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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The water bodies in the Southern East of Iraq before and after 2018
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This study is concerned with the recent changes that occurred in the last three years (2017-2019) in the marshes region in southern Iraq as a result of the changes in the global climate, the study included all the water bodies in the five governorates that are located in the southern regions of Iraq (Wasit, Maysan, Dhi-Qar, Qadisiyah and Basrah), which represent the marshes lands in Iraq. Scenes of the Landsat 8 satellite are used to create a mosaic to cover the five governorates within a time window with the slightest difference between the date of the scene capture, not to exceed 8 days. The results of calculating the changes in water areas were obtained using the classifier support vector machine, where high accuracy ratios were recorded

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Case control study to determine Macrophage migration inhibitor, and N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen Levels in the sera of osteoporosis patients
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This study focused on determining the markers of Macrophage migration inhibitor (MIF), as well as the N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen (NTX), and some other parameters (alkaline phosphatase (ALP), vitamin D (Vit D), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and magnesium (Mg), and their correlation with other parameters in osteoporosis. One hundred ten subjects were involved in the current study. There were two groups of patients: group I (30) women with severe osteoporosis and group II (30) women with mild osteoporosis. For comparison, 50 apparently healthy individuals were included as a control. Serum levels of MIF, and NTX were significantly higher in groups I and II as compared to the control group, which indicate that these two parameters

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Health Belief Model and its Relation to Age and Body Mass Index Considering Colorectal Examinations among Graduate Students
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Abstract
Objectives: The study aims to: (1) Find out the relationship among participants’ age, body mass index (BMI), and Health Belief Model (HBM) related to colorectal examinations among graduate students. (2) Investigate the differences in Health Belief Model constructs between the groups of age, gender, marital status, and education level among graduate students.
Methodology: A descriptive correlational study design which conducted in the College of Fine Arts – University of Baghdad. A convenience sample of 80 graduate students were included in this study. The data were collected by using a self-reported questionnaire which consisted of two parts (I) socio-demographic characteristics (II) Colorectal Cancer Screening Beliefs

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Using Markov Switching Model to Investigate the Link between the Inflation and Uncertain Inflation in Iraq for the periods 1980-2010"
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In this paper we use the Markov Switching model to investigate the link between the level of Iraqi inflation and its uncertainty; forth period 1980-2010 we measure inflation uncertainty as the variance of unanticipated  inflation. The results ensure there are a negative effect of inflation level on inflation uncertainty and  all so there are a positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation level.                                                   &nbsp

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 13 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Use of CUSB Model to Simplify Business Plans the Case of the Promotion of A Heritage Site in Morocco
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In today‟s fierce competitive world, entrepreneurship has taken an upswing because business owners are facing a technological challenge in which uniqueness and particularity are key elements to detour rivals. In this essence, entrepreneurs have to go by not only developing business plans but also a deep analysis of their environment.
Business plans for entrepreneurs can take different models depending on the party that will evaluate its elements based on its requirements. However, there exists a basic format that most entrepreneurs follow. Because of time constraints, business owners are urging its usefulness and so are the investors. Business plans are all about nailing down the business idea into writing and analysis, while th

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Molecules mixture model to explain the nature of interstellar matter
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The nature of interstellar matter has been explained by presenting a model consists of organic and inorganic materials mixture in the wavelength range (9-12) μm.
Laboratory samples of different concentrations of these materials were prepared and examined by using FTIR spectrometer device. Results of spectra for these samples are compared with observation of Trapezium nebula in the same wavelengths range. The best mixture model found to fit with observation is a sample consists of:11.96 % (Diatom silica (98% pure silica)) + 14.35 % (Carbon (C)) +27.63 % (Tryptophan amino acid) + 46.06 % (Tyrosine amino acid), this are done using convolution technique. Interstellar matter could be explained biologically, as the contribution of organic

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Robust methods for Estimates the power Spectrum in ARMA Models Simulation Study
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Abstract:

Robust statistics Known as, resistance to errors caused by deviation from the stability hypotheses of the statistical operations (Reasonable, Approximately Met, Asymptotically Unbiased, Reasonably Small Bias, Efficient ) in the data selected in a wide range of probability distributions whether they follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions deviations different standard .

power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, form stable random variables organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. It can be described by measuring its total capacity as function in frequency.

<

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 23 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Model to Compute the Solar Parameters in Relation to Determining the Optimal Angles for Solar Panels in Many Locations in Iraq
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     Directing solar panels in a way that collects the largest possible amount of solar energy is still attracting a lot of attention due to the continuous need to get clean, inexpensive renewable energy. Iraq is one of the countries characterized by the abundance of solar energy but the investment in this field has been far below ambition. In this study, an application developed with the visual basic programing language was used to compute precisely various solar angles and parameters , as a powerful tool for engineers and researchers. The outputs of the model were tested and discussed in detail. The air mass values were also computed for three cities: Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. The results showed that the best time

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The method of ABC and it, s roules in the Determining the cost of the Project constraction sector
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Abstract

The basic orientation of the research is an attempting to apply the cost determining method according in the contract sector projects for Al- Iraq ceneral company, that this subject has a big value according to its modernity and  its influence on the future  and the eaning of the company.

The research aims to find out the effect of the method for determining cost based on the activity in determining the cost of the construction sector projects.The research was conducted in Iraq General Company for the implementation of irrigation projects. Bani search on three assumptions, the first is (that the application of the method for determining the cost on the basis of

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use A State Space Model and Forecast House Prices in Baghdad.
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The purchase of a home and access to housing is one of the most important requirements for the life of the individual and the stability of living and the development of the prices of houses in general and in Baghdad in particular affected by several factors, including the basic area of the house, the age of the house, the neighborhood in which the housing is available and the basic services, Where the statistical model SSM model was used to model house prices over a period of time from 2000 to 2018 and forecast until 2025 The research is concerned with enhancing the importance of this model and describing it as a standard and important compared to the models used in the analysis of time series after obtaining the

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