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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In Silico Analysis of Regulatory Elements of the Vitamin D Receptor
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Vitamin D receptor (VDR) is a nuclear transcription factor that controls gene expression. Its impaired expression was found to be related to different diseases. VDR also acts as a regulator of different pathways including differentiation, inflammation, calcium and phosphate absorption, etc. but there is no sufficient knowledge about the regulation of the gene itself. Therefore, a better understanding of the genetic and epigenetic factors regulating the VDR may facilitate the improvement of strategies for the prevention and treatment of diseases associated with dysregulation of VDR. In the present investigation, a set of databases and methods were used to identify putative functional elements in the VDR locus. Histone modifications, CpG I

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
مجلة البحوث التربوية والنفسية
تحليل محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني المتوسط وفق القيم العلمية والأخلاقية
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يهدف هذا البحث الى تصميم قائمة بمؤشرات القيم العلمية والاخلاقية التي ينبغي توافرها في محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني المتوسط، وتحليل محتوى الكتاب المذكور آنفاً وفقاً لها، وذلك عن طريق الإجابة عن السؤال الآتي: ما نسبة توافر القيم العلمية والأخلاقية في محتوى كتاب الحاسوب المُعد لطلبة الصف الثاني المتوسط الصادر من وزارة التربية العراقية/ المديرية العامة للمناهج في العام الدراسي ( 2017-2018) م؟ ولتحقيق هدفا البحث أ

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Value at risk simulation in a fixed return stock portfolio using the Monte Carlo simulation model The concept of a bond portfolio
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This research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the dec

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Ideological Polarization as a Deception Strategy in the Discourse of American Think Tanks: A Critical Discourse Analysis
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Deception is an inseparable facet of political discourse in attaining strategic political gains though compromising public opinion. However, the employment of discursive deception strategies by the policy-making institutions of think tanks has not received due attention in the literature. The current study aims at exploring how the ideologizing deception strategies are utilized by the conservative American think tank of the Washington Institute to reproduce socio-political realities and re-shape public opinion. To fulfill this task, van Dijk’s (2000) notion of ideological polarization which shows positive self-representation and negative other representation is adopted to conduct a critical discourse analysis of four Arabic texts relea

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of the Content of the Computer Textbook for the Second Intermediate Grade According to Scientific and Moral Values
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The purpose of this research is to design a list of the scientific and moral values that should be found in the content of the computer textbook for the second intermediate grade, as well as to analyze the content of the above- mentioned book by answering the following question:

 What is the percentage of availability of scientific and moral values in the content of the computer textbook for Second Intermediate grade issued by the Iraqi Ministry of Education / the general directorate of the curriculum, for the academic year (2017-2018)? 

In order to achieve the research objectives, the descriptive method (content analysis method) was adopted. The research community has been iden

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Application of GIS technique in the studies on fish assemblages in Shatt Al-Arab River, Basrah, Iraq
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The present study has examined the spatiotemporal varieties of the demographics of the Shatt Al-Arab River fishes and their relation to some ecological components. The aim is to forecast these groups in the unexplored parts of the waterway with an emphasis on environmental indices of diversity. Three sites in the river were selected as an observation and study of these species, which lasted from March 2019 to February 2020, the study dealt with factors affecting fishes, as Water Temperature (WT), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Potential Hydrogen Ion (pH), Salinity (Sal), and Transparency (Tra). Gill nets, cast nets, hooks, and hand nets were adopted to collecting fish. The results indicated that the fish population comprises 60 species represent

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
A critical reading of the artworks of Saudi artists through the theory of Erwin Panofsky
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This study deals with the subject of art criticism by using Erwin Panofsky's theory to analyze a few Saudi artists' works. The study aims to identify Panofsky's theory and provide criticism of some Saudi artworks using it. The importance of the study is that it enriches the field of art criticism in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and helps critics and artists in using Panofsky’s theory to analyze artworks.
The study sample consists of six artworks produced in 2021 by six contemporary Saudi artists. In the theoretical section, the study dealt with several topics; first, is art criticism, the second part presents Panofsky’s theory with its three stages, the final part deals with the beginning of Saudi art until present time and its

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Critical Discourse Analysis of Hate Speech
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Online communication on social networks has become a never-given-up way of expressing and sharing views and opinions within the realm of all topics on earth, and that is that! A basis essential in this is the limits at which "freedom of expression" should not be trespassed so as not to fall into the expression of "hate speech". These two ends make a base in the UN regulations pertaining to human rights: One is free to express, but not to hate by expression. Hereunder, a Critical Discourse Analysis in terms of Fairclough's dialectical-relational approach (2001) is made of Facebook posts (being made by common people, and not of official nature)  targeting Islam and Muslims. This is made so as to recognize these instances of "speech" a

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Turkish Delight Prepared With Pigments And Essential Oils Extracted From Clementine (Citrus Clementine) Peels As Natural Antioxidants
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This experiment presented essential oils by GC/MS, pigment content, and their antioxidant activities as well as sensory evaluation of delight samples. Limonene (66.88%) was the most prevalent yield. The peels of clementine had DPPH and ABT Scavenging activity. All levels of pigment extract had better scores for all sensory values and recorded acceptable scores in terms of appearance, color, aroma, and overall acceptability compared to control delight. Besides, delight samples containing 15 mg astaxanthin pigment extract showed maximum sensory scores compared to other samples and control delight. On the other hand, the product was less acceptable to the panelists compared to control in the case of the addition of 3.75 mg astaxanthin pigme

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the sustainability of the public debt in light of the volatile oil revenues in Iraq for the period (2005-2015)
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Abstract

This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi

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