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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 29 2025
Journal Name
Nasaq
The Effectiveness of The Proposed Teaching strategy According to The Common Knowledge Construction Model in The Achievement of Students of The Second intermediate grade in Mathematics
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
The Effect of Tidal Energies on the Materials Properties of the Soil at Southern Mesopotamia
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The materials of soil were affected by multi reasons; such as human activities, floods, tidal waves, ... etc. The change of the soil contents could be measured through different indexes; such as electric conductivities, salinity, concentration of the heavy elements, and concentration of essential elements ... etc. The land cover is affected by natural influences, like tidal energy, which plays a negative role in the salinization of land adjacent to the coasts, causing a problem for soils in all its details represented in changing of the dissolved elements in soil. One of the most important natural factors that cause soil salinity is human activity in all its forms, and one of the most important causes of salinity is the phenomenon o

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applied probability model of inventory multi- period in stores of cement factory in Samawah
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In this paper will be applied to a probability model of inventories periods of multiple stores of raw materials used in the cement industry, cement factory in Samawah and basic materials are limestone, soil normal, iron soil, fuel oil and gypsum. It was built of this model after the test and determine the distribution of demand during the supply period (waiting period) for each subject and independently of the rest of the material as it is not affected by any of the materials above interrelated in the process of supply, this test has been using the Statistical Package of (SPSS) and then was determining the amount of request optimum seeking in each batch and each substance known volume of economic optimization of

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Domestic Violence and Extremism among the Young: A Field Study in the Madain Region
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Young people represent the power and cornerstone of societies and their superiority is linked to their well-being. Their empowerment is as essential as the heart to the body, if it is corrupt, then the whole body is corrupt, and vice versa. The exposure to extremism and pressure from their families leads to violent acts and crimes for obtaining money through unknown organized bodies. This will drive them to fail in their life in an attempt to fulfill their most basic needs, which they have been deprived of by their families, the government, and other institutions. Therefore, governments should provide job opportunities for young people and provide entertainment centers, sports clubs, and family education centers that raise awareness of s

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
Management of Retained Foreign Bodies in Missile Injuries of the Maxillofacial Region
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This study evaluates 22 patients with retained foreign bodies in the maxillofacial region that were all caused by penetrating missile injuries. Surgical intervention for the retrieval of the foreign bodies was carried out in 20 patients through the existing wounds and through separate incisions; all patients were followed up for a minimum of 2 months during which all the complications were registered and managed. Preoperative imaging is a prerequisite for the accurate localization of the foreign body and the subsequent successful removal of it. All patients developed complications that were categorized in this study into those that result from the injury itself and those that occur because of the retrieval procedure, the latter category bei

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Development of an ANN Model for RGB Color Classification using the Dataset Extracted from a Fabricated Colorimeter
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Codes of red, green, and blue data (RGB) extracted from a lab-fabricated colorimeter device were used to build a proposed classifier with the objective of classifying colors of objects based on defined categories of fundamental colors. Primary, secondary, and tertiary colors namely red, green, orange, yellow, pink, purple, blue, brown, grey, white, and black, were employed in machine learning (ML) by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm using Python. The classifier, which was based on the ANN algorithm, required a definition of the mentioned eleven colors in the form of RGB codes in order to acquire the capability of classification. The software's capacity to forecast the color of the code that belongs to an ob

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Statistical Study of the Amount of Radiation Generated from Communication Towers in the Nineveh Plain Region, Baghdeda
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This research presents a statistical study of radiation generated from communication towers in the Nineveh Plain region Baghdeda. The intensity of radiation energy was measured at 10 meters away from the communication tower in different locations, using a (1PC XH-901 Dosimeter/ Personal Dose Alarm / Radiation Detector, dosage rate: 0.01 μSv/h to 150μSv/h) to measure the amount of radiation at various times. Energy densities were measured and compared with standard limits provided by other authorities, such as the International Committee for Radiation Protection. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 26 to implement the data. The results show that the means of the radiation levels measured at all the zones do not statistically differ

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Robust methods for Estimates the power Spectrum in ARMA Models Simulation Study
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Abstract:

Robust statistics Known as, resistance to errors caused by deviation from the stability hypotheses of the statistical operations (Reasonable, Approximately Met, Asymptotically Unbiased, Reasonably Small Bias, Efficient ) in the data selected in a wide range of probability distributions whether they follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions deviations different standard .

power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, form stable random variables organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. It can be described by measuring its total capacity as function in frequency.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Obstacles to the application of electronic management in university libraries: the universities of Baghdad and Al-Mustansiriya as a model.
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The research aims to identify the obstacles facing the application of electronic management in our university libraries, including the central library of the University of Baghdad and the central library of Al-Mustansiriya University, the research sample, as they are among the main libraries that used electronic technologies in managing some of their work and in providing their services, and they have a website via the Internet. The research relied on the case study method to identify the obstacles by visiting the two libraries, interviewing their managers and employees responsible for the departments, and answering inquiries about the obstacles that prevent the application of electronic management in order to identify them and find appropr

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