The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This study aims to model the flank wear prediction equation in metal cutting, depending on the workpiece material properties and almost cutting conditions. A new method of energy transferred solution between the cutting tool and workpiece was introduced through the flow stress of chip formation by using the Johnson-Cook model. To investigate this model, an orthogonal cutting test coupled with finite element analysis was carried out to solve this model and finding a wear coefficient of cutting 6061-T6 aluminum and the given carbide tool.
In the literature, several correlations have been proposed for hold-up prediction in rotating disk contactor. However,
these correlations fail to predict hold-up over wide range of conditions. Based on a databank of around 611
measurements collected from the open literature, a correlation for hold up was derived using Artificial Neiral Network
(ANN) modeling. The dispersed phase hold up was found to be a function of six parameters: N, vc , vd , Dr , c d m / m ,
s . Statistical analysis showed that the proposed correlation has an Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 6.52%
and Standard Deviation (SD) 9.21%. A comparison with selected correlations in the literature showed that the
developed ANN correlation noticeably
Surge pressure is supplemental pressure because of the movement of the pipes downward and the swab pressure is the pressure reduction as a result of the drill string's upward movement. Bottom hole pressure is reduced because of swabbing influence. An Investigation showed that the surge pressure has great importance for the circulation loss problem produced by unstable processes in the management pressure drilling (MPD) actions. Through Trip Margin there is an increase in the hydrostatic pressure of mud that compensates for the reduction of bottom pressure due to stop pumping and/or swabbing effect while pulling the pipe out of the hole. This overview shows suggested mathematical/numerical models for simulating surge pressure problems ins
... Show MoreRutting is a crucial element of the mechanical performance characteristics of asphalt mixtures, which was the primary target of this study. The task involved substituting various portions of virgin coarse aggregate with recycled concrete aggregate materials that had been treated or left untreated at rates ranging from 25 to 100%, with a constant increase of 25%. The treatment process of recycled concrete aggregate involved soaking in acetic acid, followed by a mechanical process for a short time inside a Los Angeles machine without the balls. This research utilized two primary tests: the standard Marshall test to identify the optimal asphalt contents and the volumetric characteristics of asphalt mixtures. The other one w
... Show MoreAn application of neural network technique was introduced in modeling the point efficiency of sieve tray, based on a
data bank of around 33l data points collected from the open literature.Two models proposed,using back-propagation
algorithm, the first model network consists: volumetric liquid flow rate (QL), F foctor for gas (FS), liquid density (pL),
gas density (pg), liquid viscosity (pL), gas viscosity (pg), hole diameter (dH), weir height (hw), pressure (P) and surface
tension between liquid phase and gas phase (o). In the second network, there are six parameters as dimensionless
group: Flowfactor (F), Reynolds number for liquid (ReL), Reynolds number for gas through hole (Reg), ratio of weir
height to hole diqmeter
The shear strength of soil is one of the most important soil properties that should be identified before any foundation design. The presence of gypseous soil exacerbates foundation problems. In this research, an approach to forecasting shear strength parameters of gypseous soils based on basic soil properties was created using Artificial Neural Networks. Two models were built to forecast the cohesion and the angle of internal friction. Nine basic soil properties were used as inputs to both models for they were considered to have the most significant impact on soil shear strength, namely: depth, gypsum content, passing sieve no.200, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, water content, dry unit weight, and initial
... Show MoreA pure posteriorly posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysm represents a surgical challenge. This is mainly when there is a need for good exposure of the aneurysmal neck, sac, PCoA, and anterior choroidal arteries. Ruptured pure posteriorly directed PCoA aneurysm imposes significantly extra challenge as the surgeon undergoes dissection through a tight brain. Even with measures commonly used to attain brain relaxation like the lumbar drain and cisternal fenestration. Here, we describe a technique for posterior temporal pole mobilization (TPM) as an integrated part of microsurgical clipping of ruptured pure posteriorly directed PCoA aneurysms. This technique is implicated in twenty-three successive cases of ruptured PCoA aneurys
... Show MoreThe presented work shows a preliminary analytic method for estimation of load and pressure distributions on low speed wings with flow separation and wake rollup phenomena’s. A higher order vortex panel method is coupled with the numerical lifting line theory by means of iterative procedure including models of separation and wake rollup. The computer programs are written in FORTRAN which are stable and efficient.
The capability of the present method is investigated through a number of test cases with different types of wing sections (NACA 0012 and GA(W)-1) for different aspect ratios and angles of attack, the results include the lift and drag curves, lift and pressure distributions along the wing s
... Show MoreIn this paper, the effect size measures was discussed, which are useful in many estimation processes for direct effect and its relation with indirect and total effects. In addition, an algorithm to calculate the suggested measure of effect size was suggested that represent the ratio of direct effect to the effect of the estimated parameter using the Regression equation of the dependent variable on the mediator variable without using the independent variable in the model. Where this an algorithm clear the possibility to use this regression equation in Mediation Analysis, where usually used the Mediator and independent variable together when the dependent variable regresses on them. Also this an algorithm to show how effect of the
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