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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of performance of some industrial companies In the default reference comparison method Field study in the public companies of cement (Iraqi - North - South
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The increasing Global Competitive and the continuous improvement in information technology has led the way to the development of the modern systems and using modern techniques. One of these techniques is benchmarking style and Total Quality Management all of them are used to improve the production process and target rid from the losts on the other side.

The Benchmarking style has become a very important for all the industrial systems and the serving systems as well. And an instrument to improve their performance specially those which are suffering from the highness of the costs or waste in time on the other side.

This study aims to depend on virtual Benchmarking style in the eval

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Energy Production And Management
Reducing Energy Consumption in Iraqi Campuses with Passive Building Strategies: A Case Study at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering
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University campuses in Iraq are substantial energy consumers, with consumption increasing significantly during periods of high temperatures, underscoring the necessity to enhance their energy performance. Energy simulation tools offer valuable insights into evaluating and improving the energy efficiency of buildings. This study focuses on simulating passive architectural design for three selected buildings at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering (AKCOE) to examine the effectiveness of their cooling systems. DesignBuilder software was employed, and climatic data for a year in Baghdad was collected to assess the influence of passive architectural strategies on the thermal performance of the targeted buildings. The simulations revealed that the

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 06 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Difficulties in learning and teaching Arabic to non-native speakers in the Kurdistan Region Types and solutions
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This research is a study of the difficulties of learning the Arabic language that faces Arabic language learners in the Kurdistan Region, by revealing its types and forms, which can be classified into two categories:

The first type has difficulties related to the educational system, the source of which is the Arabic language itself, the Arabic teacher or the learner studying the Arabic language or the educational curriculum, i.e. educational materials, or the educational process, i.e. the method used in teaching.

The second type: general difficulties related to the political aspect, the source of which is the policy of the Kurdistan Regional Government in marginalizing the Arabic language and replacing the forefront of th

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Counseling Services Offered to Gifted Students in Al-Baha Region from their Point Of View
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The current research aims to investigate the counseling services provided to gifted students in the Al-Baha region from their point of view, and to identify the differences in these views according to the students ’gender, educational stages, and the cities in which they study. The descriptive survey approach was followed in its relevance to the research objectives. Likewise, a random sample of gifted elementary, intermediate, and secondary school students was selected by the method of stratified sampling, as the sample reached (175) male and female students. The instrument of the research consisted of the questionnaire of counseling services presented to gifted students from their point of view prepared by researchers. The results sho

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Combination of HLA OR and DQ molecules determine the susceptibility to Insuline Dependent Diabetes Mellitus in Iraqi patients
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Background: Type I diabetes mellitus is an autoimmune disorder characterized by destruction of insuline producing.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Develop Bactra system to determine Mutagens in the Environment, Food III: use emulators nitrogenous bases 5 - Bromeuruasil
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The results show that the compound affects the rest of the living cells after treatment for 15 minutes The influence Almtafr has had the effect BU less than the effect of NTG in the case of the registration of every of Struptomaysan resistance and rifampicin, although the first attribute more responsive

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health
Efficacy of MMP-8 Level in Gingival Crevicular Fluid to Predict the Outcome of Nonsurgical Periodontal Treatment: A Systematic Review
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Purpose: To explore whether baseline matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-8 level in gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) (exposure) can predict the outcome (reduction in probing pocket depth (PPD) (outcome)) of nonsurgical periodontal therapy (NSPT) (manual or ultrasonic or both) in patients with periodontitis (population/problem) after 3 months. Methods: Six databases (PubMed, Cochrane library, ProQuest, Ovid, Scopus, EBSCO) were searched for relevant articles published until 30 July 2021. Retrieved articles were passed through a three-phase filtration process on the basis of the eligibility criteria. The primary outcome was the change in PPD after 3 months. Quality of the selected articles was assessed using Cochrane Risk of Bias tool (RoB2

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Use of Multi-Response Logistic Regression to Determine the Factors Affecting the Radiation Values of Light-Curing Units in Private Dental Clinics in Erbil
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     This study aims to determine the exposure of dentists to radiation resulting from the use of light therapy units and to assess their risk and impact on dental clinics.  This study was conducted in private dental clinics in the city of Erbil in northern Iraq. Surveys were conducted to collect information about light-curing units. The results were analysed using the multi-response logistic regression to determine the factors affecting the radiation values of light-curing units. The results of the study showed that five major variables have a major effect by radiation.  This is shown with a value of P ≤ 0.05. Typical treatment times with radiant light, with a typical number of daily restorations, may exceed the risk limits for

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 19 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Suggested Model to Audit the Health Institutions to Achieve Sustainable Development: Suggested Model to Audit the Health Institutions to Achieve Sustainable Development
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Sustainable development is longer that meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs as it seeks to harmonize economic, social, Why research aims to check the availability of a proposed program takes into account the evidence and scrutiny of financial commitment and performance audit in accordance with the dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental, social and institutional) to measure the extent of the province on the needs of current and future generations, The problem with research that there is no audit program ensures the audit of financial statements, commitment and performance of health services in order to achieve sustainable development

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