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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of applying the CAMELS banking assessment model asa control tool On Iraqi private commercial banks for the period 2016 -2020
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The banking sector is currently facing great challenges resulting from intense competition in the financial environment, and this is what makes the supreme audit bodies and the Central Bank audit as the highest supervisory authority on banks in order to achieve profit and not be exposed to loss, and this requires identifying the banking strengths and risks that constitute points Weakness that affects the future performance and the life of the bank, which requires special supervisory care, and from this point of view, the research aims to use the CAMELS model as a control tool in banks, through the use of its six indicators: capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, profits, liquidity And sensitivity to market risks, th

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Target Costing in Implementation Confrontational Strategy Applied study in General Company for Electronic Industries
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This research has come out with that strategies made by Porter as generally strategies applicable to any size and type of economic units cannot be applied to many of the economic units in the world in generally and in Iraq especially not a lot of economic units have the resources and competencies that enable them to provide a unique product of its kind in the minds of customers and then adopt a differentiation strategy  and not a lot of economic units have the resources and competencies that make them the cost leader. Differentiators and cost leaders are minority in the world while not differentiators and not cost leaders are majority in the world.

The economic units are not differentiators and not c

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Toward a theoretical model of the terrorist personality and differentiation from psychopathic personality
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The current theoretical research targeted to construct a model of terrorist personality and its differentiation from psychopathic personality . Several assumptions or theories of perspectives of psychopathic personality have been compared with the terrorist personality studies that concerned . The suggested theoretical  model is interrupting the terrorist personality . The conclusions , discussions are mentioned. Finally, recommendation is suggested .

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Principles of sustainable environmental design in the rehabilitation of the marshes region.
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The Marshlands cover an area of ​​about 24% of the land area of ​​Iraq, which gives it special importance to the country with its resources, resources and human capabilities, and because the conditions of this region are different from other areas environmentally and living necessitates subject to certain design principles achieve sustainable environmental integration to maintain them from For future generations, the idea of ​​research is crystallized by the interest of environmental organizations and urban designers in planning and establishing special laws to exploit the region environmentally, economically and tourism, especially after the current focus of the country's economic revival. T tourism and begin the development

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimation of Some Biomarkers and Cholesterol / HDL Ratio to Predict the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Rheumatoid Arthritis
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Rheumatoid arthritis (AR) is one of the chronic diseases resulting in many complications such as cardiovascular disease (CVD). Any change in the lipid profiles and myocardial markers indicates cardiovascular disease risk, so this study is designed to monitor the pattern of lipid profiles and myocardial markers in newly diagnosed RA patients. Blood samples were collected from 70 Iraqi patients newly diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (male and female) and 30 healthy served as control. These individuals were aged 35-65 years. The serum samples were obtained to determine myocardial markers; included troponin, creatinine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase GOT; and lipid profiles; such as choleste

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effectiveness of Nanomaterial in the Roof of the Building to Achieve Energy Conservation for Indoor Environment of the Building
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The construction sector consumes large amounts of energy during the lifetime of a building. This consumption starts with manufacturing and transferring building materials to the sites and demolishing this building after a long time of occupying it. The topic of energy conservation and finding the solution inside the building spaces become an important and urgent necessity. It is known that the roof is exposed to a high amount of thermal loads compared to other elements in a building envelope, so this needs some solutions and treatments to control the flow of the heat through them. These solutions and treatments may be achieved by using nanomaterials. Recently, nanomaterials have high properties, so that this made them go

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Laplace Distribution And Probabilistic (bi) In Linear Programming Model
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The theory of probabilistic programming  may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, pro­duction and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 13 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Regression Analysis Models to Predict the 28 -day Compressive Strength Using Accelerated Curing Tests
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Regression analysis models are adopted by using SPSS program to predict the 28-day compressive strength as dependent variable and the accelerated compressive strength as independent variable. Three accelerated curing method was adopted, warm water (35ºC) and autogenous according to ASTM C C684-99 and the British method (55ºC) according to BS1881: Part 112:1983. The experimental concrete mix design was according to ACI 211.1. Twenty eight concrete mixes with slump rang (25-50) mm and (75-100)mm for rounded and crushed coarse aggregate with cement content (585, 512, 455, 410, 372 and 341)Kg/m3.

      The experimental results showed that the acc

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Calculation of the Magnetic Dipole and Electric Quadrupole Moments of some Sodium Isotopes using Shell Model with Skyrme Interaction
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         In the present work, the magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole moments for some sodium isotopes have been calculated using the shell model, considering the effect of the two-body effective interactions and the single-particle potentials. These isotopes are; 21Na (3/2+), 23Na (3/2+), 25Na (5/2+), 26Na (3+), 27Na (5/2+), 28Na (1+) and, 29Na (3/2+). The one-body transition density matrix elements (OBDM) have been calculated using the (USDA, USDB, HBUMSD and W) two-body effective interactions carried out in the sd-shell model space. The sd shell model space consists of the active 2s1/2, 1d5/2,

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Develop Bactra system to determine Mutagens in the Environment, Food Second: use Hashr agents acridine orange
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Use Almtafr Alcderan orange, one of the factors Hashr Alttafaria to study Alatjabh isolates elected on the basis of specifications so that was a positive response with mutagen record and system consisting of three isolates used Alcderan orange graded concentrations and under specific Trov similar conditions Alttafar Pal NTG compared

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