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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Case control study to determine Macrophage migration inhibitor, and N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen Levels in the sera of osteoporosis patients
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This study focused on determining the markers of Macrophage migration inhibitor (MIF), as well as the N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen (NTX), and some other parameters (alkaline phosphatase (ALP), vitamin D (Vit D), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and magnesium (Mg), and their correlation with other parameters in osteoporosis. One hundred ten subjects were involved in the current study. There were two groups of patients: group I (30) women with severe osteoporosis and group II (30) women with mild osteoporosis. For comparison, 50 apparently healthy individuals were included as a control. Serum levels of MIF, and NTX were significantly higher in groups I and II as compared to the control group, which indicate that these two parameters

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Crossref (7)
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Japanese territorial dispute about the Soviet northern provinces )South Kuril Islands until the end of the Cold War( Historical Study
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The imposition of (state) policy on the South Kuril Islands.In the Pacific was a subject
of borders dispute between Japan and Soviet Union which appeared clearly afterthe second
Great War and during the cold war. Despite the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991, this conflict has continued, thus both countries had to made a historic
and legitimate claims to demand the rights of sovereignty and ownership of four islands
occupied by the Soviet Union after World War II under the international conventions and
treaties, but these claims are proven failures through the continuation of the regional conflict.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 08 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-rafidain University College For Sciences ( Print Issn: 1681-6870 ,online Issn: 2790-2293 )
Utilizing the Error Correction Model to Investigate the Impact of Fluctuations in Bank Deposits on the Money Supply
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This paper assesses the impact of changes and fluctuations in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq. Employing  the research constructs an Error Correction Model (ECM) using  monthly time series data from 2010 to 2015. The analysis begins with  the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the stationarity of the  time series and the Engle and Granger cointegration test to examine  the existence of a long-term relationship. Nonparametric regression functions are estimated using two methods: Smoothing Spline and M-smoothing. The results indicate that the  M-smoothing approach is the most effective, achieving the shortest adjustment period and the highest adjustment ratio for short-term disturbances, thereby facilitating a return

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Composition of fish assemblage in the East Hammar marsh, southern Iraq
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The fish assemblage in the East Hammar marsh was studied during December 2009 to May 2010. The fish fauna of the marsh consisted of 17 native, 23 marine (49%) and seven alien species. The dominant species were Liza abu (14.6%), Carassius auratus (13.4%) and Thryssa mystax (11.2%). The resident species formed 44.7%, occasional species 36.1% and seasonal species 19.2% of the total number of fish species. Fish species diversity index ranged from 1.28 to 2.61, richness from 1.98 to 4.50 and evenness from 0.45 to 0.78. Salinity ranged from 1.45 to 7.74‰. The increase in the proportion of marine species (49%) in the fish assemblage due to marine waters progress from Arabian Gulf had an impact on the values of ecological indices and the

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 03 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Corrosion risk assessment of the oil flow line in Southern Iraq
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The risk assessment for three pipelines belonging to the Basra Oil Company (X1, X2, X3), to develop an appropriate risk mitigation plan for each pipeline to address all high risks. Corrosion risks were assessed using a 5 * 5 matrix. Now, the risk assessment for X1 showed that the POF for internal corrosion is 5, which means that its risk is high due to salinity and the presence of CO, H2S and POF for external corrosion is 1 less than the corrosion, while for Flowline X2 the probability of internal corrosion is 4 and external is 4 because there is no Cathodic protection applied due to CO2, H2S and Flowline X3 have 8 leaks due to internal corrosion so the hazard rating was very high 5 and could be due to salinity, CO2, fluid flow rate

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study for evidence of bacteria contamination in the southern part of the Diyala River / Iraq
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Were studied some bacteria evidence of pollution as well as the total number of live bacteria in the waters of the Diyala river and selected five stations within the 17 km final Diyala River before its mouth in the Tigris River was the first before the new bridge of the Diyala River about 4 km and the second after the mouth of the water purification plant Rustumiya suit inverselywith temperatures

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Post-interactive communication A study to build a model for the flow of communication in social networking sites
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The issue of the research lies in the non-representation of the models developed for the communication process in the interaction and networking processes through social media, as the research sought to build a network model of communication according to the specific data and features of social media platforms in order to reach a special generalization to understand how the process of networking operates in cyberspace.

The researcher followed the analytical survey approach as she described the communication models outwardly in order to be able to build a networked communication model that represents the flow of post-reactive communication. Therefore, it has been named "Nebula - Sadeem" after the concept of post-space and cosmic g

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Crossref (2)
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Impact of the career path requirements in determining the type of training program
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The research deals with the important and modern two subject (career path and the type of training program), and tries to find identify the extent of the impact of the requirements of a career path in determining the type of training program in the Ministry of Oil.

In order to achieve the aim of the research was the formulation of the following hypothesis: the impact of the requirements of the career path a meaningful moral influence in determining the type of training program.

The survey was adopted in the search, and sample consisted of (75) people were a factor in the Oil Ministry of People's managers and officials and staff, and used the questionnaire as an es

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi-level model of the factors that affect the escalation of dust in Iraq
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In this research The study of Multi-level  model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level  models and one of  the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly  among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multiphase Flow
Application of artificial neural network to predict slug liquid holdup
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