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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2013
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
WHAT IS DEMOCRACY? A MEDIA CONCEPT: (Socio-Cultural Linguistic Analysis)
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It is easy to talk about democracy, but it is difficult to practice. We talk about postmodernism, but difficult to be embodied in the ground. Yet, the age of democracy and modernity at the same time prompted the researcher to try to find a media concept for it. It does not mean that this concept has not yet formed. But the rooting of democracy and the approaching of states and groups towards it, made it necessary to by studied again.

The relationship between democracy and the media has made them look like one concept. The existence of one is linked to the existence of the other. The reality is only a linguistic formulation, but the social and cultural aspect is related to democracy origin

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Feminist Discourse Analysis of Writer's Gender Biases about Violence Against Women
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    The present study is concerned with the writer's ideologies towards violence against women. The study focuses on analyzing violence against women in English novel to see the extent the writers are being affected and influenced by their genders. It also focuses on showing to what extent the writer's ideologies are reflected in their works. Gender influences social groups ideologies; therefore, when a writer discusses an issue that concerns the other gender, they will be either subjective or objective depending on the degree of influence, i.e., gender has influenced their thoughts as well as behaviors. A single fact may be presented differently by different writers depending on the range of a

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Absence of the Applied Semiotic Approach in Analyzing the Media Phenomenon
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the contemporary Arab scholars deal with semiotics as an approach that helps them understand the texts, its meaning, and its structural functionalism . that’s why every now and then we find some
studies and researches using semiotics as an approach in study and comparatives, some of them even used the semiotic approach in analyzing old and new texts, while others think that semiotic holds and important place in critical approaches .
even though some of them considers semiotic just a trend of fashion this really didn’t lessen the value of semiotic as a scientific and procedural approach in literary and media studies as well as in analyzing literary and journalistic texts. for this reason it is considered as an important approa

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards
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The current research seeks to Analyze third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards for academic year (2016-2017). To do this, a list of sustainable development standards that should be included in chemistry book was designed based on the previous studies. The first version of the list consisted of (50) sub-case divided into three standards (social, economic, and environmental) which was exposed to group of experts in teaching chemistry and teaching methods. The list has modified to (43) sub-case. The researcher followed the implicit and explicit meaning in his analysis: one for recording and repetition and the other for frequency. The result showed that third intermediate chemistry book has achieved (20)

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Argumentative Elements Of Discours In The Plague For Albert Camus: Les éléments argumentatifs dans le discours de La Peste d’Albert Camus
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Argumentation is not a contemporary, yet a deep rooted intellectual phenomenon dates back to Romans and Greeks times. The argumentative elements ,the author is trying to convey to the reader, are  linguistic procedures aim at persuading and being persuaded of what is true. The present study traces, through Camus’ novel The plague, the best method to construct argumentative techniques used to express the author’s deep philosophies.

Résumé        

          L’argumentation n’est pas un phénomène intellectuel nouveau, ses origines reviennent aux savants grecs et romains. Elle est une act

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Science book second grade content analysis according to the Dimensions Of Sustainable Development
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The objective of this research is to analyze the content of science textbook at the elementary level, according to the dimensions of sustainable development for the academic year (2015-2016). To achieve this goal has been to build a list with dimensions of sustainable development to be included in science textbooks in primary school, after seeing the collection of literature and research and studies, as has been reached to the list of the dimensions of the three sustainable development and social, economic and environmental in the initial image consisted of (63) the issue of sub-divided the three-dimensional, the menu and offered a group of arbitrators and specialists in curriculum and teaching methods, and thus the menu consiste

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Selection of the initial value of the time series generating the first-order self-regression model in simulation modeAnd their impact on the accuracy of the model
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In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

                  

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Hybrid Method of Linguistic and Statistical Features for Arabic Sentiment Analysis
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          Sentiment analysis refers to the task of identifying polarity of positive and negative for particular text that yield an opinion. Arabic language has been expanded dramatically in the last decade especially with the emergence of social websites (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, etc.). Several studies addressed sentiment analysis for Arabic language using various techniques. The most efficient techniques according to the literature were the machine learning due to their capabilities to build a training model. Yet, there is still issues facing the Arabic sentiment analysis using machine learning techniques. Such issues are related to employing robust features that have the ability to discrimina

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Prophetic Speeches (Hadith) on Sciences and Scientists: Application of the "Text from Text and D+" Theory
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This study aims to apply the theory of "Text from Text and the Plus Dimension" in the analysis of the Prophetic discourse found in the section on the virtues of knowledge and scholars from Imam Sahih al-Bukhari's book. This section covers several topics, including the virtue of gathering for the sake of learning, the superiority of a scholar over a worshipper, the excellence of jurisprudence in the religion of Allah, the acquisition of knowledge through the passing away of scholars, the merit of inviting people to Allah, the continuing benefit of beneficial knowledge after a scholar's demise, the warning against seeking knowledge for purposes other than Allah, and the Prophet seeking refuge from knowledge tha

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Content Analysis of Social Studies Book at the Secondary School in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Curricula System- Joint Program) in the Light of the Cultural Intelligence Dimensions
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The study aimed at recognizing the availability of the cultural intelligence dimensions in social studies book at the high school in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia (curricula system- joint program). The study used the descriptive approach and content analysis method. As tools of the study, the study adopted a list of cultural list of indicators and dimensions that suits the secondary stage social curricula. It further adopted a content analysis form designed to analyze the social studies book in the secondary school in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The study has reached several results, the most significant results were: There is a difference in including the cultural intelligence dimensions in social studies book at high school in the kingd

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