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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the Best production function of the General Company for Iraqi Cement for the period (1996-2010)
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     The General Company for Iraqi Cement is regarded as one of the companies that contribute to support the Iraqi economy. It contributes to provide the material of cement which fulfils the consumer and investment need in the markets in competitive prices and not to resort to the importing of the cement from abroad. That would save a great share of the purchase parity of the poor sectors of society. The estimation  of production function will contribute to putting the company.

The application functions of  the standard production of  benefit critical to clarify the actual relationship between production & its components, & allow to clarify the i

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 05 2023
Journal Name
Migration Letters
The Impact of Climate Change on the Increase in the Frequency of Drought in the Eastern Region of Iraq
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Aim: This abstract aims to highlight the critical nature of climate change as a pressing challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. It underscores the severe consequences it poses to essential facets of human existence, including water and energy resources, agricultural production, and the broader environmental systems. Method: The abstract primarily utilizes a descriptive approach to emphasize the impact of climate change on the Middle East, particularly the Arab region. It relies on a review of existing knowledge and data related to climate change and its effects on ecosystems and drought patterns. Results: The abstract outlines the direct and indirect repercussions of climate change on human life and the environment. It draws atten

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An improved neurogenetic model for recognition of 3D kinetic data of human extracted from the Vicon Robot system
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These days, it is crucial to discern between different types of human behavior, and artificial intelligence techniques play a big part in that.  The characteristics of the feedforward artificial neural network (FANN) algorithm and the genetic algorithm have been combined to create an important working mechanism that aids in this field. The proposed system can be used for essential tasks in life, such as analysis, automation, control, recognition, and other tasks. Crossover and mutation are the two primary mechanisms used by the genetic algorithm in the proposed system to replace the back propagation process in ANN. While the feedforward artificial neural network technique is focused on input processing, this should be based on the proce

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Role of the evaluation process of the staff in determining the training programs Field research in the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Health / Iraq
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         The objective of this research is to determine the relationship between the performance evaluation process and the training programs for the employees, to identify the extent of the organization's commitment to perform the performance evaluation process for its employees and to use the results of this process in determining the appropriate training programs. Performance evaluation, functional analysis, evaluation method used, dependent variable (training programs) and its dimensions, type of programs, program objectives, program curriculum, And the application of the field research methodology and the questionnaire, which included 146 individuals to know their views and analyz

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Predict the Laser Power and Recovery Period in Treatment by Endovenous Laser Ablation (EVLA)
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            Eight patients (3 male and 5 female) were treated in this study by Endovenous Laser Ablation (EVLA); Mathematical models are proposed to estimate the applied laser power and to assess the recovery period. The estimations of the applied laser power and recovery period in these models will be depended mainly on the diameter of the incompetent vein.  In addition, Excel Program was utilized to find the proposed models.  A 1470 nm diode laser up to 15W continuous power (CW) was used in the treatment of venous ulcers by EVLA procedure. Following up by duplex ultrasound was started in the 1st week after the first session until the vein is completely closed. The present study concluded that the relationship both between

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Development of New Models to Determine the Rheological Parameters of Water-Based Drilling Fluid using Artificial Neural Networks
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It is well known that drilling fluid is a key parameter for optimizing drilling operations, cleaning the hole, and managing the rig hydraulics and margins of surge and swab pressures. Although the experimental works represent valid and reliable results, they are expensive and time consuming. In contrast, continuous and regular determination of the rheological fluid properties can perform its essential functions during good construction. The aim of this study is to develop empirical models to estimate the drilling mud rheological properties of water-based fluids with less need for lab measurements. This study provides two predictive techniques, multiple regression analysis and artificial neural networks, to determine the rheological

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of determining the economic quantity of the demand in reducing the total costs of inventory A case study in the Institute of Technical Management / Baghdad
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ABSTRACT

The research aims to identify the role of scientific planning of inventory by determining the quantity of economic demand and the number of times of purchase and associated annual total costs to achieve a sufficient and appropriate level of inventory . The research was based on the case study methodology. Materials of increasing demand in the Institute of Technical Management and knowledge of the degree of conformity of the procurement plan with the standard indicators adopted in a scientific method ,its include economic order quantity and number of purchasing times .
one of The main results  of the research was  the existence of a large difference between the quantity of the economic purchase of ea

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Principal components and Partial least squares methods to estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model in the case of linear multiplication problem
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Abstract

  The logistic regression model is one of the nonlinear models that aims at obtaining highly efficient capabilities, It also the researcher an idea of the effect of the explanatory variable on the binary response variable.                                                                                  &nb

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a model to reduce the cost of hajj in the Iraqi Authority for Hajj and Umrah
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The research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Psychosocial Rehabilitation
A comparative study of the mechanical and electrical activities of the heart according to the energy systems of advanced players
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The study aims to identify the mechanical and electrical activities of the heart according to the energy systems of advanced players and to detect the differences between the energy systems in terms of the mechanical and electrical activities of the heart for advanced players. It was clear from the results of the significance of the differences between the three groups according to the energy systems of the advanced players in all research variables that (the non-oxygenic system "Lactic"), which represents the advanced players in the arches (800 m, 1500 m) was the first in most tests of mechanical and electrical activities of the heart, which is (Margaria-Kalamen, Wingate, systolic muscle strength of the heart FC, Stroke Volume SV

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