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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Tax Laws and Decisions in Determining the Tax Base of the Results of the Financial Statements of Companies
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This research aims to measure the discrepancy between the accounting income which is prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles and the tax income that is being prepared according to the rules and tax laws, and find out the most important differences that arise between incomes.The research found the most important to the following conclusions:1.Faces determining the tax base for companies subject to income challenges related to the weakness of the efficiency and the possibility of technical angel tax and its ability to examine the financial statements submitted to the tax administration tax.2.That the tax system in Iraq does not comply with accepted accounting principles generally accepted.The research recommends the

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The usage of accounting information according to (Demerjian.et.al) model in order to measure the efficiency of industrial companies listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange
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The aim of the research is to measure the efficiency of the companies in the industrial sector listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange , by directing these companies to their resources (inputs) towards achieving the greatest possible returns (outputs) or reduce those resources while maintaining the level of returns to achieve the efficiency of these companies, therefore, in order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was used (Demerjian.et.al) model to measure the efficiency of companies and the factors influencing them. The researchers had got a number of conclusions , in which the most important of them is that 66.6% of the companies in the research sample do not possess relatively high efficiency and that the combined factors (the nat

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Absorptive Capacity of Operational Budget and Monetary Policy Fiscal Cost
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In light of the enquiry raised by the Economist Mary Finn in 1995 concluding that high utilization in absorptive capacity of the economy is of inflationary tendency for industrial countries due to the equality between high rates of utilization of absorptive capacity and resource – shortage conditions leading to price inflation, the same idea was used to prove that budget utilization of operational costs and elevating absorptive capacity at the expense of investment budget leads to inflationary tendency that becomes a burden on financing the step- in policy of the Central bank to control prices through its foreign currency reserves at a time when the economy turned  into an importer of non- tradable goods and being subject

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Statistical Fluctuations of Energy Spectrum, Electromagnetic Transitions and Electromagnetic Moments in 136Xe Nucleus Using the Framework of Nuclear Shell Model
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The fluctuation properties of energy spectrum, electromagnetic transition intensities and electromagnetic moments in nucleus are investigated with realistic shell model calculations. We find that the spectral fluctuations of are consistent with the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. Besides, we observe a transition from an order to chaos when the excitation energy is increased and a clear quantum signature of the breaking of chaoticity when the single-particle energies are increased. The distributions of the transition intensities and of the electromagnetic moments are well described by a Porter-Thomas distribution. The statistics of electromagnetic transition intensities clearly deviate from a Porter-Thomas distribution (i

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 28 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Mathematical Drilling Model on Southern Iraqi Oil Fields
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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Use of Scalp Hair as a Biomarker to Determine Airborne Heavy Metal Concentrations for the Academic Laboratory Employees
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Academic chemical laboratories (ACL) are considered public places  the employees come in contact with a variety of pollutants. The aim of the current study was to detect heavy metals levels in the indoor air of ACL in two universities in Baghdad city and assess their levels in the academic employees’ scalp hair as biomarkers. Air samples inside ACL were collected to detect Fe, Cd, Zn, Pb and Cu. Scalp hair samples were collected from 40 adult chemical laboratory employees aged 30-60 years, who worked 5 days/week for 6 hours a day. Personal information relating to employees such as age, duration of exposure, smoking habit and sex, was collected as a questionnaire. The results of this study concluded that academic laboratory employ

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Finding the best estimation of generalized for failure rates by using Simulation
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The statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions  of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions .  The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result  this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods  like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).        

The research

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 29 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Simulation Technique to Estimate the Parameters of Generalized Exponential Rayleigh Model
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     The paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM),  and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Identify indicators of climate change through the analysis of the amount of rain in Iraq
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United nation determined many basic climatic effects which affect the crust of Earth.
And the most important one is the climatic change and its effect on environmental, economic,
social, and political effects. So, the amount of rain which is considered as one of climatic
changes in Iraq should be studied.So, this research explains the factors which affect rain, its
overall average, the variation in the amounts of rain, the amount of yearly rain and variation
in both yearly and monthly rains by using standard variation and yearly fluctuation.As a
result, it is concluded that the number of rainy days doesn't mean an increase in rains amount.
And there's variation in rains amount in all study areas which is contrastive

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Publication Date
Sat May 05 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
planning and design of a tourist village in the marshes of southern Iraq
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This study analyzes how to make use of the resources in the marshlands of Iraq and how to utilize them, especially after the water returns to these areas and they are revitalized. We take an example of AL- Saheen Marsh and plan an ideal tourist resort there. This example can further expand to include other parts of the marshlands. The resort will utilize the local environment and tourist characteristics as it will have a feel and architectural resemblance to the houses and buildings that are currently built there. In addition the transportation methods will be the same as those used by the locals. Yet the resort will still posses all the facilities required by a modern tourist resort that includes all the services that will make

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