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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Constructing fuzzy linear programming model with practical application
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This paper deals with constructing a model of fuzzy linear programming with application on fuels product of Dura- refinery , which consist of seven products that have direct effect ondaily consumption . After Building the model which consist of objective function represents the selling prices ofthe products and fuzzy productions constraints and fuzzy demand constraints addition to production requirements constraints , we used program of ( WIN QSB )  to find the optimal solution

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a mathematical model of the transportation problem under the dynamics of demand restrictions with practical application
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Abstract\

In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem  for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non-arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical testing mediation in structural equations models variables with practical application
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Abstract:
       This study is studied one method of estimation and testing parameters mediating variables in a structural equations model SEM is causal steps method, in order to identify and know the variables that have indirect effects by estimating and testing mediation variables parameters by the above way and then applied to Iraq Women Integrated Social and Health Survey (I-WISH) for year 2011 from the Ministry of planning - Central statistical organization to identify if the  variables having the effect of mediation in the model by the step causal methods by using AMOS program V.23, it
was the independent variable X represents a phenomenon studied (cultural case of the

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Estimation Methods Of GM(1,1) Model With Missing Data and Practical Application
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This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt  properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1)  is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method  (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Time of Survival Rate by Using Clayton Function for the Exponential Distribution with Practical Application
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Each phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Ho

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of some methods for estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model using the genetic algorithm with practical application
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Abstract

   Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model

    In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy aggregate production planning by using fuzzy Goal programming with practical application
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Research summarized in applying the model  of fuzzy goal programming for aggregate production planning , in General Company for hydraulic industries / plastic factory to get an optimal production plan  trying to cope with the impact that fluctuations in demand and  employs all available resources using two strategies where they are available   inventories  strategy and  the strategy of  change in the level of the workforce, these   strategies  costs are usually imprecise/fuzzy. The plant administration trying to minimize total production costs, minimize carrying costs and minimize changes in labour levels. depending on the gained data from th

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Aggregate production planning using linear programming with practical application
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Abstract :

The study aims at building a mathematical model for the aggregate production planning for Baghdad soft drinks company. The study is based on a set of aggregate planning strategies (Control of working hours, storage level control strategy) for the purpose of exploiting the resources and productive capacities available in an optimal manner and minimizing production costs by using (Matlab) program. The most important finding of the research is the importance of exploiting during the available time of production capacity. In the months when the demand is less than the production capacity available for investment. In the subsequent months when the demand exceeds the available energy and to minimize the use of overti

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Quadratic Form Ratio Multiple Test to Estimate Linear Regression Model Parameters in Big Data with Application: Child Labor in Iraq
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              The current paper proposes a new estimator for the linear regression model parameters under Big Data circumstances.  From the diversity of Big Data variables comes many challenges that  can be interesting to the  researchers who try their best to find new and novel methods to estimate the parameters of linear regression model. Data has been collected by Central Statistical Organization IRAQ, and the child labor in Iraq has been chosen as data. Child labor is the most vital phenomena that both society and education are suffering from and it affects the future of our next generation. Two methods have been selected to estimate the parameter

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