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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index
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Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choose the best model for building life tables in Iraq
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Demography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 14 2024
Journal Name
Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal
Satisfaction of women with telehealth services during COVID-19 paves the way for wider implementation
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Background: Although underdeveloped in Iraq, telehealth was one tool used to continue health service provision during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To assess women’s experiences and satisfaction with gynaecological and obstetric telehealth services in Iraq during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Free telehealth services were provided by 4 obstetrician-gynaecologists associated with private clinics in 2020–2021. All patients who accessed the services between June 2020 and February 2021 were invited to complete a postconsultation survey on their experience and satisfaction with services. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression conducted using SPSS version 25. Results: A total of 151 (30.2%) women re

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Molecular Detection of Porphyromonas gingivalis in COVID-19 Patients
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Background:SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused a global pandemic that continues to negatively impact human health. A large group of microbial domains including bacteria co-evolved and interacted in complex molecular pathogenesis along with SARS-CoV-2. Evidence suggests that periodontal disease bacteria are involved in COVID-19, and are associated with chronic inflammatory systemic diseases. This study was performed to investigate the association between bacterial loads of Porphyromonas gingivalis and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Fifty patients with confirmed COVID-19 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction, their age ranges between 20-76 years, and 35 healthy volunteers (matched accordingly with age and sex to th

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
F1000research
Inflammatory markers in patients who presented with acute coronary syndrome and history of COVID-19 infection: a cross-sectional study
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Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak, the number of patients who have developed acute coronary syndromes (ACS) has soared rapidly, cardiovascular disease and mortality are influenced by the elevated inflammatory biomarkers. The aim of this study is to compare inflammatory markers between patients with ACS who hadn’t previously had COVID-19 and those who’d be infected within the preceding three months; as well as, evaluating the effect of statins on inflammatory biomarkers.

Methods: This is a comparative cross-sectional study of 42 patients who presented with ACS and had previously had COVID-19 and 48 patient who had never had CO

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 15 2022
Journal Name
Revis Bionatura
ND2 Gene Sequencing of Sub fertile Patients Recovered from COVID-19 in Association with Toxoplasmosis
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A total of (90) blood samples were collected from male patients infected with Toxoplasmosis who recovered from COVID- 19 and attended Kamal Alsamiraai Hospital from 15 January to 15 September 2021. We measured anti-Toxoplasma antibodies (IgG and IgM) detected by ELISA, whereas Anti-COVID-19 antibodies (IgG and IgM) were estimated using Elisa and Afilias. The semen characteristics were also studied among fertile, healthy individuals (control group) and sub-fertile patients. Results showed that the mean sperm count was high among the control group (40.5±1.3x 106/ml) compared with that of the sub-fertile patients (10.3±1.75 and 8.8±1.9 x 106/ml for oligozoospermia, and oligoasthenozoospermia respectively), and it was the highest (44.7±1.4

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmacology And Pharmacotherapeutics
Pharmaceutical Frontliners: Community Pharmacists’ Contribution to Managing Medication Needs During a Health Crisis— The COVID-19 Era as an Example
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Community pharmacists faced more complex challenges in meeting patients’ medication needs during the pandemic than previously reported in the literature. Objectives To explore the perception and abilities of community pharmacists in managing patients’ needs in terms of medication dispensing during the pandemic, and to examine its effect on improving the patients’ situations. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional study design, validated by 30 experts, was conducted using an electronic survey (Google Form) to assess the effect of the dispensing practice of Iraqi community pharmacists on the patient’s clinical outcomes during the pandemic. The survey was distributed on professional pharmacist’s social media platforms from December

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Performance evolution of a hybrid thermal solar air conditioning system and compare it with a traditional system according to Iraq weather
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In a hybrid cooling solar thermal systems , a solar collector is used to convert solar energy into heat energy in order to super heat the refrigerant leaving the compressor, and this process helps in the transformation of refrigerant state from gaseous state to the liquid state in upper two-thirds of the condenser instead of the lower two-thirds such as in the traditional air-conditioning systems and this will reduce the energy needed to run the process of cooling .In this research two systems with a capacity of 2 tons each were used, a hybrid air-conditioning system with an evacuated tubes solar collector and a traditional air-conditioning system . The refrigerant of each type was R22.The comparison was in the amou

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Mining categorical Covid-19 data using chi-square and logistic regression algorithms
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Generalization of t-Practical Numbers
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This paper generalizes and improves the results of Margenstren, by proving that the number of -practical numbers  which is defined by   has a lower bound in terms of . This bound is more sharper than Mangenstern bound when  Further general results are given for the existence of -practical numbers, by proving that the interval contains a -practical for all

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