The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
In this study, a cholera model with asymptomatic carriers was examined. A Holling type-II functional response function was used to describe disease transmission. For analyzing the dynamical behavior of cholera disease, a fractional-order model was developed. First, the positivity and boundedness of the system's solutions were established. The local stability of the equilibrium points was also analyzed. Second, a Lyapunov function was used to construct the global asymptotic stability of the system for both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points. Finally, numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis were carried out using matlab software to demonstrate the accuracy and validate the obtained results.
The study aims to know the preference of the Iraqi consumer of imported dairy products to local, which has increased demand in recent years due to various reasons including commodity dumping policy that Iraq has been suffering since 2003, which has led to decline in the role of local dairy product in our markets and its inability to compete with imported product for different reasons. The research utilized questionnaire as a survey tool of the opinions of a sample of Iraqi 92 consumers in Baghdad/Alrisafa. The questionnaire consisted of twenty questions included the four components of marketing mixture (product quality, price, place, and promotion). Weighted mean and percentage weight used for data analysis. The study showed that the mos
... Show MoreNanosilica was extracted from rice husk, which was locally collected from the Iraqi mill at Al-Mishikhab district in Najaf Governorate, Iraq. The precipitation method was used to prepared Nanosilica powder from rice husk ash, after treating it thermally at 700°C, followed by dissolving the silica in the alkaline solution and getting a sodium silicate solution. Two samples of the final solution were collected to study the effect of filtration on the purity of the sample by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). The result shows that the filtered samples have purity above while the non-filtered sample purity was around The structure analysis investigated by the X-ray diffraction (XRD), found that the Nanosilica powder has an amorphous
... Show MoreThis study was carrid out to produce animal gelatin from chicken skin. Gelatin was prepared by the chemical method using HCl 2% and extraction at the temperature degree 70, 80, 90 c° and at the period of time 4, 6, 8 hours, calculated the yield, functional and sensory characteristics were measured at. The result also demonstrated that the produced gelatin have good functional properties in solubility, viscosity, gelling capacity, water absorpation, lipid binding, emulsification. viscosity was higher in gelatin prepared at 70 c° and period of extraction 8 hours and reached 1.0846 cp. Gelatin prepared were featured by highe gelling capacity at 1% for all extraction time periods. The produced gelatin was characterized by good sensory qual
... Show MoreThe preparation of activated carbon (AC) from date stones by using microwave assisted K2CO3 activation was investigated in this paper. The influence of radiation time, radiation power, and impregnation ratio on the yield and methylene blue (MB) uptake of such carbon were studied. Based on Box-Wilson central composite design, two second order polynomial models were developed to correlate the process variables to the two responses. From the analysis of variance the significant variables on each response were identified. Optimum coditions of 8 min radiation time, 660 W radiation power and 1.5 g/g impregnation ratio gave 460.123 mg/g MB uptake and 19.99 % yield. The characteristics of the AC were examined by pore structure analysis, and scan
... Show MoreThe process of discharging the quantities of dyes resulting from industrial processes with wastewater leads to the occurrence of a serious environmental problem that threatens the environmental health security of humans. Therefore, a number of studies have been addressed that include presenting many physical and chemical treatment methods to get rid or reduce the proportion of pigments such as biological decomposition, ion exchange, and sedimentation. Chemotherapy, reverse osmosis, coagulation, Toxic sludge generation, flocculation. In addition to the above, this review deals with a number of studies that present activated carbon of plant origin, methods of obtaining it, types and advantages of it being cheap and environmentally friendly. A
... Show MoreAdsorption techniques are widely used to remove organics pollutants from waste water particularly, when using low cost adsorbent available in Iraq. Al-Khriet powder which was found in legs of Typha Domingensis is used as bio sorbent for removing phenolic compounds from aqueous solution. The influence of adsorbent dosage and contact time on removal percentage and adsorb ate amount of phenol and 4- nitro phenol onto Al-Khriet were studied. The highest adsorption capacity was for 4-nitrophenol 91.5% than for phenol 82% with 50 mg/L concentration, 0.5 gm. dosage of adsorbent and pH 6 under a batch condition. The experimental data were tested using different isotherm models. The results show that Freundlich model resulted in the best fit also
... Show MoreThis studies deals with investigated the potential of a Iraqi bentonite clay for the adsorption of bromo phenol red dye from contaminated water. Impulse adsorption experiments were performed. The contact time influence of initial dye concentration, temperature, pH, ionic strength, partical size adsorbent and adsorbent dosage on bromo phenol red adsorption are investigated in a series of batch adsorption experiments. Adsorption equilibrium data were analyzed and described by the Freundlich, Langmuir and temkin isotherms equations. Thermodynamic parameters inclusive the Gibbs free energy (∆G• ), enthalpy (∆H• ), and entropy (∆S• ), were also calculated. These parameters specified that adsorption of bromo phenol red onto bentonite
... Show MoreAbstract The surface of kaolin was diagnosed by an AFM and the results were shown The height of the highest peak reached by a quantity of Kaolin surface is 2.5 µm, the granules, and their diameter with an average diameter of 666.1nm. Using Kaolin's adsorption properties, erythrosine was removed of its aqueous solution. It was determined that the maximal dye adsorption ranged 36.53–40.61%. The results of using the Freundlich, Langmuir, and Temkin adsorption isotherms revealed that at temperatures of (298,308,318) K, the Freundlich model was followed, the Langmuir model did not match, and the Temkin model could only be partially applied. There is also physical adsorption. One of the three kinetic models of the
... Show MoreLiquid-liquid membrane extraction technique, pertraction, using three types of solvents (methyl isobutyl ketone, n-butyl acetate, and n-amyl acetate) was used for recovery of penicillin V from simulated fermentation broth under various operating conditions of pH value (4-6) for feed and (6-8) for receiver phase, time (0-40 min), and agitation speed (300-500 rpm) in a batch laboratory unit system. The optimum conditions for extraction were at pH of 4 for feed, and 8 for receiver phase, rotation speed of 500 rpm, time of 40 min, and solvent of MIBK as membrane, where more than 98% of penicillin was extracted.