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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 18 2020
Journal Name
Diagnostics
Diagnostic Accuracy of Oral Fluids Biomarker Profile to Determine the Current and Future Status of Periodontal and Peri-Implant Diseases
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Severe periodontitis is ranked as the sixth most prevalent disease affecting humankind, with an estimated 740 million people affected worldwide. The diagnosis of periodontal diseases mainly relies upon assessment of conventional clinical parameters. However, these parameters reflect past, rather than current, clinical status or future disease progression and, likely, outcome of periodontal treatment. Specific and sensitive biomarkers for periodontal diseases have been examined widely to address these issues and some biomarkers have been translated as point-of-care (PoC) tests. The aim of this review was to provide an update on PoC tests for use in the diagnosis and management of periodontal diseases. Among the PoC tests developed so

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
Nuclear Physics A
Determine the 134–140Nd isotopes identity using IBM and NEF
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TThe property of 134−140Neodymium nuclei have been studied in framework Interacting Boson Model (IBM) and a new method called New Empirical Formula (NEF). The energy positive parity bands of 134−140Nd have been calculated using (IBM) and (NEF) while the negative parity bands of 134−140Nd have been calculated using (NEF) only. The E-GOS curve as a function of the spin (I) has been drawn to determine the property of the positive parity yrast band. The parameters of the best fit to the measured data are determined. The reduced transition probabilities of these nuclei was calculated. The critical point has been determined for 140Nd isotope. The potential energy surfaces (PESs) to the IBM Hamiltonian have been obtained using the intrin

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 29 2025
Journal Name
Nasaq
The Effectiveness of The Proposed Teaching strategy According to The Common Knowledge Construction Model in The Achievement of Students of The Second intermediate grade in Mathematics
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Continuous Improvement Strategy (Kaizen) in organizational innovation: An analytical research in the General Company of Electrical and Electronic Industries /The Ministry of Industry and Minerals
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This paper aims at the fact that most organizations today suffer from a waste of time, effort, and cost, and they have difficulty in achieving the best performance situations and compete strongly. The researcher distributed 108 questionnaires as a statistical analyzable sample society where the sample intentionally consists of general managers, department head, and division head. The questionnaire was formulated according to the Likert scale. The use of personal interviews and observations are additional tools for data collection and a number of statistical methods is used for data analysis such as simple regression and correlation coefficient (Pearson). One of the most prominent conclusions is that the company has adequate and c

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Robust methods for Estimates the power Spectrum in ARMA Models Simulation Study
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Abstract:

Robust statistics Known as, resistance to errors caused by deviation from the stability hypotheses of the statistical operations (Reasonable, Approximately Met, Asymptotically Unbiased, Reasonably Small Bias, Efficient ) in the data selected in a wide range of probability distributions whether they follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions deviations different standard .

power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, form stable random variables organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. It can be described by measuring its total capacity as function in frequency.

<

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Domestic Violence and Extremism among the Young: A Field Study in the Madain Region
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Young people represent the power and cornerstone of societies and their superiority is linked to their well-being. Their empowerment is as essential as the heart to the body, if it is corrupt, then the whole body is corrupt, and vice versa. The exposure to extremism and pressure from their families leads to violent acts and crimes for obtaining money through unknown organized bodies. This will drive them to fail in their life in an attempt to fulfill their most basic needs, which they have been deprived of by their families, the government, and other institutions. Therefore, governments should provide job opportunities for young people and provide entertainment centers, sports clubs, and family education centers that raise awareness of s

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
Management of Retained Foreign Bodies in Missile Injuries of the Maxillofacial Region
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This study evaluates 22 patients with retained foreign bodies in the maxillofacial region that were all caused by penetrating missile injuries. Surgical intervention for the retrieval of the foreign bodies was carried out in 20 patients through the existing wounds and through separate incisions; all patients were followed up for a minimum of 2 months during which all the complications were registered and managed. Preoperative imaging is a prerequisite for the accurate localization of the foreign body and the subsequent successful removal of it. All patients developed complications that were categorized in this study into those that result from the injury itself and those that occur because of the retrieval procedure, the latter category bei

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Japanese territorial dispute about the Soviet northern provinces )South Kuril Islands until the end of the Cold War( Historical Study
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The imposition of (state) policy on the South Kuril Islands.In the Pacific was a subject
of borders dispute between Japan and Soviet Union which appeared clearly afterthe second
Great War and during the cold war. Despite the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991, this conflict has continued, thus both countries had to made a historic
and legitimate claims to demand the rights of sovereignty and ownership of four islands
occupied by the Soviet Union after World War II under the international conventions and
treaties, but these claims are proven failures through the continuation of the regional conflict.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Obstacles to the application of electronic management in university libraries: the universities of Baghdad and Al-Mustansiriya as a model.
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The research aims to identify the obstacles facing the application of electronic management in our university libraries, including the central library of the University of Baghdad and the central library of Al-Mustansiriya University, the research sample, as they are among the main libraries that used electronic technologies in managing some of their work and in providing their services, and they have a website via the Internet. The research relied on the case study method to identify the obstacles by visiting the two libraries, interviewing their managers and employees responsible for the departments, and answering inquiries about the obstacles that prevent the application of electronic management in order to identify them and find appropr

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