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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Archaeological prospecting using the Electric Resistivity Imaging method at the Borsippa site, Near Babylon, Central Iraq
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Many important archaeological sites in Iraq still need to be preserved. Some of these sites were subjected to destruction and negligence. So, exploring these sites represents a priority for its protection. A 2D Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) as a non-invasive geophysical survey method was implemented at a part of the Borsippa archaeological site near Babylon to search for the subsurface archaeological artefacts/structures. Electrical resistivity measurements were carried out using a Dipole-Dipole array. Steps were taken to process and filter using Horizontal profiles, forward modelling, and 2D inverse models to analyze the resistivity measurements. The ERI inversion results show that the superficial conductive zone produced va

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The role of annealing temperature on the optical energy gap and Urbach energy of Se:2%Sb thin films
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The optical energy gap(Eopt) and the width of the tails of localized states in the band gap (?E) for Se:2%Sb thin films prepared by thermal co-evaporation method as a function of annealing temperature are studied in the photon energy range ( 1 to 5.4)eV.Se2%Sb film was found to be indirect transition with energy gap of (1.973,2.077, 2.096, 2.17) eV at annealing temperature (295,370,445,520)K respectively. The Eopt and ?E of Se:2%Sb films as a function of annealing temperature showed an increase in Eopt and a decrease in ?E with increasing the annealing temperature. This behavior may be related to structural defects and dangling bonds.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Central Banking
USING SOME NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATORS OF THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN BANK DEPOSITS ON THE MONEY SUPPLY
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In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the constructivism Model for Chemistry Subject and Its Effect on the Life Skill by the Second Intermediate Female Students
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The research aims to identify the effect of teaching-learning design based on the constructivism theory on the life skills of middle stage students. The sample consisted of (60) students from one of the middle schools in Baghdad's governorate. The experimental group and control group consisted of 30 students for each group, the research tool was the life skills scale composed of (78) items. The scale proved its validity and reliability, which was found to be (0.85). The results showed a statistically significant difference in life skills between the two groups of research in favor of the experimental group, which studied the educational design according to models of constructivism theory compared to the usual method of teaching.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences And Research
Study of Environmental and Biological characteristics of AL-Chibaish marshes and their effect to the biodiversity of southern Iraq
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The Mesopotamian marshlands faced a massive destruction from many years and this lead to effect to ecosystem. In this study a survey was made on the physical chemical and heavy metals characteristics and microbiological analysis of AL Chibaish marsh during the two months. Water analyses revealed unacceptable values for almost all physiochemical and biological properties, according to WHO standard limits for drinking water. Almost all major ions and heavy metal concentrations in water showed a distinct decreasing trend at the marsh outlet station compared to other stations. In general, major and minor ions, as well as heavy metals exhibit higher concentrations in location 1 than in location 3. The concentrations of heavy metals in water show

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Scopus
Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Chalcogenide Letters
The dependence of the energy density states on the substitution of chemical elements in the Se6Te4-xSbx thin film
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The energy density state are the powerful factor for evaluate the validity of a material in any application. This research focused on examining the electrical properties of the Se6Te4- xSbx glass semiconductor with x=1, 2 and 3, using the thermal evaporation technique. D.C electrical conductivity was used by determine the current, voltage and temperatures, where the electrical conductivity was studied as a function of temperature and the mechanical electrical conduction were determined in the different conduction regions (the extended and localized area and at the Fermi level). In addition, the density of the energy states in these regions is calculated using the mathematical equations. The constants of energy density states are det

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
UV-Irradiation Effect on PC/DOP Composite in the C=C Region
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In this research we study the effect of UV radiation on pure PC samples and doped samples with plasticizer (DOP) for different exposure times (6, 12, 18, 24h). The study have been made on the change in the IR spectra causes by the UV radiation on both kinds of samples, besides the morphology changes were also studied by the optical microscope. From the results we conclude that the increasing of exposure causes the elaboration of CO2 and C2 gases.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study The Influence of Doping Electric and Magnetic Nanoparticles on The Nonlinear Optical Properties of Nematic Liquid Crystals
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The nonlinear optical properties response of nematic liquid crystal (6CHBT) and the impact of doping with two kinds of nanoparticles; Fe3O4 magnetic nanoparticles and SbSI ferroelectric nanoparticles have been studied using the non-linear dynamic method through z-scan measurement technique. This was achieved utilizing CW He-Ne laser. The pure LC and magnetic LC nanoparticle composite samples had a maximum absorption while the ferroelectric LC nanoparticle composite had a minimum absorption of the incident light. The nonlinear refractive index was positive for the pure LC and the rod-like ferronematic LC composite samples, while it was negative for the ferroelectric LC composite. The studying of the nonlinear optical

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2011
Journal Name
المؤتمر الدولي الثالث للاحصائيين العرب
Use a form ARX(p,q) to estimate time series for the Iraqi Economy
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Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 28 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Setting standards for the quality of the performance scale school Aariyadah from the viewpoint of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of Baghdad breeding
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To achieve excellence in the quality of performance in school sports administration, which has suffered a lot of problems and constraints on the administrative system, supervision and education level as well as the regulatory environment and available resources available and contribute to the provision of some processors and overcome difficulties to participate in the formation of the individual good of itself and society through sports activities. Hence the importance came this study to create a reference to the quality of the performance criteria school sports from the perspective of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of breeding Baghdad, to be of help to all those involved in school sports and maintaining an excep

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