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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analyzing the content of the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade according to the skills of knowledge economy
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The current research aims to identify the extent to which cognitive economics skills are included in the content of the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade, and the research sample was represented in the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade. A list of knowledge economy skills was prepared (6) main skills (basic skills, communication skills, thinking skills, work skills Group, information-gathering skill, behavioral skills (and (20) sub-skills) (reading, writing, operations, computer skills and employability, oral expression and written communication, dialogue, persuasion, influence and arousal, analysis, problem-solving, decision-making, suggestions and hypotheses and employing them. Controlling, directing

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards
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The current research seeks to Analyze third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards for academic year (2016-2017). To do this, a list of sustainable development standards that should be included in chemistry book was designed based on the previous studies. The first version of the list consisted of (50) sub-case divided into three standards (social, economic, and environmental) which was exposed to group of experts in teaching chemistry and teaching methods. The list has modified to (43) sub-case. The researcher followed the implicit and explicit meaning in his analysis: one for recording and repetition and the other for frequency. The result showed that third intermediate chemistry book has achieved (20)

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the structure of salaries of public sector workers for strategic planning purposes An analytical study in the general body of groundwater
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The research discusses the problem of salaries in the public sector in terms of the process of analyzing its structure and the possibility of benefiting from the information provided by the analysis process for the strategic planning process, and the General Authority for Groundwater has been adopted and one of the formations of the Ministry of Water Resources, which is centrally funded, to represent the salary structure of its employees (1117) employees be a field of research, as the salary structure in it was analyzed for the period between (2014-2019) using the quantitative approach to analysis and by relying on a number of statistical tools in the analysis process, including mathematical circles, upper limits, lower limits, p

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 02 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Linguistic Errors in second language learning through Error Analysis theory: هه‌ڵه‌ زمانییه‌كان له‌ فێربوونی زمانی دووه‌مدا (له‌ ڕوانگه‌ی تیۆری شیكاری هه‌ڵه‌ییه‌وه‌)
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Second language learner may commit many mistakes in the process of second language learning. Throughout the Error Analysis Theory, the present study discusses the problems faced by second language learners whose Kurdish is their native language. At the very stages of language learning, second language learners will recognize the errors committed, yet they would not identify the type, the stage and error type shift in the process of language learning. Depending on their educational background of English as basic module, English department students at the university stage would make phonological, morphological, syntactic, semantic and lexical as well as speech errors. The main cause behind such errors goes back to the cultural differences

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Feminist Discourse Analysis of Writer's Gender Biases about Violence Against Women
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    The present study is concerned with the writer's ideologies towards violence against women. The study focuses on analyzing violence against women in English novel to see the extent the writers are being affected and influenced by their genders. It also focuses on showing to what extent the writer's ideologies are reflected in their works. Gender influences social groups ideologies; therefore, when a writer discusses an issue that concerns the other gender, they will be either subjective or objective depending on the degree of influence, i.e., gender has influenced their thoughts as well as behaviors. A single fact may be presented differently by different writers depending on the range of a

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modified Mathematical Model of Tumor Treatment by Radiotherapy
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In this research, a mathematical model of tumor treatment by radiotherapy is studied and a new modification for the model is proposed as well as introducing the check for the suggested modification. Also the stability of the modified model is analyzed in the last section.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
تحليل محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني متوسط وفق مهارات التفكير المنطقي
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يهدف البحث الحالي إلى تحليل محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني متوسط وفق مهارات التفكير المنطقي للعام الدراسي(2015- 2016)م, ولتحقيق ذلك تم استخدام المنهج الوصفي التحليلي (تحليل محتوى) لملاءمته لطبيعة هدف البحث, وتم اعداد أداة البحث بالأعتماد على قائمة مهارات التفكير المنطقي بعد مراجعة الأدبيات والدراسات السابقة, وتم عرضها على مجموعة من المحكمين المتخصصين في المناهج وطرائق التدريس وعلم النفس وعلم الحاسبات والقياس

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Critical Discourse Analysis of Donald Trump's Inaugural Speech
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       Political speeches are represented in different shapes as political forum, events or as inaugural speech. This research critically analyzes the inaugural Speech of the President Donald Trump which was delivered on 20th ,January, 2017 from the site<www.cnn.com> retrieved on 10th ,May,2017. The objectives of the study are: First: classifying and discussing well known micro structures (linguistic feature) of the speech, and second: classifying the macro structures i.e. the delivered political inaugural speech  in which he includes social structures. To reach to the objectives of the study, the researcher will adopt Norman Fairclough’s three dimensional Analytical Model(

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Science book second grade content analysis according to the Dimensions Of Sustainable Development
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The objective of this research is to analyze the content of science textbook at the elementary level, according to the dimensions of sustainable development for the academic year (2015-2016). To achieve this goal has been to build a list with dimensions of sustainable development to be included in science textbooks in primary school, after seeing the collection of literature and research and studies, as has been reached to the list of the dimensions of the three sustainable development and social, economic and environmental in the initial image consisted of (63) the issue of sub-divided the three-dimensional, the menu and offered a group of arbitrators and specialists in curriculum and teaching methods, and thus the menu consiste

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Interpretation des Gedichts ,,Sachliche Romanze,, von Erich Kästner
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Die Forschung besteht aus zwei Kapiteln: das erste Kapitel geht es nur um die Form des Gedichts, aber das zweite Kapitel geht es um die Analyse des Gedichts, und das ist das Wesen der Arbeit, gleichzeitig enthält das zweite Kapitel auch zwei wichtige Disziplinen.

Die erste Disziplin handelt es sich um die Struktur des Gedichts, nämlich die lyrische Seite; Reim,Rhythmus,Strophe,und Versmaße, aber die zweite Disziplin handelt es sich um den Inhalt, erklärt hier sowohl das Wesen als auch das Ziel des Gedichts, denn das Gedicht besteht aus vier Strophen, die miteinander zu sehr nicht getrennt sind.

Der Dichter beschreibt in erster Strophe die Beziehung zwischen einem Paar, das genau acht Jahre zusammen gelebt hat. Die bei

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