The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
In this paper, a compartmental differential epidemic model of COVID-19 pandemic transmission is constructed and analyzed that accounts for the effects of media coverage. The model can be categorized into eight distinct divisions: susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, quarantine class, infected individuals, isolated class, infectious material in the environment, media coverage, and recovered individuals. The qualitative analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. Conversely, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is bigger than one. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which
... Show MoreThe current research aims to study (the effect of strategy of analysis - synthesis duality in the collection of scientific fourth stage students and high-order thinking in Biology material). For evidence the objective of the research, the researcher formulated the following two null hypotheses: 1. There is no significant difference at the statistical level (0.05) between the average of scores of the experimental group students that will study according to the dualism strategy of analysis and structure and the average of scores of the controlled group students that will study according to the normal way in the collection. 2. There is no significant difference at the statistical level (0.05) between the average of scores of the experimenta
... Show MoreHeart disease is a significant and impactful health condition that ranks as the leading cause of death in many countries. In order to aid physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases, clinical datasets are available for reference. However, with the rise of big data and medical datasets, it has become increasingly challenging for medical practitioners to accurately predict heart disease due to the abundance of unrelated and redundant features that hinder computational complexity and accuracy. As such, this study aims to identify the most discriminative features within high-dimensional datasets while minimizing complexity and improving accuracy through an Extra Tree feature selection based technique. The work study assesses the efficac
... Show MoreThe evolution of thought, planning for Urban Communities in the second half of the twentieth century, through several successive stages. He was thought of planning urban communities depends on identifying the general plan for land uses of the project area as a basis for drawing charts the physical, social, economic, and put the general plan for land uses based on the terms of reference set by the number of experts in the ministries and agencies. I have lived cities in the Arab-Muslim region, during the transition period the natural and historic environment, urban, sophisticated balanced ways mentioned in the cultural, social, inspired by the teachings of Islam and the customs and traditions of the Arab social, put forth a set of
... Show MoreIn this paper, the effect size measures was discussed, which are useful in many estimation processes for direct effect and its relation with indirect and total effects. In addition, an algorithm to calculate the suggested measure of effect size was suggested that represent the ratio of direct effect to the effect of the estimated parameter using the Regression equation of the dependent variable on the mediator variable without using the independent variable in the model. Where this an algorithm clear the possibility to use this regression equation in Mediation Analysis, where usually used the Mediator and independent variable together when the dependent variable regresses on them. Also this an algorithm to show how effect of the
... Show MoreThe presented work shows a preliminary analytic method for estimation of load and pressure distributions on low speed wings with flow separation and wake rollup phenomena’s. A higher order vortex panel method is coupled with the numerical lifting line theory by means of iterative procedure including models of separation and wake rollup. The computer programs are written in FORTRAN which are stable and efficient.
The capability of the present method is investigated through a number of test cases with different types of wing sections (NACA 0012 and GA(W)-1) for different aspect ratios and angles of attack, the results include the lift and drag curves, lift and pressure distributions along the wing s
... Show MoreAbstract
The problem of missing data represents a major obstacle before researchers in the process of data analysis in different fields since , this problem is a recurrent one in all fields of study including social , medical , astronomical and clinical experiments .
The presence of such a problem within the data to be studied may influence negatively on the analysis and it may lead to misleading conclusions , together with the fact that these conclusions that result from a great bias caused by that problem in spite of the efficiency of wavelet methods but they are also affected by the missing of data , in addition to the impact of the problem of miss of accuracy estimation
... Show MoreInflammatory control is essential to diminish injury and make renal injury treatment simpler. Proposed therapeutics have primarily targeted pro-inflammatory variables. Juniperus oxycedrus was frequently used to treat a variety of infectious disorders, hyperglycemia, obesity, TB, bronchitis, inflammation, and pneumonia. Juniperus oxycedrus twigs and leaves were defatted with n-hexane using Soxhlet apparatus then the residue of plant material dried and re-extracted sequentially by two different solvents Ethylacetate and methanol. The pro-inflammatory markers IL-1 and iNOS, as well as the potential kidney biomarker KIM-1, TNF-α, and transcription factor NF-KB were measured using the RealTime Quantitative qPCR method. The results showed that J
... Show MoreThe behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.
In the present study, free convection heat and mass transfer of fluid in a square packed bed enclosure is numerically investigated. For the considered geometrical shape, the left vertical wall of enclosure was assumed to be kept at high temperature and concentration while the opposite wall was kept at low temperature and concentration with insulating both the top and bottom walls of enclosure. The Brinkman– Forchheimer extended Darcy model was used to solve the momentum equations, while the energy equations for fluid and solid phases were solved by using the local thermal non-equilibrium (LTNE) model.Computations are performed for a range of the Darcy number from 10-5 to 10-1, the porosity from 0.5 to 0.9, and buoyancy ratio from -15 t
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