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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 27 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The extent to which the Iraqi environment responds to the requirements of IAS 12 in determining income tax: بحث تطبيقي في الهيئة العامة للضرائب/ قسم الشركات
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The importance of this research comes from the possibility of achieving positive interaction between accounting and tax through the interest in setting accounting standards and adapting them to local tax legislation, as the adoption of the application of the international standard (IAS 12) for income taxes helps to measure and determine the base for income tax and may lead to an increase in the tax outcome. Through the reliance of enterprises on many accounting bases, and that the tax administration in Iraq depends on the element of personal judgment in determining the tax base, which leads to lack of objectivity in determining the tax outcome, as the impact of the accounting standard (IAS 12) on the tax base and tax outcome is one of th

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Best estimation for the Reliability of 2-parameter Weibull Distribution
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This Research Tries To Investigate The Problem Of Estimating The Reliability Of Two Parameter Weibull Distribution,By Using Maximum Likelihood Method, And White Method. The Comparison Is done Through Simulation Process Depending On Three Choices Of Models (?=0.8 , ß=0.9) , (?=1.2 , ß=1.5) and (?=2.5 , ß=2). And Sample Size n=10 , 70, 150 We Use the Statistical Criterion Based On the Mean Square Error (MSE) For Comparison Amongst The Methods.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The best interpolation methods for evaluate water table pollution
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
COMPARISON OF SOME NONPARAMETRIC METHODS TO DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF RADIATION DOSES FOR BREAST CANCER PATIENTS
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Radiation therapy plays an important role in improving breast cancer cases, in order to obtain an appropriateestimate of radiation doses number given to the patient after tumor removal; some methods of nonparametric regression werecompared. The Kernel method was used by Nadaraya-Watson estimator to find the estimation regression function forsmoothing data based on the smoothing parameter h according to the Normal scale method (NSM), Least Squared CrossValidation method (LSCV) and Golden Rate Method (GRM). These methods were compared by simulation for samples ofthree sizes, the method (NSM) proved to be the best according to average of Mean Squares Error criterion and the method(LSCV) proved to be the best according to Average of Mean Absolu

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Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of performance of some industrial companies In the default reference comparison method Field study in the public companies of cement (Iraqi - North - South
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The increasing Global Competitive and the continuous improvement in information technology has led the way to the development of the modern systems and using modern techniques. One of these techniques is benchmarking style and Total Quality Management all of them are used to improve the production process and target rid from the losts on the other side.

The Benchmarking style has become a very important for all the industrial systems and the serving systems as well. And an instrument to improve their performance specially those which are suffering from the highness of the costs or waste in time on the other side.

This study aims to depend on virtual Benchmarking style in the eval

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using a novel approach to determine the pore pressure of West Qurna 15 oil well in South of Iraq
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Pore pressure means the pressure of the fluid filling the pore space of formations. When pore pressure is higher than hydrostatic pressure, it is named abnormal pore pressure or overpressure. When abnormal pressure occurred leads to many severe problems such as well kick, blowout during the drilling, then, prediction of this pressure is crucially essential to reduce cost and to avoid drilling problems that happened during drilling when this pressure occurred. The purpose of this paper is the determination of pore pressure in all layers, including the three formations (Yamama, Suliay, and Gotnia) in a deep exploration oil well in West Qurna field specifically well no. WQ-15 in the south of Iraq. In this study, a new appro

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Modifications to Accelerate the Iterative Algorithm for the Single Diode Model of PV Model
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This paper discussed the solution of an equivalent circuit of solar cell, where a single diode model is presented. The nonlinear equation of this model has suggested and analyzed an iterative algorithm, which work well for this equation with a suitable initial value for the iterative. The convergence of the proposed method is discussed. It is established that the algorithm has convergence of order six. The proposed algorithm is achieved with a various values of load resistance. Equation by means of equivalent circuit of a solar cell so all the determinations is achieved using Matlab in ambient temperature. The obtained results of this new method are given and the absolute errors is demonstrated.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Federal and problematic relationship between the center and the region in Iraq
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The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 unleashed the repressed national aspirations of the Kurdish people. After the colonial powers, especially Britain, failed to establish a homeland of scattered Kurds in Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran, Iraq's Kurds managed to establish a semi-independent state in the north of the country Which lasted decades against the central authority in Baghdad in protest against what they call the forced integration of Kurds in the Iraqi state, and to obtain more rights and privileges as partners in this country. The federal region in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has become a reality, and it is eager not to strengthen its authority in return for the authority of the central government, but to annex other areas inhabited b

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