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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 29 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Simulation Technique to Estimate the Parameters of Generalized Exponential Rayleigh Model
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     The paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM),  and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Machine Learning Based Crop Yield Prediction Model in Rajasthan Region of India
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     The present study investigates the implementation of machine learning models on crop data to predict crop yield in Rajasthan state, India. The key objective of the study is to identify which machine learning model performs are better to provide the most accurate predictions. For this purpose, two machine learning models (decision tree and random forest regression) were implemented, and gradient boosting regression was used as an optimization algorithm. The result clarifies that using gradient boosting regression can reduce the yield prediction mean square error to 6%. Additionally, for the present data set, random forest regression performed better than other models. We reported the machine learning model's performance using Mea

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Development of New Models to Determine the Rheological Parameters of Water-Based Drilling Fluid using Artificial Neural Networks
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It is well known that drilling fluid is a key parameter for optimizing drilling operations, cleaning the hole, and managing the rig hydraulics and margins of surge and swab pressures. Although the experimental works represent valid and reliable results, they are expensive and time consuming. In contrast, continuous and regular determination of the rheological fluid properties can perform its essential functions during good construction. The aim of this study is to develop empirical models to estimate the drilling mud rheological properties of water-based fluids with less need for lab measurements. This study provides two predictive techniques, multiple regression analysis and artificial neural networks, to determine the rheological

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Tax Laws and Decisions in Determining the Tax Base of the Results of the Financial Statements of Companies
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This research aims to measure the discrepancy between the accounting income which is prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles and the tax income that is being prepared according to the rules and tax laws, and find out the most important differences that arise between incomes.The research found the most important to the following conclusions:1.Faces determining the tax base for companies subject to income challenges related to the weakness of the efficiency and the possibility of technical angel tax and its ability to examine the financial statements submitted to the tax administration tax.2.That the tax system in Iraq does not comply with accepted accounting principles generally accepted.The research recommends the

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 11 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
On the Degree of Best Approximation of Unbounded Functions by Algebraic Polynomial
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  In this paper we introduce a new class of degree of best algebraic approximation polynomial Α,, for unbounded functions in weighted space Lp,α(X), 1 ∞ .We shall prove direct and converse theorems for best algebraic approximation in terms modulus of smoothness in weighted space

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Conference Of Computational Methods In Sciences And Engineering Iccmse 2021
Penetration of charged particles in ZnO using energy loss function model
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In this paper, we propose an approach to estimate the induced potential, which is generated by swift heavy ions traversing a ZnO thin film, via an energy loss function (ELF). This induced potential is related to the projectile charge density, ρq(k) and is described by the extended Drude dielectric function. At zero momentum transfer, the resulting ELF exhibits good agreement with the previously reported results. The ELF, obtained by the extended Drude model, displays a realistic behavior over the Bethe ridge. It is observed that the induced potential relies on the heavy ion velocity and charge state q. Further, the numerical results show that the induced potential for neutral H, as projectile, dominates when the heavy ion velocity is less

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multiphase Flow
Application of artificial neural network to predict slug liquid holdup
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 05 2023
Journal Name
Migration Letters
The Impact of Climate Change on the Increase in the Frequency of Drought in the Eastern Region of Iraq
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Aim: This abstract aims to highlight the critical nature of climate change as a pressing challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. It underscores the severe consequences it poses to essential facets of human existence, including water and energy resources, agricultural production, and the broader environmental systems. Method: The abstract primarily utilizes a descriptive approach to emphasize the impact of climate change on the Middle East, particularly the Arab region. It relies on a review of existing knowledge and data related to climate change and its effects on ecosystems and drought patterns. Results: The abstract outlines the direct and indirect repercussions of climate change on human life and the environment. It draws atten

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using ultrasonic technique to determine some petrophysical properties of core samples of Zubair and Mishrif Formations at Lu-5 and Tu-5 oil wells, southern Iraq
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Seventeen core samples were taken from Luhais and Tuba oil wells according to the presence of oil bearing formations. These wells were located in the province of Basra/southern Iraq. The formation that the samples are collected from Zubair and Mishrif formations. The core samples were taken from the wells at different depths. In the current study the ultrasonic technique was conducted to measure (Vp and Vs) as well as to determine some petrophysical properties for core samples and some elastic moduli such as (Young's modulus, Bulk modulus, Shear modulus, Poisson's ratio and Lame's constant) depending on the values of Vp and Vs as well as density. The relationships between seismic wave velocities with elastic moduli and petrophysical prop

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 26 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of Nano-Accounting in the Rationalization of Accounting Performance: بحث تطبيقي في الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية
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The research Reviews the sides of highlight importance of the Nano-Accounting which doing the accounting performance functions fully computerized without the intervention of an accountant, to solve the problem of not keeping up the  rationalization of recording and accounting systems, with the rationalization of production which fully computerized.(be invisible and hidden accounting), resulting by linking or interaction of the accounting, additive production system represented three-dimensional printers, open source and recycling. That which result the rationalizing the facilities of production, organization and self-control which derived nanotechnology idea, which aims to minimize materials and change it properties, then view the a

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