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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Archaeological prospecting using the Electric Resistivity Imaging method at the Borsippa site, Near Babylon, Central Iraq
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Many important archaeological sites in Iraq still need to be preserved. Some of these sites were subjected to destruction and negligence. So, exploring these sites represents a priority for its protection. A 2D Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) as a non-invasive geophysical survey method was implemented at a part of the Borsippa archaeological site near Babylon to search for the subsurface archaeological artefacts/structures. Electrical resistivity measurements were carried out using a Dipole-Dipole array. Steps were taken to process and filter using Horizontal profiles, forward modelling, and 2D inverse models to analyze the resistivity measurements. The ERI inversion results show that the superficial conductive zone produced va

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Assessment of Groundwater Drinking Sources in Eku and Its Environs, in the Niger-Delta Region of Nigeria
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This study assessed the quality of hand-dug drinking water sources in Eku and its environs at Eku I, Samagidi, Eku 2, and Okuechi, using the weighted arithmetic water quality index method. Water samples collected from hand-dug wells at these locations returned values for analyzed parameters. Temperature 26 – 30(⁰C), dissolved Oxygen (D.O) 5.2-8mg/l, biological oxygen demand (BOD) 5.2-8(mg/l), Electrical Conductivity (EC) 77-119(µS/cm), Total suspended solids were  (TSS) 20000-120000(mg/l), pH 5.31-7.09, Phosphates 2-9.2(mg/l), Alkalinity 28-160(mg/l), Turbidity, 0.02 -0.19(NTU) Total coliform 2 -48 (cfu/ml) and fungal count 1-502. Variations in the values of these parameters were only significant for phosphate, alkalinity, and turb

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Iet Conference Proceedings
Spatial quantile autoregressive model with application to poverty rates in the districts of Iraq
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This research aims to provide insight into the Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression model (SARQR), which is more general than the Spatial Autoregressive model (SAR) and Quantile Regression model (QR) by integrating aspects of both. Since Bayesian approaches may produce reliable estimates of parameter and overcome the problems that standard estimating techniques, hence, in this model (SARQR), they were used to estimate the parameters. Bayesian inference was carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Several criteria were used in comparison, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R^2). The application was devoted on dataset of poverty rates acro

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi-level model of the factors that affect the escalation of dust in Iraq
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In this research The study of Multi-level  model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level  models and one of  the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly  among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences And Research
Study of Environmental and Biological characteristics of AL-Chibaish marshes and their effect to the biodiversity of southern Iraq
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The Mesopotamian marshlands faced a massive destruction from many years and this lead to effect to ecosystem. In this study a survey was made on the physical chemical and heavy metals characteristics and microbiological analysis of AL Chibaish marsh during the two months. Water analyses revealed unacceptable values for almost all physiochemical and biological properties, according to WHO standard limits for drinking water. Almost all major ions and heavy metal concentrations in water showed a distinct decreasing trend at the marsh outlet station compared to other stations. In general, major and minor ions, as well as heavy metals exhibit higher concentrations in location 1 than in location 3. The concentrations of heavy metals in water show

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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Breadth in the meaning of the "from Surah Maryam as a model.
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Prepositions have a key function, which is to associate parts of a sentence, called letters In addition, it adds the meanings of the verbs to the names, ie reached by them, and called by the coffin characters Qualities..

          I chose to search for the meaning of the preposition "from" in Surat Maryam to know its meanings in terms of originality and expansion, so the title of the research (the meanings of preposition "from" in terms of originality and expansion in Surat Maryam model(

 

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Biz method and classical methods in estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model
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Abstract

          Binary logistic regression model used in data classification and it is the strongest most flexible tool in study cases variable response binary when compared to linear regression. In this research, some classic methods were used to estimate parameters binary logistic regression model, included the maximum likelihood method, minimum chi-square method, weighted least squares, with bayes estimation , to choose the best method of estimation by default values to estimate parameters according two different models of general linear regression models ,and different s

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study The Influence of Doping Electric and Magnetic Nanoparticles on The Nonlinear Optical Properties of Nematic Liquid Crystals
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The nonlinear optical properties response of nematic liquid crystal (6CHBT) and the impact of doping with two kinds of nanoparticles; Fe3O4 magnetic nanoparticles and SbSI ferroelectric nanoparticles have been studied using the non-linear dynamic method through z-scan measurement technique. This was achieved utilizing CW He-Ne laser. The pure LC and magnetic LC nanoparticle composite samples had a maximum absorption while the ferroelectric LC nanoparticle composite had a minimum absorption of the incident light. The nonlinear refractive index was positive for the pure LC and the rod-like ferronematic LC composite samples, while it was negative for the ferroelectric LC composite. The studying of the nonlinear optical

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
Molecular Genetic variability in the D-loop region for females with Breast Cancer and the effect of the Chemotherapy
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