The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Nuclear emission rates for nucleon-induced reactions are theoretically calculated based on the one-component exciton model that uses state density with non-Equidistance Spacing Model (non-ESM). Fair comparison is made from different state density values that assumed various degrees of approximation formulae, beside the zeroth-order formula corresponding to the ESM. Calculations were made for 96Mo nucleus subjected to (N,N) reaction at Emax=50 MeV. The results showed that the non-ESM treatment for the state density will significantly improve the emission rates calculated for various exciton configurations. Three terms might suffice a proper calculation, but the results kept changing even for ten terms. However, five terms is found to give
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to propose and evaluate an eco-epidemiological model with Allee effect and nonlinear harvesting in predators. It was assumed that there is an SI-type of disease in prey, and only portion of the prey would be attacked by the predator due to the fleeing of the remainder of the prey to a safe area. It was also assumed that the predator consumed the prey according to modified Holling type-II functional response. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and the local and global stabilities were investigated. The possibility of occurrence of local bifurcation was also studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of
... Show MoreIn this study, we set up and analyze a cancer growth model that integrates a chemotherapy drug with the impact of vitamins in boosting and strengthening the immune system. The aim of this study is to determine the minimal amount of treatment required to eliminate cancer, which will help to reduce harm to patients. It is assumed that vitamins come from organic foods and beverages. The chemotherapy drug is added to delay and eliminate tumor cell growth and division. To that end, we suggest the tumor-immune model, composed of the interaction of tumor and immune cells, which is composed of two ordinary differential equations. The model’s fundamental mathematical properties, such as positivity, boundedness, and equilibrium existence, are exami
... Show MoreThe theme of this Study presents analysis and discuss to the "Share the framework for assessing inflation," a practical study in a sample of joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the years (2009-2013). To determine the extent of the disparity between the nominal value of shares (Nominal Value) before deducting inflation and the real value (Real Value) per share, after deducting inflation in the case of zero growth. The study relied on annual reports of the companies of the research sample of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as the Iraqi Securities Commission. Besides the annual reports issued by the Ministry of Planning, as well as annual reports and statistical bulletin issued by the Central Bank of Iraq. It is fra
... Show MoreThe dynamical behavior of a two-dimensional continuous time dynamical system describing by a prey predator model is investigated. By means of constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, sufficient condition is derived for the global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium of the system. The Hopf bifurcation analysis is carried out. The numerical simulations are used to study the effect of periodic forcing in two different parameters. The results of simulations show that the model under the effects of periodic forcing in two different parameters, with or without phase difference, could exhibit chaotic dynamics for realistic and biologically feasible parametric values.
A series of laboratory model tests has been carried out to investigate the using of pomegranate sticks mat as reinforcement to increase the bearing capacity of footing on loose sand. The influence of depth and length of pomegranate sticks layer was examined. In the present research single layer of pomegranate sticks reinforcement was used to strengthen the loose sand stratum beneath the strip footing. The dimensions of the used foundation were 4*20 cm. The reinforcement layer has been embedded at depth 2, 4 and 8 cm under surcharge stresses . Reinforcing layer with length of 8 and 16 cm were used. The final model test results indicated that the inclusion of pomegranate sticks reinforcement is very effective in improvement the loading cap
... Show MoreThis paper deals with two preys and stage-structured predator model with anti-predator behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the appearance of local and Hopf bifurcation of the system have been achieved, and it’s observed that near the free predator, the free second prey and the free first prey equilibrium points there are transcritical or pitchfork and no saddle node. While near the coexistence equilibrium point there is transcritical, pitchfork and saddle node bifurcation. For the Hopf bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point have been studied. Further, numerical analysis has been used to validate the main results.
Abstract
The problem of missing data represents a major obstacle before researchers in the process of data analysis in different fields since , this problem is a recurrent one in all fields of study including social , medical , astronomical and clinical experiments .
The presence of such a problem within the data to be studied may influence negatively on the analysis and it may lead to misleading conclusions , together with the fact that these conclusions that result from a great bias caused by that problem in spite of the efficiency of wavelet methods but they are also affected by the missing of data , in addition to the impact of the problem of miss of accuracy estimation
... Show MoreThe behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.
In the present study, free convection heat and mass transfer of fluid in a square packed bed enclosure is numerically investigated. For the considered geometrical shape, the left vertical wall of enclosure was assumed to be kept at high temperature and concentration while the opposite wall was kept at low temperature and concentration with insulating both the top and bottom walls of enclosure. The Brinkman– Forchheimer extended Darcy model was used to solve the momentum equations, while the energy equations for fluid and solid phases were solved by using the local thermal non-equilibrium (LTNE) model.Computations are performed for a range of the Darcy number from 10-5 to 10-1, the porosity from 0.5 to 0.9, and buoyancy ratio from -15 t
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