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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between the Methods of Ridge Regression and Liu Type to Estimate the Parameters of the Negative Binomial Regression Model Under Multicollinearity Problem by Using Simulation
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The problem of Multicollinearity is one of the most common problems, which deal to a large extent with the internal correlation between explanatory variables. This problem is especially Appear in economics and applied research, The problem of Multicollinearity has a negative effect on the regression model, such as oversized variance degree and estimation of parameters that are unstable when we use the Least Square Method ( OLS), Therefore, other methods were used to estimate the parameters of the negative binomial model, including the estimated Ridge Regression Method and the Liu type estimator, The negative binomial regression model is a nonline

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
EXTENSION ADMINISTRATION PERFORMANCE UNDER QUALITY STANDARDS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORKING STAFF IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND VEGETABLES FARMERS OF CENTRAL GOVERNORATES IN IRAQ
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This research aims to identify the level of extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of the working staff in agricultural extension at the level of the general extension body and agricultural directorates and agricultural division.this was to identify the extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of vegetables growers , random sample was selected from the central region governorates Baghdad , Diyala , Babel , karbala and Al-Najaf , a random sample from the workers in the general body numbered 56 employee , sample of staff working in agricultural extension was selected at the level of agricultural directorates in proportion

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Religious references to art of miniatures In the Iranian school (Behzad is a model): عبدالرزاق جبار رحيل
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The study examines the religious references of the art of miniatures in the Iranian school "Bahzad model" completed in Iran during the twelfth century AH, according to the controls and characteristics of the authoritative references. The researcher presented the problem of research, its importance, the need for it and its purpose, defined the terms in the research. The theoretical framework came with three investigations. The first topic of the concept of the reference in the field of knowledge, which concluded the most important features of the reference, is that each symbolic existence corresponds to a real existence and symbolic presence is an input to the realization of the reference. The reference then becomes a sign that acts as a

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determining the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq (analytical study for the period 1990-2014)
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The objective of this study is to determine the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq for the period 1990-2014 and to indicate the nature of the technological progress used in it. To achieve this objective we have built an econometric model, by adapting the production function constant elasticity for substitution, using multiple regression, and enforcement, SPSS program, and using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). The results showed that quantitative factors (labour and capital) are the main sources of growth the cement industry in Iraq, and the qualitative factors (technological progress) did not contribute effectively to achieve this growth. And that the production techniques adopted in the cement industry in

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Sonic Log to Predict Abnormal Pressure Zones in Selected Oil Wells (Western of Iraq)
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Two oil wells were tested to find the abnormal pressure zones using sonic log technique. We found that well Abu-Jir-3 and Abu-Jir-5 had an abnormal pressure zones from depth 4340 to 4520 feet and 4200 to 4600 feet, respectively. The maximum difference between obtained results and the field measured results did not exceed 2.4%.
In this paper, the formation pressures were expressed in terms of pressure gradient which sometimes reached up to twice the normal pressure gradient.
Drilling and developing such formations were dangerous and expensive.
The plotted figures showed a clear derivation from the normal trend which confirmed the existence of abnormal pressure zones.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Importance of Using Concentrator Solar Energy Technologies in Anbar Province
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The aim of the research is a techno-economic analysis of the use of concentrated solar energy technologies in the Iraqi city, considering the concentrated solar energy technology is a renewable energy technology that derives its resources from the sun and is replenished at a rate that exceeds its use. It is also inexhaustible and environmentally friendly energy from its environmental footprint, unlike traditional fossil energy which produces greenhouse gases and a major cause of global warming.

This research measures the costs of concentrated solar energy technology to Reduce the effects caused by other energies and work to fill part of the shortfall in the total electricity production, even at a specific percentage, in preparati

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determination of the standard cost of raw materials for the activity of extracting crude oil and gas by application in the North Oil Company
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There are many problems facing the economic entities  as a result of its mass production &variation of its products  , the matter which had  increased the need & importance of cost accounting which is regarded a main tool for the managerial control.

The actual costing system is unable to meet the contemporary management needs ,so the Standard costing system appear to provide the management  with required information to perform its functions by the best use& way.

This research aims to determine  the standard cost for the  direct material for oil extraction activity by applying it in the north oil company.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Requirements of stress tests model and the possibility to apply in Iraqi banks exploratory study of the views of a sample of staff in the central Bank of Iraq .
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Abstract

This research attempt to explain the essential aspects of one important model in management of Bank risks , that is (stress testing) , which increase the concentrate on it resulting the negative affects of Global financial crisis that it accuar in 2008 to study the application possibilities in iraqian banks to enhancing the safety and financial soundness Becuase the classical tools  in Risk management don’t give clear image on Banks ability  in facing risks, hence the Basel committee on Banking supervision focusing in agreement of Basel 2,3 on stress testing when it doing the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) .

To achieving the reseach obje

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
An Educational Model in Journalistic Production Course to Develop the Creative Thinking Skills of Printing Design Students
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The printing designer's creative thinking is a deliberate  mental process based on specific skills that stimulate the motivation of  the student to learn and call for  new information for the investigation and research to discover the problems and attitudes and through reformulating the experience in new patterns depending on the active imagination and the flexible scientific thinking through providing the largest number possible  of various unfamiliar  printing design models, and testing their suitability and then readjusting the results with the availability of  suitable educational, learning and academic atmosphere.

The designer's creative thinking depends on main skills. Fluency skill is to put t

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