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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Statistical Study of the Amount of Radiation Generated from Communication Towers in the Nineveh Plain Region, Baghdeda
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This research presents a statistical study of radiation generated from communication towers in the Nineveh Plain region Baghdeda. The intensity of radiation energy was measured at 10 meters away from the communication tower in different locations, using a (1PC XH-901 Dosimeter/ Personal Dose Alarm / Radiation Detector, dosage rate: 0.01 μSv/h to 150μSv/h) to measure the amount of radiation at various times. Energy densities were measured and compared with standard limits provided by other authorities, such as the International Committee for Radiation Protection. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 26 to implement the data. The results show that the means of the radiation levels measured at all the zones do not statistically differ

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing the quality of health services applied research 5qs in Baghdad teaching hospital
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Abstract

       This research aims to assess and measure the quality of health services provided by the Baghdad Educational Hospital using  five dimensions of 5Qs , Developer model by (Zinelidin), 2006), the problem of the research is to try to determine the quality of health services provided at the hospital as well as the investigation of the existence of the elements of quality contribute to achieve the requirements of customers and their needs, and used for the purposes of this research two approaches, first used Applied Research to 5Qs dimension model and use the Checklist as a Key tool to collection and analysis of data and the second descriptive analytical me

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 13 2023
Journal Name
E3s Web Of Conferences
Assessment of Soil and Water Properties in the Central Marshes Southern Iraq
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The Central Marshes are one of southern Iraq's most important wetlands and ecosystems. A study on evaluating soil quality and water quality in terms of chemical properties at certain sites in the southern Iraqi Central Marshes has been conducted to investigate their types and suitability for enhancing the agricultural reality of most field crops. Soil and water samples were collected from 15 sites and transferred to the laboratory. In the lab, the following parameters were determined: electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved salts (TDS), organic materials (OM), pH, gypsum, and total sulfate content (SO3). The tests conducted on the samples indicated that it could be said that the soil of the Central Marshes

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Different Methods to Predict Oil in Place in Mishrif Formation / Amara Oil Field
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The reserve estimation process is continuous during the life of the field due to risk and inaccuracy that are considered an endemic problem thereby must be studied. Furthermore, the truth and properly defined hydrocarbon content can be identified just only at the field depletion. As a result, reserve estimation challenge is a function of time and available data. Reserve estimation can be divided into five types: analogy, volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance and reservoir simulation, each of them differs from another to the kind of data required. The choice of the suitable and appropriate method relies on reservoir maturity, heterogeneity in the reservoir and data acquisition required. In this research, three types of rese

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Health Belief Model and its Relation to Age and Body Mass Index Considering Colorectal Examinations among Graduate Students
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Abstract
Objectives: The study aims to: (1) Find out the relationship among participants’ age, body mass index (BMI), and Health Belief Model (HBM) related to colorectal examinations among graduate students. (2) Investigate the differences in Health Belief Model constructs between the groups of age, gender, marital status, and education level among graduate students.
Methodology: A descriptive correlational study design which conducted in the College of Fine Arts – University of Baghdad. A convenience sample of 80 graduate students were included in this study. The data were collected by using a self-reported questionnaire which consisted of two parts (I) socio-demographic characteristics (II) Colorectal Cancer Screening Beliefs

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
The Effect of Tidal Energies on the Materials Properties of the Soil at Southern Mesopotamia
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The materials of soil were affected by multi reasons; such as human activities, floods, tidal waves, ... etc. The change of the soil contents could be measured through different indexes; such as electric conductivities, salinity, concentration of the heavy elements, and concentration of essential elements ... etc. The land cover is affected by natural influences, like tidal energy, which plays a negative role in the salinization of land adjacent to the coasts, causing a problem for soils in all its details represented in changing of the dissolved elements in soil. One of the most important natural factors that cause soil salinity is human activity in all its forms, and one of the most important causes of salinity is the phenomenon o

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing the efficiency Economic performance of the diyala General company for electrical industries for the Period (2000-2010)
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     Facing industrial companies many pressures and challenges due to rapid changes in the business environment of contemporary, which requires them to do their performance look more inclusive rather than limiting performance evaluation on the financial perspective in spite of its importance, prompting companies to rethink their reality competitive through the adoption of methodologies and new philosophies to manage competitiveness of total quality management, and re-engineering of production processes, and knowledge management,... etc., as This study framework cognitive and practical "to evaluate the performance of a company Diyala General Electric Industries and how to rehabilitate

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
ON THE ECOLOGY AND SPECIES DIVERSITY OF THE FRESHWATER GASTROPODS OF SPRINGS IN ANDIJAN REGION, UZBEKISTAN
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This study examines the species composition, biodiversity, zoogeography, and ecology of freshwater gastropods of 12 springs in Andijan region of Uzbekistan. The study used generally accepted malacological, faunistic, ecological, analytical, and statistical methods. As a result of research in the springs, 14 species of freshwater gastropods belonging to 2 subclasses, 5 families, and 10 genera were recorded. 7 of them are endemic to Central Asia. When indicators of biodiversity of mollusks were analyzed according to the Shannon index, it was found that the highest value was recorded in the springs besides the hills. According to the biotope of distribution and bioecological features, they were divided into cryophilic, phytophilic, pelophil

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.
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The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.

Because the studying of time series can get by building, analysis the models and then forecasting gives the priority for the practicing in different fields, therefore the identification and selection of the model is of great importance in spite of its difficulties.

The selection of a standard methods has the ability for estimation the errors in the estimated the parameters for the model, and there will be a balance between the suitability and the simplicity of the model.

In the analysis of d

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic leadership skills on effective environmental management according to the (VUCA Prime) model
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Purpose: clarify the integrative relationship of strategic leadership skills and effective management and the role of those skills combined or individually in achieving effective management.

Research design: The researchers used the quantitative method by surveying a class sample from the heads of the executive departments in a group of Iraqi private banks, consisting of (106) individuals according to the (VUCA Prime) methodology for effective management and the ten skills model for Johansen. The questionnaire was analyzed using a model of the structural equation.

Findings: The most prominent results of the research were the presence of a weak ro

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