The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The dynamical behavior of a two-dimensional continuous time dynamical system describing by a prey predator model is investigated. By means of constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, sufficient condition is derived for the global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium of the system. The Hopf bifurcation analysis is carried out. The numerical simulations are used to study the effect of periodic forcing in two different parameters. The results of simulations show that the model under the effects of periodic forcing in two different parameters, with or without phase difference, could exhibit chaotic dynamics for realistic and biologically feasible parametric values.
A series of laboratory model tests has been carried out to investigate the using of pomegranate sticks mat as reinforcement to increase the bearing capacity of footing on loose sand. The influence of depth and length of pomegranate sticks layer was examined. In the present research single layer of pomegranate sticks reinforcement was used to strengthen the loose sand stratum beneath the strip footing. The dimensions of the used foundation were 4*20 cm. The reinforcement layer has been embedded at depth 2, 4 and 8 cm under surcharge stresses . Reinforcing layer with length of 8 and 16 cm were used. The final model test results indicated that the inclusion of pomegranate sticks reinforcement is very effective in improvement the loading cap
... Show MoreThis paper deals with two preys and stage-structured predator model with anti-predator behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the appearance of local and Hopf bifurcation of the system have been achieved, and it’s observed that near the free predator, the free second prey and the free first prey equilibrium points there are transcritical or pitchfork and no saddle node. While near the coexistence equilibrium point there is transcritical, pitchfork and saddle node bifurcation. For the Hopf bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point have been studied. Further, numerical analysis has been used to validate the main results.
A liquid membrane process of Alkaloids extraction from Datura Innoxia solution was studied applying pertraction process in rotating discs contactor (RDC). Decane as a liquid membrane and dilute sulphuric acid as stripping solution were used. The effect of the fundamental parameters influencing the transport process, eg type of solvent used, effect of disks speed, amount of liquid membrane and effect of pH for feed and strip solution. The transport of alkaloids was analysed on the basis of kinetic laws of two consecutive irreversible first order reactions. Thus, the kinetic parameters (k1, k1,, tmax, and) for the transport of alkaloids were determined. The effect of organic membrane type on percentage of Alkaloids transport was found to be i
... Show MoreAdsorption techniques are widely used to remove organics pollutants from waste water particularly, when using low cost adsorbent available in Iraq. Al-Khriet powder which was found in legs of Typha Domingensis is used as bio sorbent for removing phenolic compounds from aqueous solution. The influence of adsorbent dosage and contact time on removal percentage and adsorb ate amount of phenol and 4- nitro phenol onto Al-Khriet were studied. The highest adsorption capacity was for 4-nitrophenol 91.5% than for phenol 82% with 50 mg/L concentration, 0.5 gm. dosage of adsorbent and pH 6 under a batch condition. The experimental data were tested using different isotherm models. The results show that Freundlich model resulted in the best fit also
... Show MoreSpent hydrodesulfurization (Co-Mo/γ-Al2O3) catalyst generally contains valuable metals like molybdenum (Mo), cobalt (Co), aluminium (Al) on a supporting material, such as γ-Al2O3. In the present study, a two stages alkali/acid leaching process was conducted to study leaching of cobalt, molybdenum and aluminium from Co-Mo/γ-Al2O3 catalyst. The acid leaching of spent catalyst, previously treated by alkali solution to remove molybdenum, yielded a solution rich in cobalt and aluminium.
The extraction of Eucalyptus oil from Iraqi Eucalyptus Camadulensis leaves was studded using water distillation methods. The amount of Eucalyptus oil has been determined in a variety of extraction temperature and agitation speed. The effect of water to Eucalyptus leaves (solvent to solid) ratio and particle size of Eucalyptus leaves has been studied in order to evaluate the amount of Eucalyptus oil. The optimum experimental condition for the Eucalyptus oil extraction was established as follows: 100 C extraction temperature, 200 rpm agitation speed; 0.5 cm leave particle size and 6: 1 ml: g amount of water to eucalyptus leaves Ratio.
The preparation of activated carbon (AC) from date stones by using microwave assisted K2CO3 activation was investigated in this paper. The influence of radiation time, radiation power, and impregnation ratio on the yield and methylene blue (MB) uptake of such carbon were studied. Based on Box-Wilson central composite design, two second order polynomial models were developed to correlate the process variables to the two responses. From the analysis of variance the significant variables on each response were identified. Optimum coditions of 8 min radiation time, 660 W radiation power and 1.5 g/g impregnation ratio gave 460.123 mg/g MB uptake and 19.99 % yield. The characteristics of the AC were examined by pore structure analysis, and scan
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