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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Biz method and classical methods in estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model
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Abstract

          Binary logistic regression model used in data classification and it is the strongest most flexible tool in study cases variable response binary when compared to linear regression. In this research, some classic methods were used to estimate parameters binary logistic regression model, included the maximum likelihood method, minimum chi-square method, weighted least squares, with bayes estimation , to choose the best method of estimation by default values to estimate parameters according two different models of general linear regression models ,and different s

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
Molecular Genetic variability in the D-loop region for females with Breast Cancer and the effect of the Chemotherapy
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Breadth in the meaning of the "from Surah Maryam as a model.
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Prepositions have a key function, which is to associate parts of a sentence, called letters In addition, it adds the meanings of the verbs to the names, ie reached by them, and called by the coffin characters Qualities..

          I chose to search for the meaning of the preposition "from" in Surat Maryam to know its meanings in terms of originality and expansion, so the title of the research (the meanings of preposition "from" in terms of originality and expansion in Surat Maryam model(

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Geoarabia
Sedimentological characterization of the mid-Cretaceous Mishrif reservoir in southern Mesopotamian Basin, Iraq
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ABSTRACT<p>The CenomanianÐEarly Turonian reservoirs of the Mishrif Formation of the Mesopotamian Basin hold more than one-third of the proven Iraqi oil reserves. Difficulty in predicting the presence of these mostly rudistic reservoir units is mainly due to the complex paleogeography of the Mishrif depositional basin, which has not been helped by numerous previous studies using differing facies schemes over local areas. Here we present a regional microfacies-based study that incorporates earlier data into a comprehensive facies model. This shows that extensive accumulation of rudist banks usually occurred along an exterior shelf margin of the basin along an axis that runs from Hamrin to Badra a</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Archaeological prospecting using the Electric Resistivity Imaging method at the Borsippa site, Near Babylon, Central Iraq
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Many important archaeological sites in Iraq still need to be preserved. Some of these sites were subjected to destruction and negligence. So, exploring these sites represents a priority for its protection. A 2D Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) as a non-invasive geophysical survey method was implemented at a part of the Borsippa archaeological site near Babylon to search for the subsurface archaeological artefacts/structures. Electrical resistivity measurements were carried out using a Dipole-Dipole array. Steps were taken to process and filter using Horizontal profiles, forward modelling, and 2D inverse models to analyze the resistivity measurements. The ERI inversion results show that the superficial conductive zone produced va

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Using the Water Quality Index as a Powerful Tool to Assess the Water Quality for Drinking Purposes in Al-Salam, Western Region of Baghdad City, Iraq
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Background: Tap waters play an important role in fulfilling the people needs for drinking and domestic purposes. Contaminate the tap water with different pollutants has become an issue of great concern for 90% of people who are depended on the tap water as the main source of drinking. Pollutants can make their way easily into the delivering pipes which suffer from the leaking resulting in decreasing the quality of water. Objective: Therefore, assess the water quality for drinking purpose by calculating the water quality index is an important tool to ascertain whether the water is suitable for human consumption or not. Methods: In the present work, the water quality of the Al-Salam, western region of Baghdad city, Iraq was investigated for 7

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Testing the Assumption of Linearity for Sales of State Company for Electrical Industries
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In this study, the four tests employed for non-linear dependence which is Engle (1982), McLeod &Li (1983), Tsay (1986), and Hinich & Patterson (1995). To test the null hypothesis that the time series is a serially independent and identical distribution process .The linear structure is removed from the data which is represent the sales of State Company for Electrical Industries, through a pre-whitening model, AR (p) model .From The results for tests to the data is not so clear.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biodiversity of Rotifera and Cladocera in the upper region of Euphrates River- Iraq
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Five representative sampling stations were selected in upper region of Euphrates river. Bimonthly sampling were collected from December 2000 to December 2001. Rotifera showed high density in December 2000 while high density of cladocera which recorded in October .The results of relative abundance index showed that rotifera: Polyarthera dolichoptera , Keratella cochlearis , K. valga, Cephalodella auriculata and cladocera: Bosmina longirostris , B.coregoni ,Chydorus spharicus, were more abundant in study stations. The results of constancy index showed 4 taxa belonged to rotifera and 2 taxa belonged to cladocera which were considered constant in the Euphrates river, where the other species varied between accessory and accidental speci

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Dual use of Altman financial failure prediction analysis and stress tests to achieve integration in banking risk management : Analytical study of the National Bank of Iraq
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The research aims to demonstrate the dual use of analysis to predict financial failure according to the Altman model and stress tests to achieve integration in banking risk management. On the bank’s ability to withstand crises, especially in light of its low rating according to the Altman model, and the possibility of its failure in the future, thus proving or denying the research hypothesis, the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which (the bank, according to the Altman model, is threatened with failure in the near future, as it is located within the red zone according to the model’s description, and will incur losses if it is exposed to crises in the future according to the analysis of stress tests

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study The Influence of Doping Electric and Magnetic Nanoparticles on The Nonlinear Optical Properties of Nematic Liquid Crystals
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The nonlinear optical properties response of nematic liquid crystal (6CHBT) and the impact of doping with two kinds of nanoparticles; Fe3O4 magnetic nanoparticles and SbSI ferroelectric nanoparticles have been studied using the non-linear dynamic method through z-scan measurement technique. This was achieved utilizing CW He-Ne laser. The pure LC and magnetic LC nanoparticle composite samples had a maximum absorption while the ferroelectric LC nanoparticle composite had a minimum absorption of the incident light. The nonlinear refractive index was positive for the pure LC and the rod-like ferronematic LC composite samples, while it was negative for the ferroelectric LC composite. The studying of the nonlinear optical

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