The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Objective: To suggest a weighted measure to diagnose the reasons for the low student success ratios in mathematics concerning the third grade of intermediate schools in light of components educational system represented by: [Students, Teachers, Curriculum, and Environmental reasons (others reasons)] assuming differentiated and interrelated components, Also the effectiveness forming of these components according to the gender variable. Methods: Data collection tools were prepared by constructing two questionnaires for each of (Students and Teachers), which included a number of items that involved some domains for studied components of educational system, which demonstrated a high level of validity and reliability in the pilot study, in addi
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The decision maker needs to understand the strategic environment to be addressed through different means and methods. It is obvious that there is a difference between the three strategic environments (conflict environment, peace environment, post- peace environment) in terms of inputs and strategies to deal with each one of them. There is an urgent need to understand each pattern separately, analyze its inputs, and identify the factors and variables that affect the continuity of this situation (conflict, peace, post-peace). It is not appropriate to identify treatment without diagnosis of the condition, so it is very important to understand the type of strategic environment to be dealt with it.
... Show MoreNew series of metal ions complexes have been prepared from the new ligand [4-Amino-N-(5-methyl-isaxazol-3-yl)-benzenesulfonamide] derived from Sulfamethoxazole and 3-aminophenol. Accordingly, mono-nuclear Mn(II), Fe(III), Co (II), and Rh(III) complexes were prepared by the reaction of previous ligand with MnCl2.4H2O, CoCl2.6H2O, FeCl3.6H2O and RhCl3H2O, respectively. The compounds have been characterized by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), ultraviolet–visible (UV–vis), mass, 1H-, and 13C-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA& DSC) curve, Bohr magnetic (B.M.), elemental microanal
... Show MoreIn this paper the experimentally obtained conditions for the fusion splicing with photonic crystal fibers (PCF) having large mode areas were reported. The physical mechanism of the splice loss and the microhole collapse property of photonic crystal fiber (PCF) were studied. By controlling the arc-power and the arc-time of a conventional electric arc fusion splicer (FSM-60S), the minimum loss of splicing for fusion two conventional single mode fibers (SMF-28) was (0.00dB), which has similar mode field diameter. For splicing PCF (LMA-10) with a conventional single mode fiber (SMF-28), the loss was increased due to the mode field mismatch.
The study of biopolymers and their derivative materials had received a considerable degree of attention from researchers in the preparation of novel material. Biopolymers and their derivatives have a wide range of applications as a result of their bio-compatibility, bio-degradability and non-toxicity. In this paper, chitosan reacted with different aldehydes(2,4 –dichloro- benzaldehyde or 2-methyl benzaldehyde), different ketones (4-bromoacetophenone or 3-aminoacetophenone) to produce chitosan schiff base (1-4) . Chitosan schiff base (1-4) reacted with glutaric acid or adipic acid in acidic media in distilled water according to the steps of Fischer and Speier to produce compounds (5-12)
... Show MoreAim of the present study is Identification of specific gene for GPCR using specific primers .and identification of difference in PCR analysis in patients with heart thrombosis and compared with healthy, Sequencing of PCR product regarding GPCR compared for all three subject, Identification the similarity of human GPCR with local strain of yeast fifty healthy control and fifty patients with thrombosis which diagnosed medically with cardiac specific troponin t, troponin 1 levels and electro myocardiogram ECG. The aged for all subjects ranged (39-75) years patients were lying in cardiac care unit at Ibn- al- Nafees teaching hospital and Sheikh Zayed teaching hospital. Genomic DNA of whole blood was extracted from buffy coat and cell cu
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This research aims to assess the practice of physical activities by people with intellectual disabilities and its challenges during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from their families' point of view. The research sample consisted of (87) individuals from families with intellectual disabilities in the Makkah region. The sample was selected by the simple random method where the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. A questionnaire of (32) items was used as the research tool to collect data. The findings of the study showed that the assessment level of practicing physical activities by people with intellectual disabilities was low. The public facilities dimension ranked first with a moder
... Show MoreThe useful of remote sensing techniques in Environmental Engineering and another science is to save time, Coast and efforts, also to collect more accurate information under monitoring mechanism. In this research a number of statistical models were used for determining the best relationships between each water quality parameter and the mean reflectance values generated for different channels of radiometer operate simulated to the thematic Mappar satellite image. Among these models are the regression models which enable us to as certain and utilize a relation between a variable of interest. Called a dependent variable; and one or more independent variables
KHalaf Alhmar and what we get from his poem
In this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point
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