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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Models for long range forecast to the dust storms
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In this research ,we will study the phenomenon of dust storms for all types
(Suspended dust , rising dust , dust storm) , and its relationship with some climate
variables (Temperature , rainfall ,wind speed , Relative humidity ) through
regression models to three different locations ( Kirkuk , Rutba , Diwaniya ) almost
covering Iraq area for the period (1981 – 2012) . Time series has been addressing the
phenomenon of storms and climate variables for the time period under study to
attain the best models for long range forcast to the dust storms.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Growth of diabetic children in post conflict Baghdad, Iraq
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Background: previously type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) was listed among the causes of severing growth retardation. Iraq was exposed to wars and conflicts that affect health services which in turn affect the glycemic state of diabetic patients.
Objective: To report on the growth of diabetic children in post-conflict Iraq.
Methods: A total of 100 children with T1DM were included in the study. They were attending the consultancy clinic in Children Welfare Teaching Hospital for the period from 1st of Feb to 30th of May 2017. Weight and height were measured. The growth indices at diagnosis were taken from a case file.
Results: A total of 100 children with T1DM included in this study. Their age was 9.3 ± 3.2 years with a male to fema

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Effect of Individuals Asymptomatic (Carrier) on The Dynamical Behavior Of a COVID-19 Virus
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     In this paper, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) model is proposed and investigated. In fact, the pandemic spread through a close contact between infected people and other people but sometimes the infected people could show two cases; the first is symptomatic and the other is asymptomatic (carrier) as the source of the risk. The outbreak of Covid-19 virus is described by a mathematical model dividing the population into four classes. The first class represents the susceptible people who are unaware of the disease. The second class refers to the susceptible people who are aware of the epidemic by media coverage. The third class is the carrier individuals (asymptomatic) and the fourth class represents the infected ind

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical Negative Results
Phytocompound of pure thymol inhibit COVID-19 by binding to ACE2 receptor: In silico approach
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The level of Mental Mindfulness of College of Education Students at Umm Al-Qura University in the light of Corona Pandemic
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The aim of this research is to identify the level of mental mindfulness among female students of the College of Education at Umm Al-Qura University, as well as to identify the statistically significant differences in the level of mental mindfulness according to academic level, specialization, and academic achievement. A mental mindfulness scale was designed to cover five dimensions. The study employed the analytic descriptive approach applied to a random sample of (217) female students from various academic specializations. The findings indicated that the level of mental mindfulness was average among female students. Statistically significant differences were attributable to the academic level, academic specializations, and academic achi

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index
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Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 12 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
A Pharmacoeconomics Study for Anticoagulants used for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf city –Iraq(Conference Paper )#
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Abstract

Background: The novel coronavirus 2 (SARS?CoV?2) pandemic is a pulmonary disease, which leads to cardiac, hematologic, and renal complications. Anticoagulants are used for COVID-19 infected patients because the infection increases the risk of thrombosis. The world health organization (WHO), recommend prophylaxis dose of anticoagulants: (Enoxaparin or unfractionated Heparin for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 disease. This has created an urgent need to identify effective medications for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. The value of COVID-19 treatments is affected by cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to inform relative value and how to best maximize social welfare through eviden

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 12 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn: 1683 - 3597 , E-issn : 2521 - 3512)
A Pharmacoeconomics Study for Anticoagulants used for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf city –Iraq(Conference Paper )#
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Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus 2 (SARS?CoV?2) pandemic is a pulmonary disease, which leads to cardiac, hematologic, and renal complications. Anticoagulants are used for COVID-19 infected patients because the infection increases the risk of thrombosis. The world health organization (WHO), recommend prophylaxis dose of anticoagulants: (Enoxaparin or unfractionated Heparin for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 disease. This has created an urgent need to identify effective medications for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. The value of COVID-19 treatments is affected by cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to inform relative value and how to best maximize social welfare through evidence-based pricing decisions. O

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Scopus (5)
Crossref (3)
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