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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 07 2025
Journal Name
Letters In Biomathematics
Exploring the B-Spline Transform for Estimating Lévy Process Parameters: Applications in Finance and Biomodeling
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Exploring the B-Spline Transform for Estimating Lévy Process Parameters: Applications in Finance and Biomodeling Exploring the B-Spline Transform for Estimating Lévy Process Parameters: Applications in Finance and Biomodeling Letters in Biomathematics · Jul 7, 2025Letters in Biomathematics · Jul 7, 2025 Show publication This paper, presents the application of the B-spline transform as an effective and precise technique for estimating key parameters i.e., drift, volatility, and jump intensity for Lévy processes. Lévy processes are powerful tools for representing phenomena with continuous trends with abrupt changes. The proposed approach is validated through a simulated biological case study on animal migration in which movements are mo

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 21 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
New techniques to estimate the solution of autonomous system
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This research aims to solve the nonlinear model formulated in a system of differential equations with an initial value problem (IVP) represented in COVID-19 mathematical epidemiology model as an application using new approach: Approximate Shrunken are proposed to solve such model under investigation, which combines classic numerical method and numerical simulation techniques in an effective statistical form which is shrunken estimation formula. Two numerical simulation methods are used firstly to solve this model: Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta and Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Methods. Then two approximate simulation methods are proposed to solve the current study. The results of the proposed approximate shrunken methods and the numerical

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Publication Date
Sun May 11 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Semi-Parametric Fuzzy Quantile Regression Model EstimationBased on Proposed Metric via Jensen–Shannon Distance
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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Cross Dipole Antennas Solution for Angle of Arrival Estimation
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The Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm is the most popular algorithm to estimate the Angle of Arrival (AOA) of the received signals. The analysis of this algorithm (MUSIC) with typical array antenna element ( ) shows that there are two false direction indication in the plan
aligned with the axis of the array. In this paper a suggested modification on array system is proposed by using two perpendiculars crossed dipole array antenna in spite of one array antenna. The suggested modification does not affect the AOA estimation algorithm. The simulation and results shows that the proposed solution overcomes the MUSIC problem without any effect on the performance of the system.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Parametric and Non –parametric Methods To Estimate Median Effective Dose ( ED5
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            In this paper the research represents an attempt of expansion in using the parametric and non-parametric estimators to estimate the median effective dose ( ED50 ) in the quintal bioassay and comparing between  these methods . We have Chosen three estimators for Comparison. The first estimator is
( Spearman-Karber )  and the second estimator is ( Moving Average ) and The Third estimator  is ( Extreme Effective Dose ) .
We used a minimize Chi-square as a parametric method. We made a Comparison for these estimators by calculating the mean square error of (ED50) for each one of them and comparing it with the optimal the mean square

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Standards Evaluate The Performance of Emergency Departments In Iraqi Hospitals / Case Study
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     This study aims to evaluate the performance of emergency departments according to international standards through studying the performance in some of Iraqi public hospitals, where the evaluation performance is considered one of the important topics that take a great deal of officials' attention, especially decision makers in health organizations.

      The researcher has derived the research idea from the importance of work in emergency department in hospitals and to what it provides of medical services and quick and immediate nursing care that help in patients' lifesaving, and it is the mirror that reflects the real image for the hospital

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Standards and quality controls for information technology applications to serve the Holy Quran
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the research goal is preparing a list of standard criteria and quality controls for information technology applications to serve the Holy Quran.

To achieve this goal, the researcher has built a list of criteria according to the following steps:

First - identify the key areas covered by the whole list which are:

1 – Standards of system building and implementing with the operating screens.

2 – Standards of display forms including audio and video presentation.

3 – Standards which are related to the program philosophy.

4 - Standards which are related to the program objectives.

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Publication Date
Thu May 14 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
“The role of parametric approach in design highest climatic performance buildings: local housing design patterns as a sample”
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In light of increasing demand for energy consumption due to life complexity and its requirements, which reflected on architecture in type and size, Environmental challenges have emerged in the need to reduce emissions and power consumption within the construction sector. Which urged designers to improve the environmental performance of buildings by adopting new design approaches, Invest digital technology to facilitate design decision-making, in short time, effort and cost. Which doesn’t stop at the limits of acceptable efficiency, but extends to the level of (the highest performance), which doesn’t provide by traditional approaches that adopted by researchers and local institutions in their studies and architectural practices, limit

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing indicators of the results of applying forecasting methods for production plans (A case study at the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries)
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Economic organizations operate in a dynamic environment, which necessitates the use of quantitative techniques to make their decisions. Here, the role of forecasting production plans emerges. So, this study aims to the analysis of the results of applying forecasting methods to production plans for the past years, in the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries.

The Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries was chosen as a field of research for its role in providing distinguished products as well as the development and growth of its products and quality, and because it produces many products, and the study period was limited to ten years, from 2010 to 2019. This study used the descriptive approa

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Observation and Analysis the role of Convolutional Neural Network towards Lung Cancer Prediction
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Lung cancer is one of the most serious and prevalent diseases, causing many deaths each year. Though CT scan images are mostly used in the diagnosis of cancer, the assessment of scans is an error-prone and time-consuming task. Machine learning and AI-based models can identify and classify types of lung cancer quite accurately, which helps in the early-stage detection of lung cancer that can increase the survival rate. In this paper, Convolutional Neural Network is used to classify Adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and normal case CT scan images from the Chest CT Scan Images Dataset using different combinations of hidden layers and parameters in CNN models. The proposed model was trained on 1000 CT Scan Images of cancerous and non-c

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