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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Studying of the Amount of Energy Required to Operate the Nursery Tray Planting Machine
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Abstract<p>A study was conducted at the University of Baghdad-College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - Department of Agricultural Machinery and Equipment for the agricultural season 2023 with the aim of designing, manufacturing and testing a machine used to planting agricultural nursery tray with different types of vegetable or horticultural seeds or forest seeds of various forms, and using different agricultural media where they are conducted The planting process is by pulling the seeds with a negative pressure vacuum system, and then they are feding to the dishes in their right place to complete the planting process. The study included three factors: The speed of the main belt in three l</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
GEOLOGICAL MODEL OF HARTHA FORMATION IN MAJNOON OILFIELD, SOUTHERN IRAQ
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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mathematical Relationship between Temperature Change and the Changing Consumption of the Product and Kerosene Consumption Forecasting for these years (2005-2015)
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The aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 15 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study of the Spectral Energy Distribution Model of the Protoplanetary Disk Geometric around the Brown Dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4
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The accretion circumstellar disk of young stars and the Brown dwarf plays an essential role in the formation and evaluation of the planet. Our main work in this paper is to investigate the geometrical shape model for the protoplanetary disk around one of the Brown Dwarfs. The photometric measurements for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4 were extracted from the Vizier archive. We used a numerical simulation to build a model of the spectral energy distribution of our target CFHT-BD-Tau 4. The spectral energy distribution model was fitted with observational data for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4. A transitional disk has been assumed around CFHT-BD-Tau 4. We obtained physical properties of the two disks and the size of the gap between them

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Structure Logistic Regression Model Of Anomalies Birth In Iraq Except Kurdistan Region, for 2015)
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Congenital anomalies commonly occur in humans, possibly visible. If these anomalies appear in visible parts in human body such as face, hands and feet. They may only appear after utilizing a number of special tests in order to show by means of the anomalies that occur in the internal organs of the body such as heart, stomach and kidneys.

    Research data have comprised accessible information in the anomalies birth statistics form situated of Health and Life Statistics section at the Ministry of Health and environment, where the number of anomalies births involved in the study (2603 anomalies birth) in Iraq, except Kurdistan region, at 2015. A two way-response logistic regression analysis h

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Develop Bactra system to determine Mutagens in the Environment, Food III: use emulators nitrogenous bases 5 - Bromeuruasil
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The results show that the compound affects the rest of the living cells after treatment for 15 minutes The influence Almtafr has had the effect BU less than the effect of NTG in the case of the registration of every of Struptomaysan resistance and rifampicin, although the first attribute more responsive

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 06 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Difficulties in learning and teaching Arabic to non-native speakers in the Kurdistan Region Types and solutions
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This research is a study of the difficulties of learning the Arabic language that faces Arabic language learners in the Kurdistan Region, by revealing its types and forms, which can be classified into two categories:

The first type has difficulties related to the educational system, the source of which is the Arabic language itself, the Arabic teacher or the learner studying the Arabic language or the educational curriculum, i.e. educational materials, or the educational process, i.e. the method used in teaching.

The second type: general difficulties related to the political aspect, the source of which is the policy of the Kurdistan Regional Government in marginalizing the Arabic language and replacing the forefront of th

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Counseling Services Offered to Gifted Students in Al-Baha Region from their Point Of View
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The current research aims to investigate the counseling services provided to gifted students in the Al-Baha region from their point of view, and to identify the differences in these views according to the students ’gender, educational stages, and the cities in which they study. The descriptive survey approach was followed in its relevance to the research objectives. Likewise, a random sample of gifted elementary, intermediate, and secondary school students was selected by the method of stratified sampling, as the sample reached (175) male and female students. The instrument of the research consisted of the questionnaire of counseling services presented to gifted students from their point of view prepared by researchers. The results sho

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Publication Date
Mon May 21 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Role of functional relations in the identification of regions
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The region is defined by the spatial dimension, which consists of a set of stabilizers (towns and villages). The concept of the territory requires conditions on the nature of functional relations and the mutual influence of the regions within the region. Any territory must be based on the interdependence and interaction between the mother city and its surrounding countryside and cities, and when the interdependence is strong and the interaction is clear, it helps to define the territory. The regions are divided on different bases. There are geographically or national homogeneous regions, and there are cultural regions that want to preserve their culture in terms of language or religion. There are administrative regions to manage

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