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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled in Iraqi ports An applied study in the general company of Iraqi ports
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Time series is an important statistical method adopted in the analysis of phenomena, practices, and events in all areas during specific time periods and predict future values ​​contribute to give a rough estimate of the status of the study, so the study aimed to adopt the ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled and achieved in four ports (Umm Qasr Port, Khor Al Zubair Port, Abu Flus Port, and Maqal Port(, Monthly data on the volume of cargo handled for the years (2006-2018) were collected (156) observations. The study found that the most efficient model is ARIMA (1,1,1).

The volume of go

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Health Anxiety Related to Coronavirus (Covid 19) and Its Relationship to Health Behavior among Baghdad University Employees
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The aim of the research is to identify the relationship between health anxiety associated with Coronavirus (Covid 19) and its relationship to health behavior among Baghdad University employees, as well as to identify the differences in health anxiety and health behavior according to the variables (gender, occupation, and age). To achieve the objectives of the research, a scale was designed to measure the health anxiety in addition to the adoption of the health behavior scale prepared by (Renner & Schwarzer, 2005). The two scales were applied to a sample of (277) academics and (206) employees, while the number of students was (667). The sample was chosen by electronic application from a number of colleges at Al-Jadiriyah Complex. Afte

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
COVID-19 Diagnosis System using SimpNet Deep Model
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After the outbreak of COVID-19, immediately it converted from epidemic to pandemic. Radiologic images of CT and X-ray have been widely used to detect COVID-19 disease through observing infrahilar opacity in the lungs. Deep learning has gained popularity in diagnosing many health diseases including COVID-19 and its rapid spreading necessitates the adoption of deep learning in identifying COVID-19 cases. In this study, a deep learning model, based on some principles has been proposed for automatic detection of COVID-19 from X-ray images. The SimpNet architecture has been adopted in our study and trained with X-ray images. The model was evaluated on both binary (COVID-19 and No-findings) classification and multi-class (COVID-19, No-findings

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cluster Analysis of Biochemical Markers as Predictor of COVID-19 Severity
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Numerous blood biomarkers are altered in COVID-19 patients; however, no early biochemical markers are currently being used in clinical practice to predict COVID-19 severity. COVID-19, the most recent pandemic, is caused by the SRS-CoV-2 coronavirus.  The study was aimed to identify patient groups with a high and low risk of developing COVID-19 using a cluster analysis of several biomarkers. 137 women with confirmed SARS CoV-2 RNA testing were collected and analyzed for biochemical profiles. Two-dimensional automated hierarchy clustering of all biomarkers was applied, and patients were sorted into classes. Biochemistry marker variations (Ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase LDH, D-dimer, and C- reactive protein CRP) have split COVID-19 patien

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Assessing the Activity of Renin and GST in the Serum of Ladies Suffering from Polycystic Ovary Syndrome and COVID-19 to Predict the Danger of Cardiac Disease
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The coronavirus-pandemic has a major impact on women's-mental and physical-health. Polycystic-ovary-syndrome (PCOS) has a high-predisposition to many cardiometabolic-risk factors that increase susceptibility to severe complications of COVID-19 and also exhibit an increased likelihood of subfertility. The study includes the extent of the effect of COVID-19-virus on renin-levels, glutathione-s-transferase-activity and other biochemical parameters in PCOS-women. The study included 120 samples of ladies that involved: 80 PCOS-patients, and 40 healthy-ladies. Both main groups were divided into subgroups based on COVID-19 infected or not. Blood-samples were collected from PCOS-patients in Kamal-Al-Samara Hospital, at the period between Decembe

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
COVID-19 Translated Messages: Arabic Speakers’ Acceptability of Lexical Choices
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Worldwide, there is an increased reliance on COVID-19-related health messages to curb the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, it is vital to provide a well-prepared and authentic translation of English-language messages to reach culturally and linguistically diverse audiences. However, few studies, if any, focus on how non-English-speaking readers receive and linguistically accept the lexical choices in the messages translated into their language. The present study tested a sample of translated Arabic COVID-19-related texts that were obtained from the World Health Organization and Australian New South Wales Health websites. This study investigated to that extent Arabic readers would receive translated COVID-19 health messages and whether the t

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 13 2022
Journal Name
وقائع المؤتمر العلمي الدولي التاسع / المجلة الامريكية الدولية للعلوم الانسانية والاجتماعية
The Relationship between Job Satisfaction and Organizational Loyalty among Baghdad University Employees in light of Covid- 19 A Descriptive Analytical Study (University of Baghdad as a model)
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The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Euro Dinar Trading Analysis Using WARIMA Hybrid Model
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The rise in the general level of prices in Iraq makes the local commodity less able to compete with other commodities, which leads to an increase in the amount of imports and a decrease in the amount of exports, since it raises demand for foreign currencies while decreasing demand for the local currency, which leads to a decrease in the exchange rate of the local currency in exchange for an increase in the exchange rate of currencies. This is one of the most important factors affecting the determination of the exchange rate and its fluctuations. This research deals with the currency of the European Euro and its impact against the Iraqi dinar. To make an accurate prediction for any process, modern methods can be used through which

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Speech Acts Analysis of English COVID-19 News Headlines: مثنى نجيب المرسومي, جمعة قادر حسين
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News headlines are key elements in spreading news. They are unique texts written in a special language which enables readers understand the overall nature and importance of the topic. However, this special language causes difficulty for readers in understanding the headline. To illuminate this difficulty, it is argued that a pragmatic analysis from a speech act theory perspective is a plausible tool for a headline analysis. The main objective of the study is to pragmatically analyze the most frequently employed types of speech acts in the news headlines covering COVID-19 in Aljazeera English website. To this end, Bach and Harnish's (1979) Taxonomy of Speech Acts has been adopted to analyze the data. Thirty headlines have been collected f

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