The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The effect of superficial gas velocity within the range 0.01-0.164 m/s on gas holdup (overall, riser and down comer), volumetric oxygen mass transfer coefficient, liquid circulation velocity was studied in an internal loop concentric tubes airlift reactor (working volume 45 liters). It was shown that as the usg increases the gas holdup and also the liquid circulation velocity increase. Also it was found that increasing superficial gas velocity lead to increase the interfacial area that increases the overall oxygen mass transfer coefficient. The hydrodynamic experimental results were modeled with the available equations in the literature. The predicted data gave an acceptable accuracy with the empirical data.
The final
... Show MoreNuclear emission rates for nucleon-induced reactions are theoretically calculated based on the one-component exciton model that uses state density with non-Equidistance Spacing Model (non-ESM). Fair comparison is made from different state density values that assumed various degrees of approximation formulae, beside the zeroth-order formula corresponding to the ESM. Calculations were made for 96Mo nucleus subjected to (N,N) reaction at Emax=50 MeV. The results showed that the non-ESM treatment for the state density will significantly improve the emission rates calculated for various exciton configurations. Three terms might suffice a proper calculation, but the results kept changing even for ten terms. However, five terms is found to give
... Show MoreThe dynamical behavior of a two-dimensional continuous time dynamical system describing by a prey predator model is investigated. By means of constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, sufficient condition is derived for the global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium of the system. The Hopf bifurcation analysis is carried out. The numerical simulations are used to study the effect of periodic forcing in two different parameters. The results of simulations show that the model under the effects of periodic forcing in two different parameters, with or without phase difference, could exhibit chaotic dynamics for realistic and biologically feasible parametric values.
In an earlier paper, the basic analytical formula for particle-hole nuclear state densities was derived for non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) approach. In this paper, an extension of the former equation was made to include pairing. Also a suggestion was made to derive the exact formula for the particle-hole state densities that depends exactly on Fermi energy and nuclear binding energies. The results indicated that the effects of pairing reduce the state density values, with similar dependence in the ESM system but with less strength. The results of the suggested exact formula indicated some modification from earlier non-ESM approximate treatment, on the cost of more calculation time
In this research, dynamical study of an SIR epidemical model with nonlinear direct incidence rate (Beddington-De Angelis ) type, and regress of treatment investigated .An analytical study to the model shows that there are two equilibrium points appear, the discussed successfully with sufficient condition, the existence of local bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation was analyzed, finally numerical simulations are done to explain the analytic studies.
The theme of this Study presents analysis and discuss to the "Share the framework for assessing inflation," a practical study in a sample of joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the years (2009-2013). To determine the extent of the disparity between the nominal value of shares (Nominal Value) before deducting inflation and the real value (Real Value) per share, after deducting inflation in the case of zero growth. The study relied on annual reports of the companies of the research sample of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as the Iraqi Securities Commission. Besides the annual reports issued by the Ministry of Planning, as well as annual reports and statistical bulletin issued by the Central Bank of Iraq. It is fra
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to propose and evaluate an eco-epidemiological model with Allee effect and nonlinear harvesting in predators. It was assumed that there is an SI-type of disease in prey, and only portion of the prey would be attacked by the predator due to the fleeing of the remainder of the prey to a safe area. It was also assumed that the predator consumed the prey according to modified Holling type-II functional response. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and the local and global stabilities were investigated. The possibility of occurrence of local bifurcation was also studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of
... Show MoreIn this study, we set up and analyze a cancer growth model that integrates a chemotherapy drug with the impact of vitamins in boosting and strengthening the immune system. The aim of this study is to determine the minimal amount of treatment required to eliminate cancer, which will help to reduce harm to patients. It is assumed that vitamins come from organic foods and beverages. The chemotherapy drug is added to delay and eliminate tumor cell growth and division. To that end, we suggest the tumor-immune model, composed of the interaction of tumor and immune cells, which is composed of two ordinary differential equations. The model’s fundamental mathematical properties, such as positivity, boundedness, and equilibrium existence, are exami
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