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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 22 2023
Journal Name
Advances In Structural Engineering
Experimental and finite element analysis of reinforced concrete multi-cell box girders retrofitted with carbon fiber reinforced polymer strips under torsion
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This study expands the state of the art in studies that assess torsional retrofit of reinforced concrete (RC) multi-cell box girders with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips. The torsional behavior of non-damaged and pre-damaged RC multi-cell box girder specimens externally retrofitted by CFRP strips was investigated through a series of laboratory experiments. It was found that retrofitting the pre-damaged specimens with CFRP strips increased the ultimate torsional capacity by more than 50% as compared to the un-damaged specimens subjected to equivalent retrofitting. This indicated that the retrofit has been less effective for the girder specimen that did not develop distortion beforehand as a result of pre-loading. From

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 22 2023
Journal Name
Advances In Structural Engineering
Experimental and finite element analysis of reinforced concrete multi-cell box girders retrofitted with carbon fiber reinforced polymer strips under torsion
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This study expands the state of the art in studies that assess torsional retrofit of reinforced concrete (RC) multi-cell box girders with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips. The torsional behavior of non-damaged and pre-damaged RC multi-cell box girder specimens externally retrofitted by CFRP strips was investigated through a series of laboratory experiments. It was found that retrofitting the pre-damaged specimens with CFRP strips increased the ultimate torsional capacity by more than 50% as compared to the un-damaged specimens subjected to equivalent retrofitting. This indicated that the retrofit has been less effective for the girder specimen that did not develop distortion beforehand as a result of pre-loading. From

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Violence and Extremism in Iraq: Approaches to Motives and Means of Confrontation
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     After the year 2003, Iraq went through multiple waves of violence and at different levels on the security, intellectual, political and social levels. Behind that stood several motives and incentives to enable violence that represented the first axis of research, the most important of which was the political motives that circulated an atmosphere that politics against society and transformed power into a field of political brutality against the individual and the group at once. There are also cultural, intellectual, media and economic motives such as weak cultural independence, poverty, marginalization, unemployment and want, and the absence of a media discourse that rejects violence but incites it, on the other ha

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Kirkuk University Journal For Agricultural Sciences
Contributions of small income-generating projects to the empowerment of rural women socially and economically in Al-Hamdaniya District / Nineveh Governorate
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The current research aims to identify the contributions of small income-generating projects in theempowerment of rural women in Nineveh Governorate ,Al-Hamdaniya district, as a simplerandom sample was drawn from the research community of 280 respondents , according to theRobert Mason equation at the level of significance 0.05, so the sample size was 162 respondents,i.e. a percentage 58% collected the necessary data using a questionnaire prepared as a basic toolfor data collection consisting of 20 items distributed on two axes ,and the results of the researchwere analyzed and presented using the spss statistical program, as well as manual analysis usingrepetitions, the weighted mean, the standard deviation, and the percentage weight. And the

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent of the

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent o

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Total Quality Management (TQM) Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq
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Total quality management  considers one of the modern scientific entrances  which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have  in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated.                          &n

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 08 2021
Journal Name
Public Works Management & Policy
Causes of Problems in Post-Disaster Emergency Re-Construction Projects—Iraq as a Case Study
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This study examines the causes of time delays and cost overruns in a selection of thirty post-disaster reconstruction projects in Iraq. Although delay factors have been studied in many countries and contexts, little data exists from countries under the conditions characterizing Iraq during the last 10-15 years. A case study approach was used, with thirty construction projects of different types and sizes selected from the Baghdad region. Project data was gathered from a survey which was used to build statistical relationships between time and cost delay ratios and delay factors in post disaster projects. The most important delay factors identified were contractor failure, redesigning of designs/plans and change orders, security is

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Some Estimation Methods for Mixed-Random Panel Data Regression Models with Serially Correlated Errors with Application
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This research includes the study of dual data models with mixed random parameters, which contain two types of parameters, the first is random and the other is fixed. For the random parameter, it is obtained as a result of differences in the marginal tendencies of the cross sections, and for the fixed parameter, it is obtained as a result of differences in fixed limits, and random errors for each section. Accidental bearing the characteristic of heterogeneity of variance in addition to the presence of serial correlation of the first degree, and the main objective in this research is the use of efficient methods commensurate with the paired data in the case of small samples, and to achieve this goal, the feasible general least squa

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 05 2019
Journal Name
مجلة الشرق الاوسط
الرؤية المستقبلية لدولة العراق في ضوء استراتيجية الفوضى الخلاقة
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تعد سياسة الفوضى الخلاقة سياسة هدم طبقتها الولايات المتحدة الامريكية على العراق بعد عام 2006