The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
In the present work a modification was made on three equations to represent the
experiment data which results for Iraqi petroleum and natural asphalt. The equations
have been developed for estimating the chemical composition and physical properties
of asphalt cement at different temperature and aging time. The standard deviations of
all equations were calculated.
The modified correlation related to the aging time and temperature with penetration
index and durability index of aged petroleum and natural asphalts were developed.
The first equation represents the relationship between the durability index with aging
time and temperature.
loge(DI)=a1+0.0123(2loge T
... Show MoreIn this study the simple pullout concrete cylinder specimen reinforced by a single steel bar was analyzed for bond-slip behavior. Three-dimension nonlinear finite element model using ANSYS program was employed to study the behavior of bond between concrete and plain steel reinforcement. The ANSYS model includes eight-noded isoperimetric brick element (SOLID65) to model the concrete cylinder while the steel reinforcing bar was modeled as a truss member (LINK8). Interface element (CONTAC52) was used in this analysis to model the bond between concrete and steel bar. Material nonlinearity due to cracking and/or crushing of concrete, and yielding of the steel reinforcing bar were taken into consideration during the analysis. The accuracy of this
... Show MoreIn this study the simple pullout concrete cylinder specimen reinforced by a single steel bar was analyzed for bond-slip behavior. Three-dimension nonlinear finite element model using ANSYS program was employed to study the behavior of bond between concrete and plain steel reinforcement. The ANSYS model includes eight-noded isoperimetric brick element (SOLID65) to model the concrete cylinder while the steel reinforcing bar was modeled as a truss member (LINK8). Interface element (CONTAC52) was used in this analysis to model the bond between concrete and steel bar. Material nonlinearity due to cracking and/or crushing of concrete, and yielding of the steel reinforcing bar were taken into consideration during the analysis. The accuracy of t
... Show MoreThe shear strength of soil is one of the most important soil properties that should be identified before any foundation design. The presence of gypseous soil exacerbates foundation problems. In this research, an approach to forecasting shear strength parameters of gypseous soils based on basic soil properties was created using Artificial Neural Networks. Two models were built to forecast the cohesion and the angle of internal friction. Nine basic soil properties were used as inputs to both models for they were considered to have the most significant impact on soil shear strength, namely: depth, gypsum content, passing sieve no.200, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, water content, dry unit weight, and initial
... Show MoreThe evolution in the field of Artificial Intelligent (AI) with its training algorithms make AI very important in different aspect of the life. The prediction problem of behavior of dynamical control system is one of the most important issue that the AI can be employed to solve it. In this paper, a Convolutional Multi-Spike Neural Network (CMSNN) is proposed as smart system to predict the response of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed structure mixed the advantages of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with Multi -Spike Neural Network (MSNN) to generate the smart structure. The CMSNN has the capability of training weights based on a proposed training algorithm. The simulation results demonstrated that the proposed
... Show MoreAn application of neural network technique was introduced in modeling the point efficiency of sieve tray, based on a
data bank of around 33l data points collected from the open literature.Two models proposed,using back-propagation
algorithm, the first model network consists: volumetric liquid flow rate (QL), F foctor for gas (FS), liquid density (pL),
gas density (pg), liquid viscosity (pL), gas viscosity (pg), hole diameter (dH), weir height (hw), pressure (P) and surface
tension between liquid phase and gas phase (o). In the second network, there are six parameters as dimensionless
group: Flowfactor (F), Reynolds number for liquid (ReL), Reynolds number for gas through hole (Reg), ratio of weir
height to hole diqmeter
In the literature, several correlations have been proposed for hold-up prediction in rotating disk contactor. However,
these correlations fail to predict hold-up over wide range of conditions. Based on a databank of around 611
measurements collected from the open literature, a correlation for hold up was derived using Artificial Neiral Network
(ANN) modeling. The dispersed phase hold up was found to be a function of six parameters: N, vc , vd , Dr , c d m / m ,
s . Statistical analysis showed that the proposed correlation has an Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 6.52%
and Standard Deviation (SD) 9.21%. A comparison with selected correlations in the literature showed that the
developed ANN correlation noticeably
Prediction of accurate values of residual entropy (SR) is necessary step for the
calculation of the entropy. In this paper, different equations of state were tested for the
available 2791 experimental data points of 20 pure superheated vapor compounds (14
pure nonpolar compounds + 6 pure polar compounds). The Average Absolute
Deviation (AAD) for SR of 2791 experimental data points of the all 20 pure
compounds (nonpolar and polar) when using equations of Lee-Kesler, Peng-
Robinson, Virial truncated to second and to third terms, and Soave-Redlich-Kwong
were 4.0591, 4.5849, 4.9686, 5.0350, and 4.3084 J/mol.K respectively. It was found
from these results that the Lee-Kesler equation was the best (more accurate) one