Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.
In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete
... Show MoreThe rapid spread of novel coronavirus disease(COVID19) throughout the world without availablespecific treatment or vaccine necessitates alternativeoptions to contain the disease. Historically, childrenand pregnant women were considered high-riskpopulation of infectious diseases but rarely have beenspotlighted nowadays in the regular COVID-19updates, may be due to low global rates of incidence,morbidity, and mortality. However, complications didoccur in these subjects affected by COVID-19. Weaimed to explore the latest updates ofimmunotherapeutic perspectives of COVID-19patients in general population and some added detailsregarding pediatric and obstetrical practice.Immune system boosting strategy is one of therecently emerging issue
... Show MoreThe rapid spread of novel coronavirus disease
(COVID19) throughout the world without available
specific treatment or vaccine necessitates alternative
options to contain the disease. Historically, children
and pregnant women were considered high-risk
population of infectious diseases but rarely have been
spotlighted nowadays in the regular COVID-19
updates, may be due to low global rates of incidence,
morbidity, and mortality. However, complications did
occur in these subjects affected by COVID-19. We
aimed to explore the latest updates of
immunotherapeutic perspectives of COVID-19
patients in general population and some added details
regarding pediatric and obstetrical practice.
Immune system boo
The internet has been a source of medical information, it has been used for online medical consultation (OMC). OMC is now offered by many providers internationally with diverse models and features. In OMC, consultations and treatments are available 24/7. The covid-19 pandemic across-the-board, many people unable to go to hospital or clinic because the spread of the virus. This paper tried to answer two research questions. The first one on how the OMC can help the patients during covid-19 pandemic. A literature review was conducted to answer the first research question. The second one on how to develop system in OMC related to covid-19 pandemic. The system was developed by Visual Studio 2019 using software object-oriented approach. O
... Show MoreThe fact of having Journalism being open to people from different orientations professions, working as journalists requiring protection just to spread corruption, is one of the biggest threats faced by journalism.
Journalists noticed the spread of unprincipled journalists with no journalistic ethics amongst them, they tried to protect their profession from these corrupt outsiders who might annihilate the mighty of journalism. The principles of the journalism profession known as journalistic ethics, are one the most important formulations of the law concluded by the journalists and those concerned by the the profession, they were then published in public in order to prove their professionalism, especially for those who don’t und
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the impact of the selective model in acquiring the concepts of Kurdish grammar among female students in the eighth grade, and to achieve the goal of research, the researcher selected the experimental design with partial control and dimensional testing; the sample includes basic schools in the Chim district of Chamal/ Sulaymaniyah and randomly selected the basic school (Maha Bad) to be the field of application of the experiment and the random drawing method was chosen: two out of three sections and the number of students of the two sections is (75) students; section (C) represents the experimental group that studied the rules according to the selective model and its number is (37) students, while secti
... Show MoreIn this paper all possible regressions procedure as well as stepwise regression procedure were applied to select the best regression equation that explain the effect of human capital represented by different levels of human cadres on the productivity of the processing industries sector in Iraq by employing the data of a time series consisting of 21 years period. The statistical program SPSS was used to perform the required calculations.
Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data
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