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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Geoarabia
Sedimentological characterization of the mid-Cretaceous Mishrif reservoir in southern Mesopotamian Basin, Iraq
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ABSTRACT<p>The CenomanianÐEarly Turonian reservoirs of the Mishrif Formation of the Mesopotamian Basin hold more than one-third of the proven Iraqi oil reserves. Difficulty in predicting the presence of these mostly rudistic reservoir units is mainly due to the complex paleogeography of the Mishrif depositional basin, which has not been helped by numerous previous studies using differing facies schemes over local areas. Here we present a regional microfacies-based study that incorporates earlier data into a comprehensive facies model. This shows that extensive accumulation of rudist banks usually occurred along an exterior shelf margin of the basin along an axis that runs from Hamrin to Badra a</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Central Banking
USING SOME NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATORS OF THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN BANK DEPOSITS ON THE MONEY SUPPLY
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In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Improved Method to Correlate and Predict Isothermal VLE Data of Binary Mixtures
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Accurate predictive tools for VLE calculation are always needed. A new method is introduced for VLE calculation which is very simple to apply with very good results compared with previously used methods. It does not need any physical property except each binary system need tow constants only. Also, this method can be applied to calculate VLE data for any binary system at any polarity or from any group family. But the system binary should not confirm an azeotrope. This new method is expanding in application to cover a range of temperature. This expansion does not need anything except the application of the new proposed form with the system of two constants. This method with its development is applied to 56 binary mixtures with 1120 equili

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the constructivism Model for Chemistry Subject and Its Effect on the Life Skill by the Second Intermediate Female Students
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The research aims to identify the effect of teaching-learning design based on the constructivism theory on the life skills of middle stage students. The sample consisted of (60) students from one of the middle schools in Baghdad's governorate. The experimental group and control group consisted of 30 students for each group, the research tool was the life skills scale composed of (78) items. The scale proved its validity and reliability, which was found to be (0.85). The results showed a statistically significant difference in life skills between the two groups of research in favor of the experimental group, which studied the educational design according to models of constructivism theory compared to the usual method of teaching.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Determine an Equation to Calculate the Annual Maintenance Cost for Public Hospitals (Al Sader City Hospital as a Case Study)
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Maintenance of  hospital buildings and its management are regarded as an important subject which needs attention because hospital buildings are service institutions which are very important to a society, requiring the search for the best procedure to develop maintenance in hospitals. The research is aimed to determine an equation to estimate the annual maintenance cost for public hospital. To achieve this aim, Al-Sader City Hospital maintenance system in Al-Najaf province has been studied with its main elements through survey of data, records and reports relating to maintenance during the years of the study 2008-2014 and to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threat points in the current system through Swat analysi

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial Analysis of Soil Characteristics and its Effect on Determining the Susceptibility of lands of the RasheedRegion: A Study in Soil Geography
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Twelve pends were selected and distributed on three verticals transects paths on the Tigers river in Al Rasheed county.Passing through land covers, that classified and covers the whole region. Based on the 8 Landsat of the year 2015. It was oriental classified by using Erdas 10.2 . The pedons were distributed on the area of each varicty of these classes. the series of soil according of the transect series (DW74,MMg,DMu6 , Df96) respectively were represented P1 , P2 , P3 , P4  .

The second transits series(DM97,MM5,DM96,DF115) respectively were  represented P5 , P6 , P7 , P8  .The third  transits series(DM46,MMg,MF12,MM11) re

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Hydrochemistry of the Dammam Unconfined Aquifer Southern Desert, West Iraq
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The type of groundwater in the studied area is slightly brackish. In general, the dominant water type is calcium-sulfate. The reasons behind these different chemical groundwater types can be referred to the active ion exchange between the groundwater of the Dammam aquifer and Rus Formation. The groundwater of the Dammam unconfined aquifer is not suitable for human drinking in all the parameters properties. The groundwater class is fair in the Qasir Al-Ukhaider area, while the Shebcha area and Al-Salman area are poor class except the eastern part of Al-Salman area is very poor.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 28 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Setting standards for the quality of the performance scale school Aariyadah from the viewpoint of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of Baghdad breeding
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To achieve excellence in the quality of performance in school sports administration, which has suffered a lot of problems and constraints on the administrative system, supervision and education level as well as the regulatory environment and available resources available and contribute to the provision of some processors and overcome difficulties to participate in the formation of the individual good of itself and society through sports activities. Hence the importance came this study to create a reference to the quality of the performance criteria school sports from the perspective of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of breeding Baghdad, to be of help to all those involved in school sports and maintaining an excep

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 19 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
A study of the mechanical and electrical activities of the heart and their relationship to the phosphagenic and lactic energy systems of young basketball players
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It was found that there was a significant correlation between all tests of the mechanical and electrical activity of the heart (systolic force FC, stroke volume SV, end-diastolic volume, EF volume, and left ventricular volume during diastole LVDD) with the test of the oxygen-phosphating energy system (Markaria). - As safe (Margaria-Kalamen( It was found that there is a significant correlation between all tests of the mechanical and electrical activity of the heart (myocardial systolic force FC, stroke volume SV, end-diastolic volume EDV, and the percentage of heart pumpingEF blood, and left ventricular volume during diastole (LVDD) with the Lactational Oxygen Energy System Test (Wingate Test 30 Second(

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
English Influence of Workplace Incivility on Psychological Well-being of Nurses in the Southern of Iraq
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Abstract

Objectives: The main objective of this study is to find the influence level of nursing incivility on psychological well-being among nurses in southeastern Iraq.

Methods: In this descriptive correlational study, a convenience sample of 250 nurses working in three government hospitals in Missan province in the south of Iraq were surveyed using the nursing incivility scale (NIS) and Ryff's psychological well-being scale (PWB) from November 2021, to July 2022. A multivariate multiple regression analysis was done to analyze the multivariate effect of workplace incivility on the psychological well-being of nurses.

Results: The study results show a

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