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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological Stress As A Result of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Abstract

The pressures of life have become a tangible phenomenon in all societies in varying degrees. This disparity determines several factors, including the nature of societies, the level of their urbanization, the intensity of interaction, the intensity of conflict, and the increasing rate of change in those societies. many people name The modern era in which we live the “era of pressures", where one of the most important of these changes is the “new Coronavirus 19-COVID”, which has spread widely throughout the world, as the pandemic, has affected all aspects of daily life, including the educational and academic process, academic activities have been suspended in universities, which caused sudden change

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The Impact of COVID-19 on Healthy Related Issues, A structured Review
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Coronavirus: (COVID-19) is a recently discovered viral disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus.

The majority of patients with corona-virus infections will have a mild-moderate respiratory disease that recovers without special care. Most often, the elderly, and others with chronic medical conditions such as asthma, coronary disease, respiratory illness, and malignancy are seriously ill.

    COVID-19 is spread mostly by salivary droplets or nasal secretions when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

    COVID-19 causes severe acute respiratory illness (SARS-COV-2). The first incidence was recorded in Wuhan, China, in 2019.  Since then it spreads leading to a pandemic.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Some Estimator Methods of Linear Regression Model With Auto-Correlated Errors With Application Data for the Wheat in Iraq
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This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 07 2019
Journal Name
Construction Innovation
A hybrid conceptual model for BIM in FM
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Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a hybrid conceptual model for building information modelling (BIM) adoption in facilities management (FM) through the integration of the technology task fit (TTF) and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) theories. The study also aims to identify the influence factors of BIM adoption and usage in FM and identify gaps in the existing literature and to provide a holistic picture of recent research in technology acceptance and adoption in the construction industry and FM sector.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 26 2023
Journal Name
Wasit Journal Of Pure Sciences
Covid-19 Prediction using Machine Learning Methods: An Article Review
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The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated new methods for controlling the spread of the virus, and machine learning (ML) holds promise in this regard. Our study aims to explore the latest ML algorithms utilized for COVID-19 prediction, with a focus on their potential to optimize decision-making and resource allocation during peak periods of the pandemic. Our review stands out from others as it concentrates primarily on ML methods for disease prediction.To conduct this scoping review, we performed a Google Scholar literature search using "COVID-19," "prediction," and "machine learning" as keywords, with a custom range from 2020 to 2022. Of the 99 articles that were screened for eligibility, we selected 20 for the final review.Our system

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Evaluation Study of Patients Infected with Chronic Hepatitis C in Iraq
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Background: ;Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease. Approximately 85% of patients acutely infected with HCV progress to chronic liver disease with persistence of HCV-RNA for more than 6 months Among patients with chronic HCV infection , 15-20% progress to end-stage liver disease main transmission methods of the virus is by : blood and blood products ; sharing needles and acupuncture .Objective: To evaluate Iraqi patients infected with chronic HCV, including their treatment, and factors that affect their response to treatment .Methods :This study was performed at Gastroenterology and Hepatology hospital in Baghdad from January 2011 to March 2012.The study enrolled 90 patients with HCV Antibody positive (Ab +ve)

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 04 2022
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading
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Abstract<p>This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The level of Mental Mindfulness of College of Education Students at Umm Al-Qura University in the light of Corona Pandemic
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The aim of this research is to identify the level of mental mindfulness among female students of the College of Education at Umm Al-Qura University, as well as to identify the statistically significant differences in the level of mental mindfulness according to academic level, specialization, and academic achievement. A mental mindfulness scale was designed to cover five dimensions. The study employed the analytic descriptive approach applied to a random sample of (217) female students from various academic specializations. The findings indicated that the level of mental mindfulness was average among female students. Statistically significant differences were attributable to the academic level, academic specializations, and academic achi

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