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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed Measure for Effect Size in Mediation Analysis with Solution to Some Mediation Process Problems
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In this paper, the effect size measures was discussed, which are useful in many estimation processes for direct effect and its relation with indirect and total effects. In addition, an algorithm to calculate the suggested measure of effect size was suggested that represent the ratio of direct effect to the effect of the estimated parameter using the Regression equation of the dependent variable on the mediator variable without using the independent variable in the model. Where this an algorithm clear the possibility to use this regression equation in Mediation Analysis, where usually used the Mediator and independent variable together when the dependent variable regresses on them. Also this an algorithm to show how effect of the

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The economic dimensions of the railway link between Iraq and Kuwait and the role of national alternatives (Faw port and the dry canal as a model(
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   Decision-makers in each country work to define a list of internal and external interests, goals and threats to their countries according to the nature of their awareness of these interests, goals and threats. 

  Hence, Iraq is not an exception to this rule, and the process of evaluating its interests and the objectives of its foreign policy is subject to the pattern of awareness of decision-makers and the influencing forces in defining its basic interests, which often witness some kind of difference in defining them, evaluating their importance and determining the size of the threats they face. And among these interests and threats that have witnessed a difference in the assessment of their

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 12 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design a Vegetative Filter Strips Length Using VFSMOD_W Model for Reducing Sediments and Pesticides
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 Abstract 

The vegetative filter strips (VFS) are a useful tool used for reducing the movement of sediment and pesticide in therivers. The filter strip’s soil can help in reducing the runoff volume by infiltration. However, the characteristics of VFS (i.e., length) are not recently identified depending on the estimation of VFS modeling performance. The aim of this research is to study these characteristics and determine acorrelation between filter strip length and percent reduction (trapping efficiency) for sediment, water, and pesticide. Two proposed pesticides(one has organic carbon sorption coefficient, Koc, of 147 L/kg which is more moveable than XXXX, and another one

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Plant Protection Research
First report of phytoplasma detection on sand olive, cowpea and alfalfa in Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 10 2022
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Cognition Construction of First Language of Translator ‎Education in Iraq: A Correlation Study
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The majority of Iraqi translator-student have problems at two main levels: the conceptual level and the productive level. From different perspectives, such problems are either related to ‘language’ or to ‘cognition’. This binary view is an indication to the implicit and interchangeable relationship between language and cognition. The relationship between cognition language and translator starts with the first language and its effect on the Iraqi translators. Identifying the effect is the aim of the present study. It is hypothesized that Iraqi students are negatively influenced by the problems and weaknesses of first language schema. This reflects the major claim and later concludes that first language instruction in the Iraq

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Shyness and its relation to feeling of psychological isolation among first intermediate students
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The study attempts to measure the level of shyness; the level of psychological isolation; to identify the relationship between shyness and psychological isolation; and to identify the differences between shyness and psychological isolation among first-intermediate students. To this end, a random sample comprised (187) male and female students was chosen for the academic year (2016-2017) from Baghdad \ Al-Rasafa. To measure the shyness and psychological isolation, the researcher designed two scales: one to measure the shyness composed of (37) items divided into four domains; and the other to measure the psychological isolation made of (56) items divided into three domains. The study concluded that the sample has a medium level of shyness;

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Women's Health And Reproduction Sciences
Role of Maternal Serum Glycodelin as Predictor of Ectopic Pregnancy in First Trimester
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Objectives: Assessment of glycodelin (GD) as a marker for unruptured ectopic pregnancy (EP) in the first trimester of pregnancy. Materials and Methods: This case-control study was conducted during June 2016 to May 2017 in the Obstetrics and Gynecological Department of Baghdad University at Baghdad teaching hospital/medical city complex. In this study, 100 pregnant women in their first trimester of pregnancy were included after clinical and ultrasonic findings. Results: Based on the results, GD levels in EP were significantly lower than those with normal intrauterine pregnancy (1.58 ± 1.18 vs. 30.1 ± 11.9). In addition, using receiver operator curve analysis, the cut-off GD level of 9.5 and less had acceptable validity results (100

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
FIRST OBSERVATIONS ON Phrynocephalus maculatus longicaudatus Haas, 1957 (SQUAMATA: SAURIA: AGAMIDAE) IN IRAQ
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    The present paper confirmed the presence of Phrynocephalus maculatus longicaudatus Haas, 1957 in Iraq and recorded the first observations of this taxon in Al-Muthanna province southwestern of Iraq. The existence of the species is yet uncertain in Iraq. The habitat and morphological characteristics of this species were reviewed.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of KUD Strategy on Acquiring Grammatical Concepts among First Intermediate Students
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The research aims to examine the effect of KUD strategy on acquiring the grammatical concepts among intermediate school students. To achieve the research objective, the researcher adopted the null hypothesis in which there is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the average scores of students of the experimental group who study grammar base on the KUD strategy and the average scores of the control group who study the grammar through the traditional way of acquiring grammatical concepts. In a random manner, the researcher selected the research sample from one of Baghdad’s education schools in al Rusafa / 2, as the total number of students of the two groups reached (67) students. They were divided into (33)

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 28 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Standard scores and levels for certain legal situations among first-class basketball referees
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The significance of the research lies in the fact that electronic technologies represent an important step in evaluating legal situations, and the research problem centered on the lack of attention to visual requirements and the absence of a clear image of legal situations that may be difficult for the referee to apply correctly in addition to the lack of focus on visual requirements and the unclear depiction of some legal cases which make it difficult for the referee to interpret them correctly This is because the referee's main tool is visual perception, which interprets live situations such as violations, fouls, and other cases that arise during a game Moreover, there are numerous responses and challenges in evaluating legal situ

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