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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Physiochemical Properties of Wells Water in Alboalwan Region /Alanbar Province / Iraq.
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  The physiochemical properties are considered to be as important guidelines for quality of water and their use for social, agricultural and different ecological applications. Fourteen properties were investigated in this study, including (PH, Electrical Conductivity (EC), Total Dissolved  Salts(TDS), Turbidity,Total Hard ness(TH),Sodium(Na),Calcium(Ca),Magnesium(Mg),Carbonate(CO3),Chloride (Cl),Phosphate(PO4),Nitrite(NO2),Nitrate(NO3),and Sulphate(SO4) for the wells water at Albualwan region in Al - Anbar province east of Iraq . The results showed that the studied properties recorded values since were (7.3,2230.5Ms\Cm ,869.5ppm,0.32NTU,521.31ppm,3.6gr\L,111.5ppm,139.05ppm,296.86ppm,  116 .6ppm,0.42ppm,0,02ppm,4.7ppm and 4

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 19 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
A study of the mechanical and electrical activities of the heart and their relationship to the phosphagenic and lactic energy systems of young basketball players
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It was found that there was a significant correlation between all tests of the mechanical and electrical activity of the heart (systolic force FC, stroke volume SV, end-diastolic volume, EF volume, and left ventricular volume during diastole LVDD) with the test of the oxygen-phosphating energy system (Markaria). - As safe (Margaria-Kalamen( It was found that there is a significant correlation between all tests of the mechanical and electrical activity of the heart (myocardial systolic force FC, stroke volume SV, end-diastolic volume EDV, and the percentage of heart pumpingEF blood, and left ventricular volume during diastole (LVDD) with the Lactational Oxygen Energy System Test (Wingate Test 30 Second(

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Influence of Kaolinite and pH on Permeability in the Zubair Reservoir in the North Rumaila Oilfield, Southern Iraq
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This research involves the study of permeability declination as a result of kaolinite due to the changing in pH in the Zubair reservoir (Lower Cretaceous) during the secondary production by water injection method. Four wells and six core samples within the North Rumaila field are studied, Minerals have been diagnosed by XRD and this specific site of clay minerals was diagnosed within the core samples by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The core samples are also studied petrogrphically using the polarizing microscope and found that they mainly consist of quartz, while the predominant clay is kaolinite. The effect of pH on the values of permeability was examined through a series of laboratory experiments, as it has been tested in the ca

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Facies Analysis and Stratigraphic Development of the Zubair Formation in the Mesopotamian Zone, Southern Iraq
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The Barremain-Aptian succession represented by two types of deposits, Clasits deposits of Zubair Formation. This formation is the most significant sandstone reservoir in Iraq, Deposited in fluvio- deltaic, deltaic and marine environments during the Barremain to Early Aptian age.

The area of study is located in the Mesopotamian Zone at S

The Barremain-Aptian succession represented by the Clasits deposits of Zubair Formation. This formation is the most significant sandstone reservoir in Iraq which deposited in fluvio- deltaic, deltaic and marine environments during the Barremain to Early Aptian age. The area of study is located in the Mesopotamian Zone at Southern part of Iraq which represented by five oil fields (Nasira, L

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Use Dividend Discount Model , DDM in Stocks Valuation With Framework of Inflation: An Applied Study
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The theme of this Study presents analysis and discuss to the "Share the framework for assessing inflation," a practical study in a sample of joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the years (2009-2013). To determine the extent of the disparity between the nominal value of shares (Nominal Value) before deducting inflation and the real value (Real Value) per share, after deducting inflation in the case of zero growth. The study relied on annual reports of the companies of the research sample of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as the Iraqi Securities Commission. Besides the annual reports issued by the Ministry of Planning, as well as annual reports and statistical bulletin issued by the Central Bank of Iraq. It is fra

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Central Banking
USING SOME NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATORS OF THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN BANK DEPOSITS ON THE MONEY SUPPLY
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In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Use of Gamma Ray Log Data to Compute and Study the Deposition of Shale Volume of Mishrif Formation in Middle and Southern Parts of Iraq
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The shale volume is one of the most important properties that can be computed depending on gamma ray log. The shale volume of Mishrif Formation (carbonate formation from middle Cenomanian- early Turonian) was studied for the regional area of the middle and southern parts of Iraq. The gamma ray log data from seventeen  wells ( Kf-3,Kf-4, Ad-1,Ad -2,Dh-1, Bu-47, Ns-2, Ns-4, Am-1,Am-2,Hf-2,Hf-115,Mj-3,Mj-15, Su-7,Wq-15 and  Lu-7) distributed in the study area were used to compute the shale volume of Mishrif Formation. From the available data of the considered wells, a regional isopach map of Mishrif Formation was obtained. The isopach map indicates that the maximum thickness of Mishrif Formation is located at the eastern part of t

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Salinity mapping model and brine chemistry of Mishrif reservoir in Basrah oilfields, Southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Importance of Using Concentrator Solar Energy Technologies in Anbar Province
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The aim of the research is a techno-economic analysis of the use of concentrated solar energy technologies in the Iraqi city, considering the concentrated solar energy technology is a renewable energy technology that derives its resources from the sun and is replenished at a rate that exceeds its use. It is also inexhaustible and environmentally friendly energy from its environmental footprint, unlike traditional fossil energy which produces greenhouse gases and a major cause of global warming.

This research measures the costs of concentrated solar energy technology to Reduce the effects caused by other energies and work to fill part of the shortfall in the total electricity production, even at a specific percentage, in preparati

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 27 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Statistical Fluctuations of Energy Spectra in the Isobar A = 68 Nuclei
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Statistical fluctuations of nuclear energy spectra for the isobar A = 68 were examined by means of the random matrix theory together with the nuclear shell model. The isobar A = 68 nuclei are suggested to consist of an inert core of 56Ni with 12 nucleons in f5p-space (2p3/2, 1f5/2 and 2p1/2 orbitals). The nuclear excitation energies, required by this work, were obtained through performing f5p-shell model calculations using the isospin formalism f5pvh interaction with realistic single particle energies. All calculations of the present study were conducted using the OXBASH code. The calculated level densities were found to have a Gaussian shape. The distributions of level spacing P(s) an

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