The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
ABSTRACT
This research included the preparation and characterization of new demulsifies from natural and synthetic polymers of chitosan and polyvinyl alcohol that are environmentally friendly and at the same time have high efficacy comparable to emulsifiers. imported foreign. The prepared compounds were examined using infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and all the spectral signals of the polymers were in good agreement with the chemical composition of the polymers. And the melting and decomposition that occur on polymers at high temperatures. The effect of the length and type of side chain in the compositions of polymers on the process of water separation of oil emulsions w
... Show MoreIn this study, multi-objective optimization of nanofluid aluminum oxide in a mixture of water and ethylene glycol (40:60) is studied. In order to reduce viscosity and increase thermal conductivity of nanofluids, NSGA-II algorithm is used to alter the temperature and volume fraction of nanoparticles. Neural network modeling of experimental data is used to obtain the values of viscosity and thermal conductivity on temperature and volume fraction of nanoparticles. In order to evaluate the optimization objective functions, neural network optimization is connected to NSGA-II algorithm and at any time assessment of the fitness function, the neural network model is called. Finally, Pareto Front and the corresponding optimum points are provided and
... Show MoreThe eggshell cuticle is the proteinaceous outermost layer of the eggshell which regulates water exchange and protects against entry of micro-organisms. Outer eggshell and cuticle protein was extracted from domestic chicken. The aim of the research is to find out the effect of the treated and untreated nano particles of egg shells with micro wave cold plasma on the effectiveness of E. coli (negative bacteria) that infect the skin and measure the diameter of bacterial inhibition zone, the eggshell has been prepared by a chemical method (sol gel) and measure the level of acidity and the PH is neutral. The result of Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) shows that the particles diameters become smaller with nano-particles solution than for egg
... Show MoreSilver nanoparticles synthesized by different species
Anger is one of the problems of scientific importance that psychologists and education scientists are interested in, especially societies and educational environments, because if a child’s anger continues to develop into violence, then it becomes an unusual behavior, and an indication of the child's lack of adaptation to his family and his environment (Moses, 2013: 4) &n
... Show Moreيتضمن ھذا البحث تحضير وتشخيص بعض المعقدات الفلزية التي تحوي على ليكاندات مختلطة ل (Amoxicillin)( Axn (و(Picoline-٣) (Pic-٣ (وقد تم دراسة ھذه المعقدات بالطرائق الطيفية (اIشعة تحت الحمراء و اIشعة المرئية –فوق البنفسجية والتوصيلية الموIرية والحساسية المغناطيسية ، ومن نتائج ھذه الدراسات التشخيصية امكن اعطاء الصيغة المقترحة العامة لھذه المعقدات و كاIتي
In this paper, the human robotic leg which can be represented mathematically by single input-single output (SISO) nonlinear differential model with one degree of freedom, is analyzed and then a simple hybrid neural fuzzy controller is designed to improve the performance of this human robotic leg model. This controller consists from SISO fuzzy proportional derivative (FPD) controller with nine rules summing with single node neural integral derivative (NID) controller with nonlinear function. The Matlab simulation results for nonlinear robotic leg model with the suggested controller showed that the efficiency of this controller when compared with the results of the leg model that is controlled by PI+2D, PD+NID, and F
... Show MorePetroleum is one of the most important substances consumed by man at present times, a major energy source in this century, petroleum oils can cause environmental pollution during various stages of production, transportation, refining and use, petroleum hydrocarbons pollutions ranging from soil, ground water to marine environment, become an inevitable problem in the modern life, current study focused on bioremediation process of hydrocarbons contaminants that remaining in the bottom of gas cylinders and discharged to the soil. Twenty-four bacterial isolates were isolated from contaminated soils all of them gram negative bacteria, bacterial isolates screening to investigate the ability of biodegradation of hydrocarbons, these isolates inocula
... Show MoreThe present study was conducted to investigate the relationship between critical thinking, epistemological beliefs, and learning strategies with the academic performance of high school first-grade male and female students in Yazd. For this purpose, from among all first-grade students, as many as 250 students (130 females and 120 males) were selected by using multistage cluster sampling. The data needed were then collected through using California Critical Thinking Skills Test, Schommer's Epistemological Beliefs Questionnaire, Biggs’ Revised Two Factor Study Process Questionnaire. The findings indicated that there is a positive significant relationship between critical thinking and academic performance and achievement. Moreover, four fa
... Show MoreObjective: To suggest a weighted measure to diagnose the reasons for the low student success ratios in mathematics concerning the third grade of intermediate schools in light of components educational system represented by: [Students, Teachers, Curriculum, and Environmental reasons (others reasons)] assuming differentiated and interrelated components, Also the effectiveness forming of these components according to the gender variable. Methods: Data collection tools were prepared by constructing two questionnaires for each of (Students and Teachers), which included a number of items that involved some domains for studied components of educational system, which demonstrated a high level of validity and reliability in the pilot study, in addi
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