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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Docking Study of Naringin Binding with COVID-19 Main Protease Enzyme
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The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has recently emerged as a human pathogen caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019. Upon study, it has been used molecular docking to binding affinity between COVID-19 protease enzyme and flavonoids with evaluations based on docking scores calculated by AutoDock Vina. Results showed that naringin suppressed COVID-19 protease, as it has the highest binding value than other flavonoids including quercetin, hesperetin, garcina and naringenin. An important finding in this study is that naringin with neighboring poly hydroxyl groups can serve as inhibitors of COVID-19 protease bind to the S pocket of protein, it is shown that residues His163, Glu166, Asn142, His41and

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 26 2023
Journal Name
International Conference On Scientific Research & Innovation (icsri 2022)
Age and gender profile of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) in Quarantine Center in Baghdad, Iraq
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 26 2023
Journal Name
International Conference On Scientific Research & Innovation (icsri 2022)
Age and gender profile of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) in Quarantine Center in Baghdad, Iraq
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Acute Appendicitis and Multisystemic Inflammatory Syndrome due to COVID-19: a Case Report and Literature Review
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The prevalence of gastrointestinal symptoms of COVID-19 is variable with different types of presentations. Some of them many present with manifestations mimicking surgical emergencies. Yet, the pathophysiology of acute abdomen in the context of COVID-19 remains unclear. We present a case of a previously healthy child who presented with acute appendicitis with multisystemic inflammatory syndrome. We also highlight the necessity of considering the gastrointestinal symptoms of COVID-19 infection in pediatric patients in order to avoid misdiagnosis and further complications.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Immunological aspects of Alpha 1 Antitrypsin in COVID-19 infection among the Populace and Pregnant Women: Alpha 1 Antitrypsin and COVID-19
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Since the COVID-19 pandemic alarm was made by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-coronavirus (CoV) 2, several institutions and agencies have pursued to clarify the viral virulence and infectivity. The fast propagation of this virus leads to an unprecedented rise in the number of cases worldwide. COVID-19 virus is exceptionally contagious that spreads through droplets, respiratory secretions, and direct contact. The enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus has a specific envelop region called (S) region encoding (S protein) that specifically binds to the host cell receptor. Viral infection requires receptors' participation on the host cell membrane's surface, a  key- step for the viral invasion of susceptible cells.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Iraqi Journalistic Treatment of COVID-19 pandemic
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This research aims to investigate the approaches adopted by Iraqi newspapers in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Employing a descriptive methodology and survey technique, the study conducts content analysis on articles published in three prominent newspapers: Al-Sabah, Al-Mada, and Tareeq Al-Shaab. A multi-stage sampling method was employed, encompassing 260 issues of the aforementioned newspapers. Data collection involved the use of a content analysis questionnaire, with the "How it was said?" method utilized to determine analysis categories.
The results showed that Al-Sabah newspaper adopted a positive approach in addressing COVID-19-related topics, while Al-Mada newspaper remained neutral, and Tare

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Using the general budget for the year 2019 to achieve sustainable development in Iraq
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The public budget is on the same time an art and a science .As an accountable science it seeks balance between public income and public expenditure for an accountable year. And as an accountable art it seeks to achieve economic balance by distributing equitable income in order to reach sustainable development .This is the optimal use of all natural and human resources to address scarcity of natural resources facing the increase need of human resources by spending on education, health, environment, housing, agriculture and industry to achieve social justice for the current generation and future generations. Since the first budget in Iraq on 1921 an accounting budget, is balancing the sections and items has been adopted and since the publi

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 08 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Building a Management System to Control the Construction Claims in Iraq
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The paper deals with claims in construction projects in Iraq and studies their types, causes, impacts, resolution methods and then proposes a management system to control the impacts of claims. Two parts have been done to achieve the research objective (theoretical part and practical part). The findings showed that the main types of the claims are extra work claims, different site condition claims, delay claims and the main causes of the claims are variation of the orders, design errors and omission, delay in payments by owner, variation in quantities and scheduling errors. The claims have bad impacts on the cost by increasing (10% to 25%) and also on the duration of the project by increasing from (25% to 50%).The negotiation is the main

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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