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jeasiq-324
إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Semi-Analytical Assessment of Magneto-Hydrodynamic Nano-Fluid Flow Jeffrey- Hamel Problem
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In this paper, analyzing the non-dimensional Magnesium-hydrodynamics problem Using nanoparticles in Jeffrey-Hamel flow (JHF) has been studied. The fundamental equations for this issue are reduced to a three-order ordinary differential equation. The current project investigated the effect of the angles between the plates, Reynolds number, nanoparticles volume fraction parameter, and magnetic number on the velocity distribution by using analytical technique known as a perturbation iteration scheme (PIS). The effect of these parameters is similar in the converging and diverging channels except magnetic number that it is different in the divergent channel. Furthermore, the resulting solutions with good convergence and high accuracy for the d

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of irrigation type and method on the cost of producing dunum of wheat crop
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Abstract :  This research is concerned with studying the best type and method of  irrigation as well as the best cultivated area to reduce the cost of producing  dunums of wheat crop in Iraq , and was based on data taken from the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization About cost of wheat crop production for (12) Iraqi governorates except Kurdistan, Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Anbar) and the sample size (554) according to the cost survey carried out by the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization for 2017, The results of the research showed that there are significant statistical differences between production costs when using t

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparative study of stylistic kriging and Co - kriging Multivariate on the barley crop in Iraq
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  This paper deals  the prediction of the process of  random spatial data of two properties, the first is called  Primary variables  and the second is called secondary  variables ,   the method  that were used in the  prediction process for this type  of data is technique Co-kriging  , the method is usually used when the number of primary variables  meant to predict for one of its elements is measured in a particular location a few (because of the cost or difficulty of obtaining them) compare with secondary variable which is the number of elements  are available and  highly correlated with primary variables, as was the&nbs

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
PREPARATION AND STUDY OF THE PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF SOME COMPLEXES WITH SCHIFF BASE LIGAND FOR CEFDINIR DERIVATIVE : PREPARATION AND STUDY OF THE PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF SOME COMPLEXES WITH SCHIFF BASE LIGAND FOR CEFDINIR DERIVATIVE
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ABSTRACT

Metal (II) complexes of Co, Ni, Cu and Zn with cefdinir C14H13N5O5S2 derivative (L) were synthesized and identification by elemental analysis CHNS Uv-Vis, FTIR, TGA, metal analysis AA, magnetic susceptibility and conduct metric measurement. by analysis the ligand behaves as a bidentate. For the cobalt complex, Tetrahedral geometry shape was suggested, while other complexes that have nickel, copper and zinc ions were proposed as octahedral geometry shape. The experimental method was studied for prevention of corrosion carbon steel in 3.5% NaCl by using a novel Cefdinir derivations drugs. The results showed that metal complex was a strong corro

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The extent to which the content of social and national studies courses is included With interactive thinking maps for the stages of public education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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The present study aimed to identify the extent to which the content of social and national studies courses was included in interactive thinking maps in the educational stages in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and to achieve the goal of the study, the researcher used the descriptive and analytical approach, and the study tool used consisted of a content analysis card; Where it included a list of the types of thinking maps, where the study sample consisted of all social and national studies courses at the elementary and intermediate levels, and it is (12) books for the student in its first and second parts, and after verifying the validity and reliability of the tool, it was applied to the study sample, and the study reached conclusions, inc

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Tourism Companies Assessment via Social Media Using Sentiment Analysis
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In recent years, social media has been increasing widely and obviously as a media for users expressing their emotions and feelings through thousands of posts and comments related to tourism companies. As a consequence, it became difficult for tourists to read all the comments to determine whether these opinions are positive or negative to assess the success of a tourism company. In this paper, a modest model is proposed to assess e-tourism companies using Iraqi dialect reviews collected from Facebook. The reviews are analyzed using text mining techniques for sentiment classification. The generated sentiment words are classified into positive, negative and neutral comments by utilizing Rough Set Theory, Naïve Bayes and K-Nearest Neighbor

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting The Wet and Dry Rainy Seasons in Mosul Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
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Iraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining the Mobility of some Essential Elements in Saffron (Crocus sativus L.) by the Neutron Activation Analysis
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The main purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the concentrations of six essential metals (Na+, Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, Fe2+ and Zn2+) in saffron and a farm soil using the neutron activation analysis (NAA) as a nuclear spectrometry method. The stratified random sampling method was used here. The NAA results showed the well uptake of Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, Fe2+, and Zn2+ in saffron, which is lower than the toxicity range. Based on the contamination factor and geoaccumulation index, soil contamination levels were determined uncontaminated by Zn, moderately contaminated by Na+ and Fe2+, and strongly contamin

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Integration of international issues in Saudi social studies and citizenship books in the light of international education principles
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The study aimed to reveal the level to which the international issues are integrated into the books of Saudi public education social studies and citizenship in the light of the principles of international education, and to know the level of continuity and integration of these issues in the books, to build a range and sequence matrix of international issues through it. The study followed the descriptive and analytical method that used the content analysis card as a tool for study when the tool achieved the necessary validity and reliability characteristics. The data of this study has been processed using the SPSS statistical program according to a set of appropriate methods of descriptive and inferential statistics.

 The resu

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
COVID-19 Diagnosis Using Spectral and Statistical Analysis of Cough Recordings Based on the Combination of SVD and DWT
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Healthcare professionals routinely use audio signals, generated by the human body, to help diagnose disease or assess its progression. With new technologies, it is now possible to collect human-generated sounds, such as coughing. Audio-based machine learning technologies can be adopted for automatic analysis of collected data. Valuable and rich information can be obtained from the cough signal and extracting effective characteristics from a finite duration time interval that changes as a function of time. This article presents a proposed approach to the detection and diagnosis of COVID-19 through the processing of cough collected from patients suffering from the most common symptoms of this pandemic. The proposed method is based on adopt

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