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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Design and constructions laser - induced breakdown spectroscopy system to determine the fertility of north Iraqi soil
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Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) has been documented as an Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (AES) technique, utilising laser-induced plasma, in order to analyse elements in materials (gases, liquids and solid). The Nd:YAG laser passively Q-switched at 1064nm and 9ns pulse duration focused by convex lens with focal length 100 mm to generates power density 5.5×1012 Mw/mm2 with optical spectrum in the range 320-740 nm. Four soil samples were brought from different northern region of Iraq, northern region (Beiji, Sherkat, Serjnar and Zerkary).
The soil of the Northern region of Beige, Sherkat, Serjnar and Zarkary has abundant ratios of the elements P [0.08, 0.09, 0.18, 0.18] and Ca [0.61, 0.15, 0.92, 0.92] while it lack of Si [0.0

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 09 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of the Ecosystem Services of the Central Marsh in Southern Iraq
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Ecosystems provide humans with services that include benefits from food, fresh water, climate regulation, and socio-economic assets. The Mesopotamian marshlands are among the largest wetlands in the Middle East and they provide various benefits. However, ecosystem services of the Marshlands are consistently undervalued in national economic analysis and decision making. This study focusses on the Central Marshes, the first National Park in Iraq, and is the first attempt at valuing a series of ecosystem services from a valuable natural ecosystem in Iraq. We adopted the Toolkit for Ecosystem Services Site-Based Assessment (TESSA) for the determination of biophysical and economic values of services at the site level. Data on key ecosystem se

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Increasing Rehabilitation Program Using Electric Stimulation On Rehabilitating Knee Joint Working Muscles Due to ACL Tear In Athletes
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The research aimed at designing a rehabilitation program using electric stimulation for rehabilitating knee joint working muscles as a result of ACL tear using an apparatus developed by the researchers that stimulate the muscle vibration and work as well as the ability to rehabilitate the join in shorter periods. In addition to that, it aimed at identifying the effect of this program on rehabilitating the knee joint working muscles. The researchers used the experimental method on Baghdad clubs’ players who suffer from complete knee joint ACL tear aged (19 – 24) years old. The results showed that the training program developed the working muscles significantly achieving normal levels of activity.

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Wellbore Instability Analysis to Determine the Safe Mud Weight Window for Deep Well, Halfaya Oilfield
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Wellbore instability is one of the most common issues encountered during drilling operations. This problem becomes enormous when drilling deep wells that are passing through many different formations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate wellbore failure criteria by constructing a one-dimensional mechanical earth model (1D-MEM) that will help to predict a safe mud-weight window for deep wells. An integrated log measurement has been used to compute MEM components for nine formations along the studied well. Repeated formation pressure and laboratory core testing are used to validate the calculated results. The prediction of mud weight along the nine studied formations shows that for Ahmadi, Nahr Umr, Shuaiba, and Zubair formations

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Investigation of the performance of integrated intelligent models to predict the roughness of Ti6Al4V end-milled surface with uncoated cutting tool
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Abstract<p>Titanium alloys are broadly used in the medical and aerospace sectors. However, they are categorized within the hard-to-machine alloys ascribed to their higher chemical reactivity and lower thermal conductivity. This aim of this research was to study the impact of the dry-end-milling process with an uncoated tool on the produced surface roughness of Ti6Al4V alloy. This research aims to study the impact of the dry-end milling process with an uncoated tool on the produced surface roughness of Ti6Al4V alloy. Also, it seeks to develop a new hybrid neural model based on the training back propagation neural network (BPNN) with swarm optimization-gravitation search hybrid algorithms (PSO-GS</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 30 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Environmental Impacts
Analysis of the Effect of Heavy Elements in Polluted Industrial Water and its Environmental Treatment: An Applied Study on the Gas Power Plant/ 1 (Central Region) in Southern Baghdad and its Discharge into the Tigris River
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Water produced from power plants is one of the most important sources of water pollution, especially for areas like Baghdad, Contaminated industrial wastewater is a major environmental challenge due to the rapid growth of industries, leading to increased accumulation of harmful pollutants in water resources, the work is intended to study the impact of water generated from a power plant in the south on the level of heavy metals before and after the treatment process and after its discharge to the Tigris River. Objective is to determine the extent of heavy metals such as iron, copper, chromium, and zinc concentration in water extracted from various points and subsequently study the monthly variations of these elements with a view to assessmen

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 05 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Arab Statistical Union (jasu)
Using Quality Control and 6-Sigma to Determine The Quality of The Treated Wastewater Discharged From Some Water Purification Plants
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of Iraq Natural History Museum
GENOTYPE VERSUS PHENOTYPE TO DETERMINE THE DEFINITIVE IDENTIFICATION OF THE GENERA CHLORELLA BEIJERINCK, 1890 (CHLORELLACEAE) AND COELASTRELLA CHODAT, 1922 (SCENDESMACEAE)
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
GENOTYPE VERSUS PHENOTYPE TO DETERMINE THE DEFINITIVE IDENTIFICATION OF THE GENERA CHLORELLA BEIJERINCK, 1890 (CHLORELLACEAE) AND COELASTRELLA CHODAT, 1922 (SCENDESMACEAE)
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    Conventional identification of three coccoid green algae isolates was attempted to characterize the studied algae morphologically under compound microscope, which demonstrated confusional phenomenal convergence; all were classified microscopically as the green alga Chlorella vulgaris Beijerinck, 1890.

 

    Phylogenetic studies were conducted to settle the argument about the phenotype by studying the genotype. Genotype the promising field in advance classification by using 18S rRNA and compared to GenBank database using to search the related sequences. The determined sequences showed high a similarity to the strains registered in GenBank.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 03 2020
Journal Name
Modern Sport
Exercises based on the phosphogenic energy system to develop the ability to perform with precision and accuracy
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Each sport has its own energy requirements that differ from the energy requirements of other sports, and a different method is used in each of them, so the trainer must first rely on the principle of privacy in training first, that is, privacy according to the working energy system, that is, he defines the controlling energy system In that event, and how the muscles use the available energy to perform according to the energy production systems. As we find the serving skill is the first volleyball skill with which the team starts the match in order to be able to gain points directly, through knowledge it turns out that there is a weakness in the skill performance, especially the skill of serving and being The key to victory for volle

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