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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Case Studies In Chemical And Environmental Engineering
Treatment of petroleum refinery wastewater by an innovative electro-Fenton system: Performance and specific energy consumption evaluation
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Publication Date
Fri Oct 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflecting the mental abilities of decision-makers in defining the strategic orientation
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        The purpose of this research is to highlight the nature of the relationship between the mental abilities of decision makers and strategic orientation . The intellectual capacity of decision-makers is the cornerstone for the implementation of all the tasks and duties of the Organization and constitutes the most important of its capabilities. As a result of the sharp changes in the environment in which it operates, this organization must accurately define its strategic directions to ensure its

survival and continuity. The problem of field research was to answer a fundamental question: Is the Iraqi director aware of how to employ mental abilities in strategic direc

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of the electric field on drilling Brass by Laser
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The research include a pulsed Nd: YAG Laser with (300µs) pulse duration in the TEM00 mode at (1.06µm) wavelength for energies between (0.5-3) J was employed to drill Brass material which is use in industrial applications. The process of drill was assisted by an electric field. This resulted in an increase in the hole aspect ratio by the value (45%) and decrease in the hole taper by the value (25%) of its value under ordinary drilling conditions using the same input energy.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Design and constructions laser - induced breakdown spectroscopy system to determine the fertility of north Iraqi soil
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Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) has been documented as an Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (AES) technique, utilising laser-induced plasma, in order to analyse elements in materials (gases, liquids and solid). The Nd:YAG laser passively Q-switched at 1064nm and 9ns pulse duration focused by convex lens with focal length 100 mm to generates power density 5.5×1012 Mw/mm2 with optical spectrum in the range 320-740 nm. Four soil samples were brought from different northern region of Iraq, northern region (Beiji, Sherkat, Serjnar and Zerkary).
The soil of the Northern region of Beige, Sherkat, Serjnar and Zarkary has abundant ratios of the elements P [0.08, 0.09, 0.18, 0.18] and Ca [0.61, 0.15, 0.92, 0.92] while it lack of Si [0.0

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Federal and problematic relationship between the center and the region in Iraq
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The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 unleashed the repressed national aspirations of the Kurdish people. After the colonial powers, especially Britain, failed to establish a homeland of scattered Kurds in Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran, Iraq's Kurds managed to establish a semi-independent state in the north of the country Which lasted decades against the central authority in Baghdad in protest against what they call the forced integration of Kurds in the Iraqi state, and to obtain more rights and privileges as partners in this country. The federal region in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has become a reality, and it is eager not to strengthen its authority in return for the authority of the central government, but to annex other areas inhabited b

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Wellbore Instability Analysis to Determine the Safe Mud Weight Window for Deep Well, Halfaya Oilfield
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Wellbore instability is one of the most common issues encountered during drilling operations. This problem becomes enormous when drilling deep wells that are passing through many different formations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate wellbore failure criteria by constructing a one-dimensional mechanical earth model (1D-MEM) that will help to predict a safe mud-weight window for deep wells. An integrated log measurement has been used to compute MEM components for nine formations along the studied well. Repeated formation pressure and laboratory core testing are used to validate the calculated results. The prediction of mud weight along the nine studied formations shows that for Ahmadi, Nahr Umr, Shuaiba, and Zubair formations

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
GEOLOGICAL MODEL OF HARTHA FORMATION IN MAJNOON OILFIELD, SOUTHERN IRAQ
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Analytical Modeling of Stresses in the Wall 0f the Human Heart
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The mechanical function of the heart is governed by the contractile properties of the cells, the mechanical stiffness of the muscle and connective tissue, and pressure and volume loading conditions on the organ. Although ventricular pressures and volumes are available for assessing the global pumping performance of the heart, the distribution of stress and strain that characterize regional ventricular function and change in cell biology must be known. The mechanics of the equatorial region of the left, ventricle was modeled by a thick-walled cylinder. The tangential (circumferential) stress, radial stress and longitudinal stress in the wall of the heart have been calculated. There are also significant torsional shear in the wall during b

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 05 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Arab Statistical Union (jasu)
Using Quality Control and 6-Sigma to Determine The Quality of The Treated Wastewater Discharged From Some Water Purification Plants
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
GENOTYPE VERSUS PHENOTYPE TO DETERMINE THE DEFINITIVE IDENTIFICATION OF THE GENERA CHLORELLA BEIJERINCK, 1890 (CHLORELLACEAE) AND COELASTRELLA CHODAT, 1922 (SCENDESMACEAE)
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    Conventional identification of three coccoid green algae isolates was attempted to characterize the studied algae morphologically under compound microscope, which demonstrated confusional phenomenal convergence; all were classified microscopically as the green alga Chlorella vulgaris Beijerinck, 1890.

 

    Phylogenetic studies were conducted to settle the argument about the phenotype by studying the genotype. Genotype the promising field in advance classification by using 18S rRNA and compared to GenBank database using to search the related sequences. The determined sequences showed high a similarity to the strains registered in GenBank.

 

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