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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Religious references to art of miniatures In the Iranian school (Behzad is a model): عبدالرزاق جبار رحيل
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The study examines the religious references of the art of miniatures in the Iranian school "Bahzad model" completed in Iran during the twelfth century AH, according to the controls and characteristics of the authoritative references. The researcher presented the problem of research, its importance, the need for it and its purpose, defined the terms in the research. The theoretical framework came with three investigations. The first topic of the concept of the reference in the field of knowledge, which concluded the most important features of the reference, is that each symbolic existence corresponds to a real existence and symbolic presence is an input to the realization of the reference. The reference then becomes a sign that acts as a

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between the Methods of Ridge Regression and Liu Type to Estimate the Parameters of the Negative Binomial Regression Model Under Multicollinearity Problem by Using Simulation
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The problem of Multicollinearity is one of the most common problems, which deal to a large extent with the internal correlation between explanatory variables. This problem is especially Appear in economics and applied research, The problem of Multicollinearity has a negative effect on the regression model, such as oversized variance degree and estimation of parameters that are unstable when we use the Least Square Method ( OLS), Therefore, other methods were used to estimate the parameters of the negative binomial model, including the estimated Ridge Regression Method and the Liu type estimator, The negative binomial regression model is a nonline

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of Communities of practice the knowledge in adoption of, Strategic Change choices
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  The research aimed to diagnose and interpretation of impact nature between Communities of practice dimensions (participation and spreading knowledge, confidence, social capital build) deportation strategic change choices (reengineering business process, business re-structuring, business innovation) in construction companies in the Iraqi Ministry of Construction and Housing, the research tested 4 construction companies working in investing sector in Iraq, the research applied on a sample of 102 persons who participated in Communities of practice distributed in several administrative levels (directors, division directors, project directors and engineers) the research used questionnaire as a main tool for dat

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Microscopic calculations of the electric Quadrupole transition strengths of Be isotopes (9, 10, 12, 14)
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Electric Quadrupole transitions are calculated for beryllium isotopes (9, 10, 12 and 14). Calculations with configuration mixing shell model usually under estimate the measured E2 transition strength. Although the consideration of a large basis no core shell model with 2ℏtruncations for 9,10,12 and14 where all major shells s, p, sd are used, fail to describe the measured reduced transition strength without normalizing the matrix elements with effective charges to compensate for the discarded space. Instead of using constant effective charges, excitations out of major shell space are taken into account through a microscopic theory which allows particle–hole excitations from the core and model space orbits to all higher orbits

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Tribal separation and its relation to the organization of the community from the point of view of tribal sheikhs Field study in the City of Baghdad Sadr City model))
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One of topics that occupied alarge area  in Iraqi  society  at the moment is the  issue( of tribal  separation and its  relation  to the organization of  the community ) so we see in the civilizations and heritage  of each community aset  of provisions and laws that take the form of status   customary or religious it is indicative of the great interest in Iraqi society in cotrolling the behavior of individuals to comply with values and social laws and become their behavior is consistent with the behavior of the total and adhere to the social values and be productive individuals within  the subject and this can only be  achieved  from the social co

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
An Educational Model in Journalistic Production Course to Develop the Creative Thinking Skills of Printing Design Students
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The printing designer's creative thinking is a deliberate  mental process based on specific skills that stimulate the motivation of  the student to learn and call for  new information for the investigation and research to discover the problems and attitudes and through reformulating the experience in new patterns depending on the active imagination and the flexible scientific thinking through providing the largest number possible  of various unfamiliar  printing design models, and testing their suitability and then readjusting the results with the availability of  suitable educational, learning and academic atmosphere.

The designer's creative thinking depends on main skills. Fluency skill is to put t

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Exploring the Effects of European Union Conditionality Language on European Mediterranean Human Rights Dialogue
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Since more than a decade, human rights dialogue in the European Mediterranean Region has been marked by a number of tensions. Although a number of factors contribute to such disputes, the effect of human rights conditionality, which ties EU economic cooperation progression with partner countries human rights advancement, on the dialogue has not been studied. Understanding the aspects, impacts, and effects of conditionality on Euro-Med relations is crucial for furthering dialogue. Yet this variable has been almost entirely neglected in academic and policy research. The research concludes several direct and indirect impacts of conditionality on human rights dialogue using a mixed methodology approach. Direct effects are reflected in the wi

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Poverty and its Relations to Some Social Variables (Children in the Primary Stage as a Model)
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The phenomenon of poverty is one of the most important phenomena facing the world at large. Despite the tremendous technological progress witnessed by mankind and despite the unprecedented high levels of world economic production, poverty remains the greatest challenge facing the world. Statistics and studies have shown that poverty is caused by several problems: (health, social, economic, educational, etc.) These problems are obstacles to the ability to obtain employment opportunities, which leads in the beginning to the growth phenomenon of unemployment, and ultimately to the growth of poverty.

The results of a range of research in the field of psychology have confirmed that children from poor homes suffer from a high level of

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 05 2023
Journal Name
Open Access Macedonian Journal Of Medical Sciences
Past Myocardial Infarctions and Gender Predict the LVEF Regardless of the Status of Coronary Collaterals: An AI-Informed Research
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BACKGROUND: The degree of the development of coronary collaterals is long considered an alternate – that is, a collateral – source of blood supply to an area of the myocardium threatened with vascular ischemia or insufficiency. Hence, the coronary collaterals are beneficial but can also promote harmful (adverse) effects. For instance, the coronary steal effect during the myocardial hyperemia phase and that of restenosis following coronary angioplasty. OBJECTIVES: Our study explores the contribution of coronary collaterals – if any exist – while considering other potential predictors, including demographics and medical history, toward the left ventricular (LV) dysfunction measured through the LV ejection fraction (LVEF). METH

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