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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Inorganic And Organometallic Polymers And Materials
The Recent Advances of Metal–Organic Frameworks in Electric Vehicle Batteries
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High-power density supercapacitors and high-energy–density batteries have gotten a lot of interest since they are critical for the power supply of future electric cars, portable electronic gadgets, unmanned aircraft, and so on. The electrode materials used in supercapacitors and batteries have a significant impact on the practical energy and power density. Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have the outstanding electrochemical ability because of their ultrahigh porous structure, ease of functionalization, and great specific surface area. These features make it an intriguing electrode material with good electrochemical efficiency for high-storage batteries. Thus, this review summarizes current developments in MOFs-based materials as an elec

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
COMPARISON OF SOME NONPARAMETRIC METHODS TO DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF RADIATION DOSES FOR BREAST CANCER PATIENTS
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Radiation therapy plays an important role in improving breast cancer cases, in order to obtain an appropriateestimate of radiation doses number given to the patient after tumor removal; some methods of nonparametric regression werecompared. The Kernel method was used by Nadaraya-Watson estimator to find the estimation regression function forsmoothing data based on the smoothing parameter h according to the Normal scale method (NSM), Least Squared CrossValidation method (LSCV) and Golden Rate Method (GRM). These methods were compared by simulation for samples ofthree sizes, the method (NSM) proved to be the best according to average of Mean Squares Error criterion and the method(LSCV) proved to be the best according to Average of Mean Absolu

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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Federal and problematic relationship between the center and the region in Iraq
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The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 unleashed the repressed national aspirations of the Kurdish people. After the colonial powers, especially Britain, failed to establish a homeland of scattered Kurds in Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran, Iraq's Kurds managed to establish a semi-independent state in the north of the country Which lasted decades against the central authority in Baghdad in protest against what they call the forced integration of Kurds in the Iraqi state, and to obtain more rights and privileges as partners in this country. The federal region in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has become a reality, and it is eager not to strengthen its authority in return for the authority of the central government, but to annex other areas inhabited b

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Structure Logistic Regression Model Of Anomalies Birth In Iraq Except Kurdistan Region, for 2015)
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Congenital anomalies commonly occur in humans, possibly visible. If these anomalies appear in visible parts in human body such as face, hands and feet. They may only appear after utilizing a number of special tests in order to show by means of the anomalies that occur in the internal organs of the body such as heart, stomach and kidneys.

    Research data have comprised accessible information in the anomalies birth statistics form situated of Health and Life Statistics section at the Ministry of Health and environment, where the number of anomalies births involved in the study (2603 anomalies birth) in Iraq, except Kurdistan region, at 2015. A two way-response logistic regression analysis h

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impacts of Denial-of-Service Attack on Energy Efficiency Pulse Coupled Oscillator
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The Pulse Coupled Oscillator (PCO) has attracted substantial attention and widely used in wireless sensor networks (WSNs), where it utilizes firefly synchronization to attract mating partners, similar to artificial occurrences that mimic natural phenomena. However, the PCO model might not be applicable for simultaneous transmission and data reception because of energy constraints. Thus, an energy-efficient pulse coupled oscillator (EEPCO) has been proposed, which employs the self-organizing method by combining biologically and non-biologically inspired network systems and has proven to reduce the transmission delay and energy consumption of sensor nodes. However, the EEPCO method has only been experimented in attack-free networks without

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 27 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The extent to which the Iraqi environment responds to the requirements of IAS 12 in determining income tax: بحث تطبيقي في الهيئة العامة للضرائب/ قسم الشركات
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The importance of this research comes from the possibility of achieving positive interaction between accounting and tax through the interest in setting accounting standards and adapting them to local tax legislation, as the adoption of the application of the international standard (IAS 12) for income taxes helps to measure and determine the base for income tax and may lead to an increase in the tax outcome. Through the reliance of enterprises on many accounting bases, and that the tax administration in Iraq depends on the element of personal judgment in determining the tax base, which leads to lack of objectivity in determining the tax outcome, as the impact of the accounting standard (IAS 12) on the tax base and tax outcome is one of th

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 15 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study of the Spectral Energy Distribution Model of the Protoplanetary Disk Geometric around the Brown Dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4
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The accretion circumstellar disk of young stars and the Brown dwarf plays an essential role in the formation and evaluation of the planet. Our main work in this paper is to investigate the geometrical shape model for the protoplanetary disk around one of the Brown Dwarfs. The photometric measurements for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4 were extracted from the Vizier archive. We used a numerical simulation to build a model of the spectral energy distribution of our target CFHT-BD-Tau 4. The spectral energy distribution model was fitted with observational data for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4. A transitional disk has been assumed around CFHT-BD-Tau 4. We obtained physical properties of the two disks and the size of the gap between them

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using a novel approach to determine the pore pressure of West Qurna 15 oil well in South of Iraq
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Pore pressure means the pressure of the fluid filling the pore space of formations. When pore pressure is higher than hydrostatic pressure, it is named abnormal pore pressure or overpressure. When abnormal pressure occurred leads to many severe problems such as well kick, blowout during the drilling, then, prediction of this pressure is crucially essential to reduce cost and to avoid drilling problems that happened during drilling when this pressure occurred. The purpose of this paper is the determination of pore pressure in all layers, including the three formations (Yamama, Suliay, and Gotnia) in a deep exploration oil well in West Qurna field specifically well no. WQ-15 in the south of Iraq. In this study, a new appro

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