Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ
... Show MoreObjective: The study the association of procalcitonin (PCT) and c-reactive protein (CRP) levels in COVID-19 patients and it's role as a guide in progress and management of those patients. Methodology: This cross-sectional study analyzed 200 CIOVID-19 patients in a single privet center in Baghdad, Iraq from January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022. Demographic data like age, sex, and clinical symptoms were recorded. High sensitivity CRP and PCT in the serum were measured via dry fluorescence immunoassay (Lansionbio-China). Results: Out of 200 patients, 50 had moderate Covid and 150 had severe disease. Mean serum PCT levels was 0.039±0.05 ng/mL in the moderate group (range 0.011-0.067) and 0.43±0.21 ng/mL in the severe group (range 0.21
... Show MoreBackground: Asthma is one of the most common chronic respiratory diseases in the world, standing for the most frequent cause for hospitalization and emergency cases. Respiratory viruses are the most triggering cause. Aim: To assess the role of viral infections, especially COVID-19, in the pathogenesis of asthma initiation and exacerbations. Method: Electronic search was done for the manuscripts focusing on asthma as a risk factor for complications after COVID-19 infection. The outcomes were titles, materials, methods and classified studies related or not related to the review study. Three hundred publications were identified and only ten studies were selected for analysis. Seven studies were review, one retrospective, one longitudin
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: Coronavirus current pandemic (COVID-19) is the striking subject worldwide hitting countries in an unexplained non-universal pattern. Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine was an adopted recent justification depending on its non-specific immune activation properties. Still the problem of post-vaccine short duration of protection needs to be solved. The same protective mechanism was identified in active or latent tuberculosis (TB). For each single patient of active TB, there are about nine cases of asymptomatic latent TB apparently normal individuals living within the community without restrictions carrying benefits of immune activation and involved in re-infection cycles in an excellent example of repeated immunity tr
... Show MoreAtheists have spread in the modern era, so that atheism has become a bad phenomenon in the world in general and in Islamic societies in particular, so the research aims to study the individual and social effects left by atheism on the atheists themselves, and the research included multiple axes: atheism linguistically and idiomatically, atheism in the Qur’an Noble and Modern (and Contemporary) Atheism Statistics: and the reasons for atheism: Studying the phenomenon of atheism in Iraq as a model, then studying the effects of atheism: on the individual first, then atheism and its impact on society, then the conclusion, recommendations, sources and references
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the infection escalation around the globe encourage the implementation of the global protocol for standard care patients aiming to cease the infection spread. Evaluating the potency of these therapy courses has drawn particular attention in health practice. This observational study aimed to assess the efficacy of Remdesivir and Favipiravir drugs compared to the standard care patients in COVID-19 confirmed patients. One hundred twenty-seven patients showed the disease at different stages, and one hundred and fifty patients received only standard care as a control group were included in this study. Patients under the Remdesivir therapy protocol were (62.20%); meanwhile, there (30.71
... Show MoreFuzzy numbers are used in various fields such as fuzzy process methods, decision control theory, problems involving decision making, and systematic reasoning. Fuzzy systems, including fuzzy set theory. In this paper, pentagonal fuzzy variables (PFV) are used to formulate linear programming problems (LPP). Here, we will concentrate on an approach to addressing these issues that uses the simplex technique (SM). Linear programming problems (LPP) and linear programming problems (LPP) with pentagonal fuzzy numbers (PFN) are the two basic categories into which we divide these issues. The focus of this paper is to find the optimal solution (OS) for LPP with PFN on the objective function (OF) and right-hand side. New ranking f
... Show MoreOne of the most serious health disasters in recent memory is the COVID-19 epidemic. Several restriction rules have been forced to reduce the virus spreading. Masks that are properly fitted can help prevent the virus from spreading from the person wearing the mask to others. Masks alone will not protect against COVID-19; they must be used in conjunction with physical separation and avoidance of direct contact. The fast spread of this disease, as well as the growing usage of prevention methods, underscore the critical need for a shift in biometrics-based authentication schemes. Biometrics systems are affected differently depending on whether are used as one of the preventive techniques based on COVID-19 pandemic rules. This study provides an
... Show MoreAbstract The study aimed at demonstrating the reality of sectarian coexistence in Iraq, which was characterized by the tolerance and coercion caused by the successive government policies to govern Iraq and to this day. The study was based on the hypothesis that coexistence between Islamic sects in Iraq can be achieved as long as there are strong bonds linking its components, and these bonds can produce coexistence between the sects based on peace. The study concluded that the hypothesis is correct, in addition to drawing a set of observations aimed at identifying weaknesses for advancing them through the adoption of mechanisms that address these weaknesses to yield towards a genuine peaceful coexistence among Islamic sects in Iraq.
Background: COVID-19 has caused a considerable number of hospital admissions in China since December 2019. Many COVID-19 patients experience signs of acute respiratory distress syndrome, and some are even in danger of dying. Objective: to measure the serum levels of D-dimer, Neutrophil-Lymphocyte count ratio (NLR), and neopterin in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 in Baghdad, Iraq. And to determine the cut-off values (critical values) of these markers for the distinction between the severe patients diagnosed with COVID‐19 and the controls. Materials and methods: In this case-control study, we collect blood from 89 subjects, 45 were severe patients hospitalized in many Baghdad medical centers who were diagnosed with COVID
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