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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The vocational Adjustment of workers according to the analysis of job and design ((Local Research in the technology al information and communication office in the parliament))
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Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to light on the relationship between jobs design, analysis and its reflections on reinforcing workers' vocational adjustment. The present paper aims to accomplish cognitive and applied goals, top of which, test of functional analysis ability to have effect upon workers' vocational adjustment via job design directly and indirectly owning to the virtual factor practiced by these practices on the sought organization. The problem of the present paper comes with many, the most important is the of how to bolster and back up worker's technical adjustment through good and accurate design for the job.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Principal Component Analysis Technique to Dimensionality Reduction to Multi Source
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This paper tackles with principal component analysis method (PCA ) to dimensionality reduction in the case of linear combinations to digital image processing and analysis. The PCA is statistical technique that shrinkages a multivariate data set consisting of inter-correlated variables into a data set consisting of variables that are uncorrelated linear combination, while ensuring the least possible loss of useful information. This method was applied to a group of satellite images of a certain area in the province of Basra, which represents the mouth of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in the Shatt al-Arab in the province of Basra.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة بين الطريقة التقليدية Classical Method وطريقة تحليل الطيف Spectral Analysis لإيجاد ثابت التمهيد التكيفي عند وجود قيم شاذة Outlier Values
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   In this paper , two method which deal with finding the optimal value for adaptive smoothing constant, are compared .This constant is used in adaptive Single Exponential Smoothing (ASES).

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determinants of economic growth in Arab Countries: An Empirical Study compared with South-east Asia
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The study addresses the problem of stagnation and declining economic growth rates in Arab countries since the eighties till today after the progress made by these countries in the sixties of the last century. The study reviews the e

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Risk Analysis of Projects Accordance with the Professional Project Management System: A case- Study Mansur Construction Contracting Company here
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The research aims to identify the risks faced by projects and work on the administration, such as those risks by using professional Project Management System (Project Management Professional) by identifying those risks and their impact on the objectives of the project, if they occur and to provide appropriate responses to Ha.autam search application on the draft Law Faculty port by the General Mansour Construction Contracting company has been using a method personal interview with the heads of departments and project managers in the Al-Mansour and tools descriptive and quantitative analysis as was used (likelihood and impact of risk analysis, Ai_kaoa scheme Sbb- effect, analysis of probability and impact, risk matrix (probability

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the Current Financial Crisis : Causes and Solutions (Iraqi crisis a model , based on the public budget for the fiscal year 2016)
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The research aims to analysis of the current financial crisis in Iraq through knowing its causes and then propose some solutions that help in remedy the crisis and that on the level of expenditures and revenues, and has been relying on the Federal general budget law of the Republic of Iraq for the fiscal year 2016 to obtain the necessary data in respect of the current expenditures and revenues which necessary to achieve the objective of the research , and through the research results has been reached to a set of conclusions which the most important of them that causes of the current financial crisis in Iraq , mainly belonging to increased expenditures and especially the current ones and the lack of revenues , especially non-oil o

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of efficiency in the banking performance: An applied research in a sample of Iraqi private banks
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The research stems from the problem that focuses on a number of questions. They are as follows:   What is the extent of interest in the topic of efficiency by the banks and their role in raising the efficiency of the banking business and its development?  Is the banking efficiency used in Iraqi banks clear and specific for the Iraqi banking sector? How the banking sector efficiency is measured and what are the approaches adopted in determining the banking inputs and outputs? What is the level of efficiency in the research sample of the banks and what are the causes of its decline or rise in private banks individually and in the Iraqi banking sector in general?

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Prioritized Text Detergent: Comparing Two Judgment Scales of Analytic Hierarchy Process on Prioritizing Pre-Processing Techniques on Social Media Sentiment Analysis
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Most companies use social media data for business. Sentiment analysis automatically gathers analyses and summarizes this type of data. Managing unstructured social media data is difficult. Noisy data is a challenge to sentiment analysis. Since over 50% of the sentiment analysis process is data pre-processing, processing big social media data is challenging too. If pre-processing is carried out correctly, data accuracy may improve. Also, sentiment analysis workflow is highly dependent. Because no pre-processing technique works well in all situations or with all data sources, choosing the most important ones is crucial. Prioritization is an excellent technique for choosing the most important ones. As one of many Multi-Criteria Decision Mak

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
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Evaluation Among Choices Of Water Quality Improvement By Using Some Of Total Quality Management Tools Applied Research In Baghdad Governorate Water Directorate
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  Many managers in geometrical and technical organizations prefer to deal with quantitative values ​​to choose between the available options and choose the best alternative to avoid randomization and bias in decision making. One of them Baghdad Water Department, which seeks to develop the quality of its product (drinking water) and achieve its objectives under increasing growing population and the demand for water, Some of TQM tools, especially the statistical, have this ability because there is chance to use historical data and experiment of employees in Application . Two statistical tools were applied: the nominal group technique, matrix data analysis technique as well as the brainstorming tool to search for the best o

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
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Use Generalized Pareto Survival Models to Estimation Optimal Survival Time for Myocardial Infarction Patients
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The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as

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