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A Multi-variables Multi -sites Model for Forecasting Hydrological Data Series

A multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates it's capability of preserving the statistical characteristics of the observed series. The preservation was checked by using (t-test) and (F-test) for the monthly means and variances which gives 98.6% success for means and 81% success for variances. Moreover for the same data two well-known models were used for the sake of comparison with the developed model. The single-site singlevariable auto regressive first order and the multi-variable single-site models. The results of the three models were compared using (Akike test) which indicates that the developed model is more successful ,since it gave minimum (AIC) value for Sulaimania rainfall, Darbandikhan rainfall, and Darbandikhan evaporation, while Matalas model gave minimum (AIC) value for Sulaimania evaporation and Dokan rainfall, and Markov AR (1) model gave minimum (AIC) value for only Dokan evaporation).However, for these last cases the (AIC) given by the developed model is slightly greater than the minimum corresponding value.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling

A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model

Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagn

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Extractive Multi-Document Text Summarization Using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm Based Model

Automatic document summarization technology is evolving and may offer a solution to the problem of information overload. Multi-document summarization is an optimization problem demanding optimizing more than one objective function concurrently. The proposed work considers a balance of two significant objectives: content coverage and diversity while generating a summary from a collection of text documents. Despite the large efforts introduced from several researchers for designing and evaluating performance of many text summarization techniques, their formulations lack the introduction of any model that can give an explicit representation of – coverage and diversity – the two contradictory semantics of any summary. The design of gener

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Genetic Based Optimization Model for Extractive Multi-Document Text Summarization

Extractive multi-document text summarization – a summarization with the aim of removing redundant information in a document collection while preserving its salient sentences – has recently enjoyed a large interest in proposing automatic models. This paper proposes an extractive multi-document text summarization model based on genetic algorithm (GA). First, the problem is modeled as a discrete optimization problem and a specific fitness function is designed to effectively cope with the proposed model. Then, a binary-encoded representation together with a heuristic mutation and a local repair operators are proposed to characterize the adopted GA. Experiments are applied to ten topics from Document Understanding Conference DUC2002 datas

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 International Conference On Automation, Computational And Technology Management (icactm)
Multi-Resolution Hierarchical Structure for Efficient Data Aggregation and Mining of Big Data

Big data analysis is essential for modern applications in areas such as healthcare, assistive technology, intelligent transportation, environment and climate monitoring. Traditional algorithms in data mining and machine learning do not scale well with data size. Mining and learning from big data need time and memory efficient techniques, albeit the cost of possible loss in accuracy. We have developed a data aggregation structure to summarize data with large number of instances and data generated from multiple data sources. Data are aggregated at multiple resolutions and resolution provides a trade-off between efficiency and accuracy. The structure is built once, updated incrementally, and serves as a common data input for multiple mining an

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices

There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Applied Mathematical Modelling
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2024
Journal Name
Process Safety And Environmental Protection
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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
An Adaptive Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Multi-Robot Path Planning

This paper discusses an optimal path planning algorithm based on an Adaptive Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm (AMOPSO) for two case studies. First case, single robot wants to reach a goal in the static environment that contain two obstacles and two danger source. The second one, is improving the ability for five robots to reach the shortest way. The proposed algorithm solves the optimization problems for the first case by finding the minimum distance from initial to goal position and also ensuring that the generated path has a maximum distance from the danger zones. And for the second case, finding the shortest path for every robot and without any collision between them with the shortest time. In ord

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Multi-Objective Bat Algorithm for Solving Multi-Objective Non-linear Programming Problem

Human beings are greatly inspired by nature. Nature has the ability to solve very complex problems in its own distinctive way. The problems around us are becoming more and more complex in the real time and at the same instance our mother nature is guiding us to solve these natural problems. Nature gives some of the logical and effective ways to find solutions to these problems. Nature acts as an optimized source for solving the complex problems.  Decomposition is a basic strategy in traditional multi-objective optimization. However, it has not yet been widely used in multi-objective evolutionary optimization.   

Although computational strategies for taking care of Multi-objective Optimization Problems (MOPs) h

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