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jeasiq-567
التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Utilizing a Magnetic Abrasive Finishing Technique (MAF) Via Adaptive Nero Fuzzy(ANFIS)
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 Abstract

An experimental study was conducted for measuring the quality of surface finishing roughness using magnetic abrasive finishing technique (MAF) on brass plate which is very difficult to be polish by a conventional machining process where the cost is high and much more susceptible to surface damage as compared to other materials. Four operation parameters were studied, the gap between the work piece and the electromagnetic inductor, the current that generate the flux, the rotational Spindale speed and amount of abrasive powder size considering constant linear feed movement between machine head and workpiece. Adaptive Neuro fuzzy inference system  (ANFIS) was implemented for evaluation of a serie

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of deficiencies in the standards and tools used for the management of the banking system in the emergence of the financial crisis by focusing on the Basel 1and 2
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The banking industry, as a result of the great challenges it faced, required continuous development of the principles of management, control and mechanisms used. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has played a leading role in legalizing many of these developments and has been able to contribute significantly to establishing a common framework for banking supervision, The central role in the various countries of the world is based on coordination between the various regulatory authorities and thinking about finding mechanisms to confront the risks faced by banks, recognizing the importance of the banking sector in the stability of domestic and international banking systems or the danger of this sector in the emergence of F

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Tharthar-Tigris Canal on the Environmental Properties of the Tigris River Northern Baghdad, Iraq
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The present study is considered the first on this sector of the Tigris River after 2003. It is designed for two aims, the first is to demonstrate the seasonal variations in physicochemical parameters of Tharthar-Tigris Canal and Tigris River; the second is to explain the possible effects of canal on some environmental properties in the Tigris River. Water samples were being collected monthly. Six sampling sites were selected, two on Tharthar Canal and four along the Tigris River, one before the confluence as a control site and the others downstream the confluence with the canal. For a period from January to December 2020, nineteen physicochemical parameters were investigated including air and water temperature, turbidity, electrical cond

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing indicators of the results of applying forecasting methods for production plans (A case study at the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries)
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Economic organizations operate in a dynamic environment, which necessitates the use of quantitative techniques to make their decisions. Here, the role of forecasting production plans emerges. So, this study aims to the analysis of the results of applying forecasting methods to production plans for the past years, in the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries.

The Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries was chosen as a field of research for its role in providing distinguished products as well as the development and growth of its products and quality, and because it produces many products, and the study period was limited to ten years, from 2010 to 2019. This study used the descriptive approa

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Observation and Analysis the role of Convolutional Neural Network towards Lung Cancer Prediction
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Lung cancer is one of the most serious and prevalent diseases, causing many deaths each year. Though CT scan images are mostly used in the diagnosis of cancer, the assessment of scans is an error-prone and time-consuming task. Machine learning and AI-based models can identify and classify types of lung cancer quite accurately, which helps in the early-stage detection of lung cancer that can increase the survival rate. In this paper, Convolutional Neural Network is used to classify Adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and normal case CT scan images from the Chest CT Scan Images Dataset using different combinations of hidden layers and parameters in CNN models. The proposed model was trained on 1000 CT Scan Images of cancerous and non-c

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOME AROMATIC AMINO ACIDS BY SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC MATHEMATICAL DERIVATIZATION
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A simple UV spectrophotometric differential derivatization method was performed for the simultaneous quantification of three aromatic amino acids of tryptophan, the polar tyrosine and phenylalanine TRP, TYR and PHE respectively. The avoidance of the time and reagents consuming steps of sample preparation or analyze separation from its bulk of interferences made the approach environmentally benign, sustainable and green. The linear calibration curves of differential second derivative were built at the optimum wavelength for each analyze (218.9, 236.1 and 222.5 nm) for PHE, TRP and TYR respectively. Quantification for each analyze was in the concentration range of (1.0– 45, 0.1–20.0 and 1.0– 50.0 μg/ml) at replicates of (n=3) with a re

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Proposal to use the style of the slides in the estimation and forecasting Fertility rates in Iraq for the period 2012-2031
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It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Posterior Estimates for the Parameter of the Poisson Distribution by Using Two Different Loss Functions
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In this paper, Bayes estimators of Poisson distribution have been derived by using two loss functions: the squared error loss function and the proposed exponential loss function in this study, based on different priors classified as the two different informative prior distributions represented by erlang and inverse levy prior distributions and non-informative prior for the shape parameter of Poisson distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson distribution has also been derived. A simulation study has been fulfilled to compare the accuracy of the Bayes estimates with the corresponding maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the Poisson distribution based on the root mean squared error (RMSE) for different cases of the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Simulation of five methods for parameter estimation and functionExponential distribution reliability
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The estimation process is one of the pillars of the statistical inference process as well as the hypothesis test, and the assessment is based on the collection of information and conclusions about the teacher or the community's teachers on the basis of the result
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دراسة أحصائية حول تقدير المساحة المزروعة لمحصول الشلب في محافظة النجف
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The objective of the research is to find the best method to estimate rice crop through out evaluating the applied methods of stratified random sampling .By using different sorts of sampling estimators, a comparison was held among the variances of the mean for simple random sampling, stratified random sampling(var()) and separate regression estimator. The results indicate that the separate regression estimator give best estimations. The approximate cum.f4/5 method was used to determine the optimum stratum boundaries, new strata was put and then var () was calculated .In comparison with strata used nowadays in central statistical organization, the new strata led to obvious decrease in the variance. The stratified mean wa

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