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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series
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        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling
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A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Multi-variables Multi -sites Model for Forecasting Hydrological Data Series
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A multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates i

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 31 2026
Journal Name
International Journal Of Intelligent Engineering And Systems
Low-complexity Deep Learning for Joint Channel-type Identification and SNR Estimation in MIMO-OFDM Using CNN–BRNN with LUT Labels
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Channel estimation (CE) is essential for wireless links but becomes progressively onerous as Fifth Generation (5G) Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) systems and extensive fading expand the search space and increase latency. This study redefines CE support as the process of learning to deduce channel type and signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) directly from per-tone Orthogonal Frequency-Division Multiplexing (OFDM) observations,with blind channel state information (CSI). We trained a dual deep model that combined Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) with Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks (BRNNs). We used a lookup table (LUT) label for channel type (class indices instead of per-tap values) and ordinal supervision for SNR (0–20 dB,5-dB steps). T

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Urban wetlands and their impact on city sustainability
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Urban wetlands are one of the complex systems that provide many economic, social and environmental services to the city. In this research, the most important services provided by urban wetlands from the point of view of the urban planner were reviewed, and the types of these lands and their divisions according to the type of services provided by each type were presented. Environmental is represented in its ability to reduce the dangers of floods, mitigate the climate and reduce its negative impacts, purify water and deplete a lot of suspended impurities and pollutants, and social services such as recreational areas and beautiful landscapes that inspire joy and reassurance in the soul, as well as cultural areas and sports activities for m

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Procurement Management of Power Plants Construction Projects in Iraq
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The government of Iraq states that despite the massive amounts invested in the power generating sector, the country has been plagued by power outages for more than three decades; One of the most common sources of the problem and significant impact on the waste of public funds in contractual processes. The Ministry of Planning issued the sectorial
specialized standard bidding documents (SSBD) of Design, Supply, and Installation of the Electromechanical Works (DSIoEW), which is primarily designed to support the Ministry of Electricity (MoE) by developing economic projects to improve the contractual process that led to raisings Iraqi electricity generation field. The research evaluates the impact of
applying the SSBD-DSIoEW for

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2024
Journal Name
Mathematics For Applications
DIRICHLET PROCESS ANALYSIS USING BIORTHOGONAL WAVELET: A STATISTICAL STUDY OF FINANCIAL MARKET
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The Dirichlet process is an important fundamental object in nonparametric Bayesian modelling, applied to a wide range of problems in machine learning, statistics, and bioinformatics, among other fields. This flexible stochastic process models rich data structures with unknown or evolving number of clusters. It is a valuable tool for encoding the true complexity of real-world data in computer models. Our results show that the Dirichlet process improves, both in distribution density and in signal-to-noise ratio, with larger sample size; achieves slow decay rate to its base distribution; has improved convergence and stability; and thrives with a Gaussian base distribution, which is much better than the Gamma distribution. The performance depen

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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Comparison of Approximate Estimation Methods for Logistics Distribution Teachers"
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The goal beyond this Research is to review methods that used to estimate Logistic distribution parameters. An exact estimators method which is the Moment method, compared with other approximate estimators obtained essentially from White approach such as: OLS, Ridge, and Adjusted Ridge as a suggested one to be applied with this distribution. The Results of all those methods are based on Simulation experiment, with different models and variety of  sample sizes. The comparison had been made with respect to two criteria: Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).  

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Multi-Dimensional Angle of Arrival Estimation by Circular Phased Adaptive Array Antennas
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In this paper the use of a circular array antenna with adaptive system in conjunction with modified Linearly Constrained Minimum Variance Beam forming (LCMVB) algorithm is proposed to meet the requirement of Angle of Arrival (AOA) estimation in 2-D as well as the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of estimated sources (Three Dimensional 3-D estimation), rather than interference cancelation as it is used for. The proposed system was simulated, tested and compared with the modified Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) technique for 2-D estimation. The results show the system has exhibited astonishing results for simultaneously estimating 3-D parameters with accuracy approximately equivalent to the MUSIC technique (for estimating elevation and a

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