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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Generalization of t-Practical Numbers
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This paper generalizes and improves the results of Margenstren, by proving that the number of -practical numbers  which is defined by   has a lower bound in terms of . This bound is more sharper than Mangenstern bound when  Further general results are given for the existence of -practical numbers, by proving that the interval contains a -practical for all

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Effect of Individuals Asymptomatic (Carrier) on The Dynamical Behavior Of a COVID-19 Virus
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     In this paper, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) model is proposed and investigated. In fact, the pandemic spread through a close contact between infected people and other people but sometimes the infected people could show two cases; the first is symptomatic and the other is asymptomatic (carrier) as the source of the risk. The outbreak of Covid-19 virus is described by a mathematical model dividing the population into four classes. The first class represents the susceptible people who are unaware of the disease. The second class refers to the susceptible people who are aware of the epidemic by media coverage. The third class is the carrier individuals (asymptomatic) and the fourth class represents the infected ind

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choose the best model for building life tables in Iraq
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Demography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Impact of the Selective Model on the Acquisition of Kurdish Grammar Concepts among Female Students in the Eighth Grade
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This research aims to identify the impact of the selective model in acquiring the concepts of Kurdish grammar among female students in the eighth grade, and to achieve the goal of research, the researcher selected the experimental design with partial control  and dimensional testing; the sample includes basic schools in the Chim district of Chamal/ Sulaymaniyah and randomly selected the basic school (Maha Bad) to be the field of application of the experiment and the random drawing method was chosen: two out of three sections and the number of students of the two sections is (75) students; section (C) represents the experimental group that studied the rules according to the selective model and its number is (37) students, while secti

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 19 2024
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
Serum Levels of Fetuin-A, Ischemia-modified Albumin (IMA), and Ferritin in Hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. A Case-control Study
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Objective: To measure the serum levels of Fetuin-A, ischemia-modified albumin (IMA), and ferritin in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19in Baghdad, Iraq. Moreover, to determine these biomarkers' cut-off valuesthat differentiate between severely ill patients and control subjects. Methods: This case-control study was done from 15 September to the end of December 2021 and involved a review of the files and collectionof blood samples from patients (n=45, group1) hospitalized in COVID-19 treatment centersbecause of severe symptoms compared tohealthy subjects as controls (n=44, group2). Results: Fetuin-A serum levels were not statistically different between patients and controls. In contrast, IMA and ferritin levels were significan

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the financial failure of Islamic banks using the Altman model, ---- springate model and ---- Sherrod model / an analytical study in Islamic banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Performance evolution of a hybrid thermal solar air conditioning system and compare it with a traditional system according to Iraq weather
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In a hybrid cooling solar thermal systems , a solar collector is used to convert solar energy into heat energy in order to super heat the refrigerant leaving the compressor, and this process helps in the transformation of refrigerant state from gaseous state to the liquid state in upper two-thirds of the condenser instead of the lower two-thirds such as in the traditional air-conditioning systems and this will reduce the energy needed to run the process of cooling .In this research two systems with a capacity of 2 tons each were used, a hybrid air-conditioning system with an evacuated tubes solar collector and a traditional air-conditioning system . The refrigerant of each type was R22.The comparison was in the amou

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Molecular Detection of Porphyromonas gingivalis in COVID-19 Patients
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Background:SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused a global pandemic that continues to negatively impact human health. A large group of microbial domains including bacteria co-evolved and interacted in complex molecular pathogenesis along with SARS-CoV-2. Evidence suggests that periodontal disease bacteria are involved in COVID-19, and are associated with chronic inflammatory systemic diseases. This study was performed to investigate the association between bacterial loads of Porphyromonas gingivalis and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Fifty patients with confirmed COVID-19 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction, their age ranges between 20-76 years, and 35 healthy volunteers (matched accordingly with age and sex to th

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 14 2024
Journal Name
Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal
Satisfaction of women with telehealth services during COVID-19 paves the way for wider implementation
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Background: Although underdeveloped in Iraq, telehealth was one tool used to continue health service provision during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To assess women’s experiences and satisfaction with gynaecological and obstetric telehealth services in Iraq during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Free telehealth services were provided by 4 obstetrician-gynaecologists associated with private clinics in 2020–2021. All patients who accessed the services between June 2020 and February 2021 were invited to complete a postconsultation survey on their experience and satisfaction with services. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression conducted using SPSS version 25. Results: A total of 151 (30.2%) women re

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