi-Coulomb and Modified-Lade) are used to study and predict the occurrence of the breakouts. It is found that there is an increase over the allowable breakout limit in breakout width in Tanuma shaly formation and it was predicted using Mohr-Coulomb criterion. An increase in the pore pressure was predicted in Tanuma shaly formation, thus; a new mud weight and casing pr

Brainstorming has been a common approach in many industries where the result is not always accurate, especially when procuring automobile spare parts. This approach was replaced with a scientific and optimized method that is highly reliable, hence the decision to optimize the inventory inflation budget based on spare parts and miscellaneous costs of the typical automobile industry. Some factors required to achieve this goal were investigated. Through this investigation, spare parts (consumables and non-consumables) were found to be mostly used in Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (IVM), Nigeria but incorporated miscellaneous costs to augment the cost of spare parts. The inflation rate was considered first due to the market's

The Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm is the most popular algorithm to estimate the Angle of Arrival (AOA) of the received signals. The analysis of this algorithm (MUSIC) with typical array antenna element ( ) shows that there are two false direction indication in the plan
aligned with the axis of the array. In this paper a suggested modification on array system is proposed by using two perpendiculars crossed dipole array antenna in spite of one array antenna. The suggested modification does not affect the AOA estimation algorithm. The simulation and results shows that the proposed solution overcomes the MUSIC problem without any effect on the performance of the system.

Exploring the B-Spline Transform for Estimating Lévy Process Parameters: Applications in Finance and Biomodeling Exploring the B-Spline Transform for Estimating Lévy Process Parameters: Applications in Finance and Biomodeling Letters in Biomathematics · Jul 7, 2025Letters in Biomathematics · Jul 7, 2025 Show publication This paper, presents the application of the B-spline transform as an effective and precise technique for estimating key parameters i.e., drift, volatility, and jump intensity for Lévy processes. Lévy processes are powerful tools for representing phenomena with continuous trends with abrupt changes. The proposed approach is validated through a simulated biological case study on animal migration in which movements are mo

This research aims to solve the nonlinear model formulated in a system of differential equations with an initial value problem (IVP) represented in COVID-19 mathematical epidemiology model as an application using new approach: Approximate Shrunken are proposed to solve such model under investigation, which combines classic numerical method and numerical simulation techniques in an effective statistical form which is shrunken estimation formula. Two numerical simulation methods are used firstly to solve this model: Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta and Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Methods. Then two approximate simulation methods are proposed to solve the current study. The results of the proposed approximate shrunken methods and the numerical

            In this paper the research represents an attempt of expansion in using the parametric and non-parametric estimators to estimate the median effective dose ( ED50 ) in the quintal bioassay and comparing between  these methods . We have Chosen three estimators for Comparison. The first estimator is
( Spearman-Karber )  and the second estimator is ( Moving Average ) and The Third estimator  is ( Extreme Effective Dose ) . We used a minimize Chi-square as a parametric method. We made a Comparison for these estimators by calculating the mean square error of (ED50) for each one of them and comparing it with the optimal the mean square