Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
This research aims to provide insight into the Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression model (SARQR), which is more general than the Spatial Autoregressive model (SAR) and Quantile Regression model (QR) by integrating aspects of both. Since Bayesian approaches may produce reliable estimates of parameter and overcome the problems that standard estimating techniques, hence, in this model (SARQR), they were used to estimate the parameters. Bayesian inference was carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Several criteria were used in comparison, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R^2). The application was devoted on dataset of poverty rates acro
... Show MoreDemography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making
... Show Moreبعد مرور عام واكثر على ظهور فيروس كورونا والعالم يواجه تسونامي تلك الجائحة التي تكاد تعصف بالوجود البشري برمته لذا اخذت البشرية على عاتقها مواصلة الجهود والابحاث للوصول الى علاج طبي يتم من خلاله مواجهة هذا الفيروس او التقليل من آثاره التي تهدد الحياة البشرية بالموت المباشر دون الاصابة، مما نتج عن تلك الجهود مجموعة من اللقاحات التي تبنتها الشركات العالمية المسؤولة الا ان الضرورة القصوى التي نتجت عنها تلك الل
... Show MoreThis paper generalizes and improves the results of Margenstren, by proving that the number of -practical numbers which is defined by has a lower bound in terms of . This bound is more sharper than Mangenstern bound when Further general results are given for the existence of -practical numbers, by proving that the interval contains a -practical for all
Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A
... Show MoreObjective: To measure the serum levels of Fetuin-A, ischemia-modified albumin (IMA), and ferritin in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19in Baghdad, Iraq. Moreover, to determine these biomarkers' cut-off valuesthat differentiate between severely ill patients and control subjects. Methods: This case-control study was done from 15 September to the end of December 2021 and involved a review of the files and collectionof blood samples from patients (n=45, group1) hospitalized in COVID-19 treatment centersbecause of severe symptoms compared tohealthy subjects as controls (n=44, group2). Results: Fetuin-A serum levels were not statistically different between patients and controls. In contrast, IMA and ferritin levels were significan
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In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t
... Show MoreBackground: Although underdeveloped in Iraq, telehealth was one tool used to continue health service provision during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To assess women’s experiences and satisfaction with gynaecological and obstetric telehealth services in Iraq during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Free telehealth services were provided by 4 obstetrician-gynaecologists associated with private clinics in 2020–2021. All patients who accessed the services between June 2020 and February 2021 were invited to complete a postconsultation survey on their experience and satisfaction with services. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression conducted using SPSS version 25. Results: A total of 151 (30.2%) women re
... Show MoreBackground:SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused a global pandemic that continues to negatively impact human health. A large group of microbial domains including bacteria co-evolved and interacted in complex molecular pathogenesis along with SARS-CoV-2. Evidence suggests that periodontal disease bacteria are involved in COVID-19, and are associated with chronic inflammatory systemic diseases. This study was performed to investigate the association between bacterial loads of Porphyromonas gingivalis and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Fifty patients with confirmed COVID-19 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction, their age ranges between 20-76 years, and 35 healthy volunteers (matched accordingly with age and sex to th
... Show MoreCommunity pharmacists faced more complex challenges in meeting patients’ medication needs during the pandemic than previously reported in the literature. Objectives To explore the perception and abilities of community pharmacists in managing patients’ needs in terms of medication dispensing during the pandemic, and to examine its effect on improving the patients’ situations. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional study design, validated by 30 experts, was conducted using an electronic survey (Google Form) to assess the effect of the dispensing practice of Iraqi community pharmacists on the patient’s clinical outcomes during the pandemic. The survey was distributed on professional pharmacist’s social media platforms from December
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