Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar
... Show MoreDemography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making
... Show MoreThe adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the impact of the selective model in acquiring the concepts of Kurdish grammar among female students in the eighth grade, and to achieve the goal of research, the researcher selected the experimental design with partial control and dimensional testing; the sample includes basic schools in the Chim district of Chamal/ Sulaymaniyah and randomly selected the basic school (Maha Bad) to be the field of application of the experiment and the random drawing method was chosen: two out of three sections and the number of students of the two sections is (75) students; section (C) represents the experimental group that studied the rules according to the selective model and its number is (37) students, while secti
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In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t
... Show MoreProfit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A
... Show MoreBackground: Although underdeveloped in Iraq, telehealth was one tool used to continue health service provision during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To assess women’s experiences and satisfaction with gynaecological and obstetric telehealth services in Iraq during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Free telehealth services were provided by 4 obstetrician-gynaecologists associated with private clinics in 2020–2021. All patients who accessed the services between June 2020 and February 2021 were invited to complete a postconsultation survey on their experience and satisfaction with services. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression conducted using SPSS version 25. Results: A total of 151 (30.2%) women re
... Show MoreThis paper generalizes and improves the results of Margenstren, by proving that the number of -practical numbers which is defined by has a lower bound in terms of . This bound is more sharper than Mangenstern bound when Further general results are given for the existence of -practical numbers, by proving that the interval contains a -practical for all
بعد مرور عام واكثر على ظهور فيروس كورونا والعالم يواجه تسونامي تلك الجائحة التي تكاد تعصف بالوجود البشري برمته لذا اخذت البشرية على عاتقها مواصلة الجهود والابحاث للوصول الى علاج طبي يتم من خلاله مواجهة هذا الفيروس او التقليل من آثاره التي تهدد الحياة البشرية بالموت المباشر دون الاصابة، مما نتج عن تلك الجهود مجموعة من اللقاحات التي تبنتها الشركات العالمية المسؤولة الا ان الضرورة القصوى التي نتجت عنها تلك الل
... Show MoreBackground:SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused a global pandemic that continues to negatively impact human health. A large group of microbial domains including bacteria co-evolved and interacted in complex molecular pathogenesis along with SARS-CoV-2. Evidence suggests that periodontal disease bacteria are involved in COVID-19, and are associated with chronic inflammatory systemic diseases. This study was performed to investigate the association between bacterial loads of Porphyromonas gingivalis and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Fifty patients with confirmed COVID-19 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction, their age ranges between 20-76 years, and 35 healthy volunteers (matched accordingly with age and sex to th
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