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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Construction And Building Materials
Linear viscous approach to predict rut depth in asphalt mixtures
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Rutting in asphalt mixtures is a very common type of distress. It occurs due to the heavy load applied and slow movement of traffic. Rutting needs to be predicted to avoid major deformation to the pavement. A simple linear viscous method is used in this paper to predict the rutting in asphalt mixtures by using a multi-layer linear computer programme (BISAR). The material properties were derived from the Repeated Load Axial Test (RLAT) and represented by a strain-dependent axial viscosity. The axial viscosity was used in an incremental multi-layer linear viscous analysis to calculate the deformation rate during each increment, and therefore the overall development of rutting. The method has been applied for six mixtures and at different tem

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Use of Scalp Hair as a Biomarker to Determine Airborne Heavy Metal Concentrations for the Academic Laboratory Employees
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Academic chemical laboratories (ACL) are considered public places  the employees come in contact with a variety of pollutants. The aim of the current study was to detect heavy metals levels in the indoor air of ACL in two universities in Baghdad city and assess their levels in the academic employees’ scalp hair as biomarkers. Air samples inside ACL were collected to detect Fe, Cd, Zn, Pb and Cu. Scalp hair samples were collected from 40 adult chemical laboratory employees aged 30-60 years, who worked 5 days/week for 6 hours a day. Personal information relating to employees such as age, duration of exposure, smoking habit and sex, was collected as a questionnaire. The results of this study concluded that academic laboratory employ

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Principal components and Partial least squares methods to estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model in the case of linear multiplication problem
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Abstract

  The logistic regression model is one of the nonlinear models that aims at obtaining highly efficient capabilities, It also the researcher an idea of the effect of the explanatory variable on the binary response variable.                                                                                  &nb

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of determining the economic quantity of the demand in reducing the total costs of inventory A case study in the Institute of Technical Management / Baghdad
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ABSTRACT

The research aims to identify the role of scientific planning of inventory by determining the quantity of economic demand and the number of times of purchase and associated annual total costs to achieve a sufficient and appropriate level of inventory . The research was based on the case study methodology. Materials of increasing demand in the Institute of Technical Management and knowledge of the degree of conformity of the procurement plan with the standard indicators adopted in a scientific method ,its include economic order quantity and number of purchasing times .
one of The main results  of the research was  the existence of a large difference between the quantity of the economic purchase of ea

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science (ijeecs)
A new smart approach of an efficient energy consumption management by using a machine-learning technique
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Many consumers of electric power have excesses in their electric power consumptions that exceed the permissible limit by the electrical power distribution stations, and then we proposed a validation approach that works intelligently by applying machine learning (ML) technology to teach electrical consumers how to properly consume without wasting energy expended. The validation approach is one of a large combination of intelligent processes related to energy consumption which is called the efficient energy consumption management (EECM) approaches, and it connected with the internet of things (IoT) technology to be linked to Google Firebase Cloud where a utility center used to check whether the consumption of the efficient energy is s

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An improved neurogenetic model for recognition of 3D kinetic data of human extracted from the Vicon Robot system
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These days, it is crucial to discern between different types of human behavior, and artificial intelligence techniques play a big part in that.  The characteristics of the feedforward artificial neural network (FANN) algorithm and the genetic algorithm have been combined to create an important working mechanism that aids in this field. The proposed system can be used for essential tasks in life, such as analysis, automation, control, recognition, and other tasks. Crossover and mutation are the two primary mechanisms used by the genetic algorithm in the proposed system to replace the back propagation process in ANN. While the feedforward artificial neural network technique is focused on input processing, this should be based on the proce

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Energy Production And Management
Reducing Energy Consumption in Iraqi Campuses with Passive Building Strategies: A Case Study at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering
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University campuses in Iraq are substantial energy consumers, with consumption increasing significantly during periods of high temperatures, underscoring the necessity to enhance their energy performance. Energy simulation tools offer valuable insights into evaluating and improving the energy efficiency of buildings. This study focuses on simulating passive architectural design for three selected buildings at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering (AKCOE) to examine the effectiveness of their cooling systems. DesignBuilder software was employed, and climatic data for a year in Baghdad was collected to assess the influence of passive architectural strategies on the thermal performance of the targeted buildings. The simulations revealed that the

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a model to reduce the cost of hajj in the Iraqi Authority for Hajj and Umrah
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The research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models

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Publication Date
Fri May 24 2013
Journal Name
American Journal Of Pharmacological Sciences
The Effect of Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients is Reduced by Tea Consumption
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 26 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of Nano-Accounting in the Rationalization of Accounting Performance: بحث تطبيقي في الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية
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The research Reviews the sides of highlight importance of the Nano-Accounting which doing the accounting performance functions fully computerized without the intervention of an accountant, to solve the problem of not keeping up the  rationalization of recording and accounting systems, with the rationalization of production which fully computerized.(be invisible and hidden accounting), resulting by linking or interaction of the accounting, additive production system represented three-dimensional printers, open source and recycling. That which result the rationalizing the facilities of production, organization and self-control which derived nanotechnology idea, which aims to minimize materials and change it properties, then view the a

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