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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Advanced GIS-based Multi-Function Support System for Identifying the Best Route
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Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are obtaining a significant role in handling strategic applications in which data are organized as records of multiple layers in a database. Furthermore, GIS provide multi-functions like data collection, analysis, and presentation. Geographic information systems have assured their competence in diverse fields of study via handling various problems for numerous applications. However, handling a large volume of data in the GIS remains an important issue. The biggest obstacle is designing a spatial decision-making framework focused on GIS that manages a broad range of specific data to achieve the right performance. It is very useful to support decision-makers by providing GIS-based decision support syste

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Testing the Assumption of Linearity for Sales of State Company for Electrical Industries
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In this study, the four tests employed for non-linear dependence which is Engle (1982), McLeod &Li (1983), Tsay (1986), and Hinich & Patterson (1995). To test the null hypothesis that the time series is a serially independent and identical distribution process .The linear structure is removed from the data which is represent the sales of State Company for Electrical Industries, through a pre-whitening model, AR (p) model .From The results for tests to the data is not so clear.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluating the quality of educational services according to the modified Servqual modelStudy of a sample of students of the Faculty of Management and Economics / University of Baghdad
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The research aims to apply a modified SERVQUAL model to evaluate the quality of the educational services via conducting exploratory research for students from the College of Administration and Economics- Department of Business Administration- Evening studies at the University of Baghdad. Questionnaire of two parts was distributed to a sample of (72) students out of (720) students of the 2nd.,3rd. and 4th. year in the beginning of the second semester of the year 2008-2009 to measure the expectations and perceptions to the quality of the educational services. Five major dimensions were analyzed to see the gaps for (22) variables. The study concluded that there were (13) variables confirmed that the

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 15 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Comparative Investigation of Different Ionospheric Models to Predict the MUF Parameter During Severe Geomagnetic Storm on 17th March 2015.
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The present work aimed to make a comparative investigation between three different ionospheric models: IRI-2020, ASAPS and VOACAP. The purpose of the comparative study is to investigate the compatibility of predicting the Maximum Usable Frequency parameter (MUF) over mid-latitude region during the severe geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2015. Three stations distributed in the mid-latitudes were selected for study; these are (Athens (23.50o E, 38.00o N), Jeju (124.53o E, 33.6o N) and Pt. Arguello (239.50o W, 34.80o N). The daily MUF outcomes were calculated using the tested models for the three adopted sites, for a span of five-day (the day of the event and two days preceding and following the event day). The calculated datasets were co

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Deep Learning-based Predictive Model of mRNA Vaccine Deterioration: An Analysis of the Stanford COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Dataset
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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, has resulted in a global health crisis leading to widespread illness, death, and daily life disruptions. Having a vaccine for COVID-19 is crucial to controlling the spread of the virus which will help to end the pandemic and restore normalcy to society. Messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules vaccine has led the way as the swift vaccine candidate for COVID-19, but it faces key probable restrictions including spontaneous deterioration. To address mRNA degradation issues, Stanford University academics and the Eterna community sponsored a Kaggle competition.This study aims to build a deep learning (DL) model which will predict deterioration rates at each base of the mRNA

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Scopus (4)
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applied probability model of inventory multi- period in stores of cement factory in Samawah
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In this paper will be applied to a probability model of inventories periods of multiple stores of raw materials used in the cement industry, cement factory in Samawah and basic materials are limestone, soil normal, iron soil, fuel oil and gypsum. It was built of this model after the test and determine the distribution of demand during the supply period (waiting period) for each subject and independently of the rest of the material as it is not affected by any of the materials above interrelated in the process of supply, this test has been using the Statistical Package of (SPSS) and then was determining the amount of request optimum seeking in each batch and each substance known volume of economic optimization of

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The method of ABC and it, s roules in the Determining the cost of the Project constraction sector
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Abstract

The basic orientation of the research is an attempting to apply the cost determining method according in the contract sector projects for Al- Iraq ceneral company, that this subject has a big value according to its modernity and  its influence on the future  and the eaning of the company.

The research aims to find out the effect of the method for determining cost based on the activity in determining the cost of the construction sector projects.The research was conducted in Iraq General Company for the implementation of irrigation projects. Bani search on three assumptions, the first is (that the application of the method for determining the cost on the basis of

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Development of an ANN Model for RGB Color Classification using the Dataset Extracted from a Fabricated Colorimeter
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Codes of red, green, and blue data (RGB) extracted from a lab-fabricated colorimeter device were used to build a proposed classifier with the objective of classifying colors of objects based on defined categories of fundamental colors. Primary, secondary, and tertiary colors namely red, green, orange, yellow, pink, purple, blue, brown, grey, white, and black, were employed in machine learning (ML) by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm using Python. The classifier, which was based on the ANN algorithm, required a definition of the mentioned eleven colors in the form of RGB codes in order to acquire the capability of classification. The software's capacity to forecast the color of the code that belongs to an ob

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Salinity mapping model and brine chemistry of Mishrif reservoir in Basrah oilfields, Southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
THE FAUNISTIC SURVEY OF LADY BEETLES (COLEOPTERA, COCCINELLIDAE) IN THE MEHRIZ REGION(YAZD PROVINCE), IRAN
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  In this study the faunistic of lady beetles (Coleoptera, Coccinellidae) was studied in Mehriz region (Yazd province) during 2009-2010. The total number of specimens of coccinellid beetles were collected from 6 different localities having altitudes from 1420-2420 m. Altogether 11 species from 8 genera, 3 tribes and 3 subfamilies were collected and identified. External characters plus characteristics male and female genitalia were used in order to diagnose species. Seven species were recorded for the first time from Yazd province (marked*). Many species were predacious, preying on various species of aphids, mites and coccids. Some species were also sent to Dr. Helmut Fursch in Germany for identification or confirmation. T

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