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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Optimization of Inventory Inflation Budget Based on Spare-parts and Miscellaneous Costs of a Typical Automobile Industry
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Brainstorming has been a common approach in many industries where the result is not always accurate, especially when procuring automobile spare parts. This approach was replaced with a scientific and optimized method that is highly reliable, hence the decision to optimize the inventory inflation budget based on spare parts and miscellaneous costs of the typical automobile industry. Some factors required to achieve this goal were investigated. Through this investigation, spare parts (consumables and non-consumables) were found to be mostly used in Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (IVM), Nigeria but incorporated miscellaneous costs to augment the cost of spare parts. The inflation rate was considered first due to the market's

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Publication Date
Sun May 11 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Semi-Parametric Fuzzy Quantile Regression Model EstimationBased on Proposed Metric via Jensen–Shannon Distance
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 21 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
New techniques to estimate the solution of autonomous system
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This research aims to solve the nonlinear model formulated in a system of differential equations with an initial value problem (IVP) represented in COVID-19 mathematical epidemiology model as an application using new approach: Approximate Shrunken are proposed to solve such model under investigation, which combines classic numerical method and numerical simulation techniques in an effective statistical form which is shrunken estimation formula. Two numerical simulation methods are used firstly to solve this model: Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta and Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Methods. Then two approximate simulation methods are proposed to solve the current study. The results of the proposed approximate shrunken methods and the numerical

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Parametric and Non –parametric Methods To Estimate Median Effective Dose ( ED5
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            In this paper the research represents an attempt of expansion in using the parametric and non-parametric estimators to estimate the median effective dose ( ED50 ) in the quintal bioassay and comparing between  these methods . We have Chosen three estimators for Comparison. The first estimator is
( Spearman-Karber )  and the second estimator is ( Moving Average ) and The Third estimator  is ( Extreme Effective Dose ) .
We used a minimize Chi-square as a parametric method. We made a Comparison for these estimators by calculating the mean square error of (ED50) for each one of them and comparing it with the optimal the mean square

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Cross Dipole Antennas Solution for Angle of Arrival Estimation
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The Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm is the most popular algorithm to estimate the Angle of Arrival (AOA) of the received signals. The analysis of this algorithm (MUSIC) with typical array antenna element ( ) shows that there are two false direction indication in the plan
aligned with the axis of the array. In this paper a suggested modification on array system is proposed by using two perpendiculars crossed dipole array antenna in spite of one array antenna. The suggested modification does not affect the AOA estimation algorithm. The simulation and results shows that the proposed solution overcomes the MUSIC problem without any effect on the performance of the system.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Standards and quality controls for information technology applications to serve the Holy Quran
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the research goal is preparing a list of standard criteria and quality controls for information technology applications to serve the Holy Quran.

To achieve this goal, the researcher has built a list of criteria according to the following steps:

First - identify the key areas covered by the whole list which are:

1 – Standards of system building and implementing with the operating screens.

2 – Standards of display forms including audio and video presentation.

3 – Standards which are related to the program philosophy.

4 - Standards which are related to the program objectives.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Standards Evaluate The Performance of Emergency Departments In Iraqi Hospitals / Case Study
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     This study aims to evaluate the performance of emergency departments according to international standards through studying the performance in some of Iraqi public hospitals, where the evaluation performance is considered one of the important topics that take a great deal of officials' attention, especially decision makers in health organizations.

      The researcher has derived the research idea from the importance of work in emergency department in hospitals and to what it provides of medical services and quick and immediate nursing care that help in patients' lifesaving, and it is the mirror that reflects the real image for the hospital

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Solving the multi-criteria: total completion time, total late work, and maximum earliness problem
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Within this research, The problem of scheduling jobs on a single machine is the subject of study to minimize the multi-criteria and multi-objective functions. The first problem, minimizing the multi-criteria, which include Total Completion Time, Total Late Work, and Maximum Earliness Time (∑𝐶𝑗, ∑𝑉𝑗, 𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥), and the second problem, minimizing the multi-objective functions ∑𝐶𝑗 + ∑𝑉𝑗 +𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥 are the problems at hand in this paper. In this study, a mathematical model is created to address the research problems, and some rules provide efficient (optimal) solutions to these problems. It has also been proven that each optimal solution for ∑𝐶𝑗 + ∑𝑉𝑗 + 𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥 is an effic

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 21 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
On Inference of Finite Mixture of Rayleigh Distribution by Gibbs Sampler and Metropolis-Hastings
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Inferential methods of statistical distributions have reached a high level of interest in recent years. However, in real life, data can follow more than one distribution, and then mixture models must be fitted to such data. One of which is a finite mixture of Rayleigh distribution that is widely used in modelling lifetime data in many fields, such as medicine, agriculture and engineering. In this paper, we proposed a new Bayesian frameworks by assuming conjugate priors for the square of the component parameters. We used this prior distribution in the classical Bayesian, Metropolis-hasting (MH) and Gibbs sampler methods. The performance of these techniques were assessed by conducting data which was generated from two and three-component mixt

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Observation and Analysis the role of Convolutional Neural Network towards Lung Cancer Prediction
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Lung cancer is one of the most serious and prevalent diseases, causing many deaths each year. Though CT scan images are mostly used in the diagnosis of cancer, the assessment of scans is an error-prone and time-consuming task. Machine learning and AI-based models can identify and classify types of lung cancer quite accurately, which helps in the early-stage detection of lung cancer that can increase the survival rate. In this paper, Convolutional Neural Network is used to classify Adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and normal case CT scan images from the Chest CT Scan Images Dataset using different combinations of hidden layers and parameters in CNN models. The proposed model was trained on 1000 CT Scan Images of cancerous and non-c

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