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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index
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Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data

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Publication Date
Mon May 21 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Role of functional relations in the identification of regions
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The region is defined by the spatial dimension, which consists of a set of stabilizers (towns and villages). The concept of the territory requires conditions on the nature of functional relations and the mutual influence of the regions within the region. Any territory must be based on the interdependence and interaction between the mother city and its surrounding countryside and cities, and when the interdependence is strong and the interaction is clear, it helps to define the territory. The regions are divided on different bases. There are geographically or national homogeneous regions, and there are cultural regions that want to preserve their culture in terms of language or religion. There are administrative regions to manage

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Best estimation for the Reliability of 2-parameter Weibull Distribution
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This Research Tries To Investigate The Problem Of Estimating The Reliability Of Two Parameter Weibull Distribution,By Using Maximum Likelihood Method, And White Method. The Comparison Is done Through Simulation Process Depending On Three Choices Of Models (?=0.8 , ß=0.9) , (?=1.2 , ß=1.5) and (?=2.5 , ß=2). And Sample Size n=10 , 70, 150 We Use the Statistical Criterion Based On the Mean Square Error (MSE) For Comparison Amongst The Methods.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Design and constructions laser - induced breakdown spectroscopy system to determine the fertility of north Iraqi soil
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Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) has been documented as an Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (AES) technique, utilising laser-induced plasma, in order to analyse elements in materials (gases, liquids and solid). The Nd:YAG laser passively Q-switched at 1064nm and 9ns pulse duration focused by convex lens with focal length 100 mm to generates power density 5.5×1012 Mw/mm2 with optical spectrum in the range 320-740 nm. Four soil samples were brought from different northern region of Iraq, northern region (Beiji, Sherkat, Serjnar and Zerkary).
The soil of the Northern region of Beige, Sherkat, Serjnar and Zarkary has abundant ratios of the elements P [0.08, 0.09, 0.18, 0.18] and Ca [0.61, 0.15, 0.92, 0.92] while it lack of Si [0.0

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mathematical Relationship between Temperature Change and the Changing Consumption of the Product and Kerosene Consumption Forecasting for these years (2005-2015)
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The aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The best interpolation methods for evaluate water table pollution
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Publication Date
Tue Apr 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Wellbore Instability Analysis to Determine the Safe Mud Weight Window for Deep Well, Halfaya Oilfield
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Wellbore instability is one of the most common issues encountered during drilling operations. This problem becomes enormous when drilling deep wells that are passing through many different formations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate wellbore failure criteria by constructing a one-dimensional mechanical earth model (1D-MEM) that will help to predict a safe mud-weight window for deep wells. An integrated log measurement has been used to compute MEM components for nine formations along the studied well. Repeated formation pressure and laboratory core testing are used to validate the calculated results. The prediction of mud weight along the nine studied formations shows that for Ahmadi, Nahr Umr, Shuaiba, and Zubair formations

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of Iraq Natural History Museum
GENOTYPE VERSUS PHENOTYPE TO DETERMINE THE DEFINITIVE IDENTIFICATION OF THE GENERA CHLORELLA BEIJERINCK, 1890 (CHLORELLACEAE) AND COELASTRELLA CHODAT, 1922 (SCENDESMACEAE)
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
GENOTYPE VERSUS PHENOTYPE TO DETERMINE THE DEFINITIVE IDENTIFICATION OF THE GENERA CHLORELLA BEIJERINCK, 1890 (CHLORELLACEAE) AND COELASTRELLA CHODAT, 1922 (SCENDESMACEAE)
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    Conventional identification of three coccoid green algae isolates was attempted to characterize the studied algae morphologically under compound microscope, which demonstrated confusional phenomenal convergence; all were classified microscopically as the green alga Chlorella vulgaris Beijerinck, 1890.

 

    Phylogenetic studies were conducted to settle the argument about the phenotype by studying the genotype. Genotype the promising field in advance classification by using 18S rRNA and compared to GenBank database using to search the related sequences. The determined sequences showed high a similarity to the strains registered in GenBank.

 

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Scopus (11)
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 05 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Arab Statistical Union (jasu)
Using Quality Control and 6-Sigma to Determine The Quality of The Treated Wastewater Discharged From Some Water Purification Plants
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